Will Parker Valby be fighting for the 10K Team for LA 2028?

If Monson is healthy and bounces back, I say it will be

1. Cranny, 2. Monson, and then it will be Houlihan (I believe she'll step back and move to the 10k), Valby, Roe, Schweizer, Kelati, Hartman, Tuohy, etc. fighting for the third spot.

A developing Grace Hartman will be a force to be reckoned with. Heard it here first, I think she will be an absolute aerobic monster in the 10k if she chooses to go for this event. Her depth from the mile to the 10k is outstanding.

It’s 3 years away. Who knows. A lot can happen (last time, Monson was injured, Cranny opted for 1500, Valby came out of nowhere.)

• Cranny and Schweizer will be 33
• Kelati will be 32 and running marathons
• Monson will be 31 and still has to come back from her serious knee injury
• Roe will be running the marathon
• Hartman has potential but no NC State runner has ever made an Olympic team, don't expect that to change
• Tuohy doesn't even need to be discussed
• Hedengren will focus on the 5K
• Halladay-Lowry has started a good trajectory and BYU runners have done well under Taylor as pros
• Valby will be in her prime and could potentially make both the 5K and 10K teams

Interesting take, but you’re seriously underestimating how competitive the U.S. distance scene will still be in 2028.
Cranny, Schweizer, Kelati, and Monson aren’t going to suddenly disappear because they’re in their early 30s. Look at the global stage—plenty of distance runners peak well into their 30s. If anything, their experience will be a huge advantage.
Saying Roe and Kelati will “be running marathons” is pure speculation. Both have range, and if they’re still competitive on the track, they’ll be in the mix for 10K spots.
Writing off Hartman because of an NC State stat is wild—historical trends don’t dictate future talent. She’s young and developing fast.
As for Tuohy, sure, she’s had setbacks, but “doesn’t even need to be discussed”? That’s a bold claim for someone with her talent. If she gets healthy, she’s a contender.
Hedengren and Halladay-Lowry are exactly the type of rising athletes who could move up in distance—lots of 5K runners end up thriving in the 10K as they mature.
And finally, yes, Valby could be in her prime by 2028—but assuming she’ll easily make both teams ignores how deep and unpredictable U.S. distance running is right now. She’s already dealing with injury concerns, and staying healthy in this sport is half the battle.
The point is—nothing is guaranteed. The field will be stacked, and counting out seasoned pros or young talent still developing is short-sighted. The 10K team for LA is going to be a dogfight, and that’s exactly what makes it exciting.

Monson will be 29...

Not sure I "heard it here first." She is becoming a fairly well known factor but is still under the radar a bit probably due to her blue collar work ethic that is without a lot of fanfare. She is not a flashy runner but is very determined and is a hard worker. I'm not sure that she will get Valby's NCAA 10K record but she will make a serious run at it and has the rest of this season and all of next season to do it. Kosegi is also a threat to get it.

I'm hoping that Valby gets back on track as well. There is a lot of US talent but who makes the teams is going to be a matter of who can stay healthy

Actually, we were both wrong. She will be 30.

Agree about Tuohy. She's still young having just turned 23 last month. I would like to see her come back and wouldn't count her out but between now and the end of the outdoor season we'll all know a lot more about where she is and where she is going. I still think that she would benefit from altitude and unless I'm mistaken, has not had any appreciable altitude training.

She's practically a super model. America is rooting for her.

Valby is an Olympian. Tuohy is slower than a high schooler. Valby will make the team. Tuohy will retire.

Man for 700k+ a year, New Balance certainly hopes so.

The entire thread is pure speculation.

I'll say this for Valby. I believe she is the 5th youngest US Olympian ever above 1500m (Huber 3000m, Kipp 3000SC, Coburn 3000SC, O'brien marathon). She could have competed in both the 5K and 10K in Paris if she wanted to but dropped the 5K. She was the alternate and moved up when another runner dropped. Making the team in two events at that age is possibly unprecedented. I do not believe anyone has ever made the Olympics in multiple events 800m and up at under age 22. Valby's last 100m at the Trials to run down Schweizer for 2nd showed how tough she is. She might look skinny and frail but she is one tough nut to crack. Like Wiley, the things Valby has done at a young age are simply historic. This is no guarantee of continued success, but both have successfully negotiated the potential puberty issues that afflict many female runners and neither has been running for a very long time. I expect both will end their careers as the best the US has ever produced at their respective events.