This trend has gone back even before the current era, last athlete to win more than once was Kiprop. This trend suggests Nuguse might get his moment, but could this be the year we see the first double winner in a while?
My own take is that I don't see Hocker or Cheruiyot winning, Wightman is definitely not winning, Ingebrigtsen will fall victim to the same thing as usual unless he has mastered tactics so Kerr has the highest chance of repeating even though in his current season trajectory I wouldn't bet on that either. So I think Nuguse taking it is actually semi-likely.
I like Nuguse's chances a lot. His kick is better than everyone except Hocker, who's a lot less consistent.
That said, I think the result of Worlds this year comes down to whether Jakob races like an idiot again or not. If he runs the race like he runs Euros or his prelims (goes out in dead last, works his way up for three laps, and then negative splits every 100m from 500m out) he'll win. If he tries to lead again or take control of the race, he'll prove he's probably the stupidest person to ever race the 1500m and will get outkicked yet again.
The fact that Jakob tried the strategy I mentioned in the Diamond League final last year gives me hope that he's finally learned. So I predict:
1. Jakob
2. Nuguse
3. Hocker
If he tries to lead again:
1. Nuguse
2. Hocker
3. Jakob
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Hard to predict. I didn't think Hocker had a much if a chance until I saw his close at USAs and even then, I didn't think he'd have the strength to do that in a sub-3:30 race. Right now, there's three guys who have proven they can out-kick Jakob in a sub-3:30 race (Kerr has now done it twice). It's hard to look beyond those four, but i wouldn't rule out someone having a breakout like Hocker did last year. Kessler and R. Cheruiyot spring to mind, or it might just be Nuguse's turn. Hocker probably starts the year as favourite, but I wouldn't put my h money in him
Hocker probably starts the year as favourite, but I wouldn't put my h money in him
Do you think Hocker is still the favorite in light of his recent race results? He's lost every race he's entered since the Olympics except a BU time trial and that random Virginia Tech 1k. Lausanne, Brussels, Zurich, Millrose, and the two Grand Slam races.
It's never a good idea to count out the reigning champion but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little nervous on his behalf.
This post was edited 29 seconds after it was posted.
Hocker probably starts the year as favourite, but I wouldn't put my h money in him
Do you think Hocker is still the favorite in light of his recent race results? He's lost every race he's entered since the Olympics except a BU time trial and that random Virginia Tech 1k. Lausanne, Brussels, Zurich, Millrose, and the two Grand Slam races.
It's never a good idea to count out the reigning champion but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little nervous on his behalf.
I wouldn’t say favourite, but I wouldn’t count him out at all. Even though he didn’t win, his battle over 3k with Fisher was over-distance and awesome.
He didn’t run blazing fast times last year leading up to the Olympics, and it’s early days yet.
Shaping up to be an incredible year… who can tell between Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse, Ingebrigtsen, even Kessler, Laros, Cheruiyot? Amazing time to be a fan.
Hocker probably starts the year as favourite, but I wouldn't put my h money in him
Do you think Hocker is still the favorite in light of his recent race results? He's lost every race he's entered since the Olympics except a BU time trial and that random Virginia Tech 1k. Lausanne, Brussels, Zurich, Millrose, and the two Grand Slam races.
It's never a good idea to count out the reigning champion but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little nervous on his behalf.
That's a fair assessment. There's mitigation around all that though. He had the post-Olympic comedown, which isn't unusual. Indoors, he was running over-distance so he would be more vulnerable in those races. The GST performance is a little unnerving for his fans, but he can say it's still early season - he wasn't at the races early last year either. Tbh, of the 1500 guys, only Jakob and Nuguse seem to be around their peaks throughout the entire year. The rest need to work towards it over the season.
I also think Hocker could do it again, but the 1500m is ridiculous right now. Who could predict anything? Aside from Kerr, all of the top 5 at the Olympics have run at a higher level this year indoors. Then you have guys like Myers and Laros, Wanyoni, etc.
I like Nuguse's chances a lot. His kick is better than everyone except Hocker, who's a lot less consistent.
That said, I think the result of Worlds this year comes down to whether Jakob races like an idiot again or not. If he runs the race like he runs Euros or his prelims (goes out in dead last, works his way up for three laps, and then negative splits every 100m from 500m out) he'll win. If he tries to lead again or take control of the race, he'll prove he's probably the stupidest person to ever race the 1500m and will get outkicked yet again.
The fact that Jakob tried the strategy I mentioned in the Diamond League final last year gives me hope that he's finally learned. So I predict:
1. Jakob
2. Nuguse
3. Hocker
If he tries to lead again:
1. Nuguse
2. Hocker
3. Jakob
Yeah, he’s an idiot but how does someone increase the pace for five consecutive 100s? If the pace is 2:00 or slower, what good does being dead last do for him. You seem to have him shortening the race to 500m and that’s not the way to beat the kickers.
What is it about your championship 1500m racing experience that makes you so much smarter than Jakob?