Sam Ruthe HISTORIC sub-4 attempt (Update: He did it -3:58.35!)

I don’t see why he wouldn’t crush 4:00 after he’s run 3:41.25 and most recently tied Sam Tanner with a 3:44 with what, 53.xx for the last 400?

I agree with you. I do think he's going to crush 4 (does a self-admitted conservative time of 3.57.3 not constitute crushing 4?)

I was not arguing with you or being critical of your prediction, I was merely offering my take.

I agree 3:57 is probably abt where he is, insane that a 15 year old isn't just in sub-4 shape, but is well under sub-4 shape. And honestly, with a 3:44 1500 and a 53 last lap, 3:55 high might be in the cards. I feel dumb saying 3:55 high for a 15 year old's first sub-4, but Sam Tanner has a 3:31 pb and just ran a 3:51 mile a couple weeks before Ruthe TIED him.

Tanner is in fantastic shape, and I get that it was a championship race with a big kick, but would we not expect Ruthe to be in similar fitness? Like ok, sure, maybe knock off 1 or 2 seconds to be safe, but he's still in 3:53 territory. Knock off another 2 and that's still 3:55. A 4s fitness difference seems like a lot to me but what do i know, maybe Ruthe has better speed bc he's younger? But Tanner ran 1:46.1 last season, so if Ruthe has better speed, would he be closer to 1:46-7? Anyway all that to say idk I'll be happy as long as he runs 3:59

Jesus I just looked up Ruthe and he was born in 2009 what the heck is this what old people feel like

They can't run this race at a decent time?! What the hell is wrong with New Zealanders? I'm not staying up until 2:00am to watch this and then need to be at work a few hours later.

Yes it is. We don't like it(just look at Armstrong). Please go slower. A 15 yo being faster than me is hard enough to accept as is.

I truly think he should do it and really want him too. Not only is he a joy to watch I love how he lives rent free in legweakdies head. My only slight concern is that if it is windy both his pacemakers are about 4 foot 2 so not much of a wind block.

Yomif Kejelelcha ran 4:57.74 for 2000m indoors when he was only 16 years old, younger than Ingebrigtsen. That is worth around 3:54-3:55 for the mile. Ruthe would need to run around 3:52 accounting for supershoes and trampoline tracks in order for this to be impressive.

Man on the ground in Auckland, Steen Fastenbender just sent me a pic from the motorway with a torrential rain storm passing through. This is a good thing - clean air and the increase of negative ion concentration in the air - perfect for distance running.

Hmm rain is pouring down pretty hard in this part of Auckland - 5.25pm.

I am not sure if he will break 4, maybe 50/50 odds here.

Not going to be a problem. Paru weather in Auckland clears up pretty quick - I bet if you cruised down to the Onehunga Mall it would be completely chur.

All will be fine.

Well my iphone predicts Onehunga will be rain free at 8pm so there is that.

Canadian on vacation and happen to be in Auckland. Thanks for the post!! Didn’t know. Gonna try and make it now. Raining right now but forecast says it should lighten up towards 20:00 so fingers crossed

You sound awfully local. Can you live stream it with your reactions?

Prediction:

Sam Ruthe - 3:58.99

Not a local. Canadian on vacation—conditions seem great. No rain. Not too hot. Officials were wiping the track. They invited folks into coned lanes 7/8 to cheer. I’m wearing a parkrun cap. Women first at 2000, men at 2015. Sam tanner ran by on a warmup as we were walking up to the stadium. Exciting!

Looking like it's all cleared just in time! ;)

Starting blocks ready!