How fast does a woman's 800 pr have to be to run a sub 4 mile?

Ppppppppp wrote:

These day probably 1:53 maybe 1:54 as the elite 1500m runners are more aerobically based than speed based. See 1:46 Jacob being a 3:43 guy. And it isn’t like Nuguse has a 1:43 to his name either.

Faith hasn’t run a lot of 800s but even if you give her a couple seconds, she is still going to be about a 1:56 runner. The list of sub 155 woman is very short and even shorter if you take out the people loaded up on 80s Soviet roids…..

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

Ppppppppp wrote:

These day probably 1:53 maybe 1:54 as the elite 1500m runners are more aerobically based than speed based. See 1:46 Jacob being a 3:43 guy. And it isn’t like Nuguse has a 1:43 to his name either.

Faith hasn’t run a lot of 800s but even if you give her a couple seconds, she is still going to be about a 1:56 runner. The list of sub 155 woman is very short and even shorter if you take out the people loaded up on 80s Soviet roids…..

sub-4 still requires a pretty insane level of basic speed, I would say 1:52.x is probably the bare minimum but even then she would need to also be a 13:3x runner.

realistically the first woman to break sub 4 will probably be around 1:51/14:00.

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

Ppppppppp wrote:

These day probably 1:53 maybe 1:54 as the elite 1500m runners are more aerobically based than speed based. See 1:46 Jacob being a 3:43 guy. And it isn’t like Nuguse has a 1:43 to his name either.

Faith hasn’t run a lot of 800s but even if you give her a couple seconds, she is still going to be about a 1:56 runner. The list of sub 155 woman is very short and even shorter if you take out the people loaded up on 80s Soviet roids…..

sub-4 still requires a pretty insane level of basic speed, I would say 1:52.x is probably the bare minimum but even then she would need to also be a 13:3x runner.

realistically the first woman to break sub 4 will probably be around 1:51/14:00.

007run wrote:

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

sub-4 still requires a pretty insane level of basic speed, I would say 1:52.x is probably the bare minimum but even then she would need to also be a 13:3x runner.

realistically the first woman to break sub 4 will probably be around 1:51/14:00.

I might be wrong in my logic here, but I thought it would take at least around 1:48 to 1:49 for women because the average time for men to have is around 1:50. Since men are physically stronger working off of 1:50 speed, I figured on average it would take a woman at least a second or two faster in the 800 to be in the sub 4 ballpark. Admittedly, I'm no expert on the biological differences this comparison entails, but that line of reasoning made sense to me.

007run wrote:

The recent wild Faith Kipyegon sub 4 mile science prediction got me thinking: how fast in the 800 will a woman have to be to realistically have a shot at a sub 4 mile? I know the average rule for men to run a sub 4 is at least 1:50 speed. Let's say someone with the speed of a Keely or Athing and Kipyegon's aerobic engine could get down to 1:52 or 1:51. Is that still too far off to have a shot at sub 4? Right off the top my head, I think maybe when the first 1:48ish 800 woman comes around, she might have a real shot at it. What do you think is necessary for a woman to break sub 4 in the mile?

Bruns wrote:

I don't think you can run under 4 if you can't run 1:51-1:52. That might not even do it.

Bruns wrote:

007run wrote:

The recent wild Faith Kipyegon sub 4 mile science prediction got me thinking: how fast in the 800 will a woman have to be to realistically have a shot at a sub 4 mile? I know the average rule for men to run a sub 4 is at least 1:50 speed. Let's say someone with the speed of a Keely or Athing and Kipyegon's aerobic engine could get down to 1:52 or 1:51. Is that still too far off to have a shot at sub 4? Right off the top my head, I think maybe when the first 1:48ish 800 woman comes around, she might have a real shot at it. What do you think is necessary for a woman to break sub 4 in the mile?

I don't think you can run under 4 if you can't run 1:51-1:52. That might not even do it.

007run wrote:

Bruns wrote:

I don't think you can run under 4 if you can't run 1:51-1:52. That might not even do it.

I'm kind of on this side here. 1:51-52 sounds like the slowest you could be to have a chance. I definitely don't think any woman can do it running 1:55 or 1:56. Some of the response here seem to be saying on average women could run a sub 4 with an 800 slower than 1:50. Maybe a few extraordinary outliers could it. Still, I just don't see how that works. Maybe I'm missing something here.

007run wrote:

Bruns wrote:

I don't think you can run under 4 if you can't run 1:51-1:52. That might not even do it.

I'm kind of on this side here. 1:51-52 sounds like the slowest you could be to have a chance. I definitely don't think any woman can do it running 1:55 or 1:56. Some of the response here seem to be saying on average women could run a sub 4 with an 800 slower than 1:50. Maybe a few extraordinary outliers could it. Still, I just don't see how that works. Maybe I'm missing something here.

interesting fax wrote:

Bruns wrote:

I don't think you can run under 4 if you can't run 1:51-1:52. That might not even do it.

The 800 world record for women is 1:53. This means it probably takes double new records, maybe 3000&5000 too for someone to ever get to 4:00.

Personally, I think a 1:55-56 athlete could do it. This would be more of a Cam Levins/Joe Klecker type of strength 4:00 miler, or the last 4:00 guy in heat #69 at BU, than a 48 400 type miler.

Obviously Kipyegon still interesting to watch, but also folks like Hull, Purrier and Wiley to see what they can do in run up to 2028.

predictors wrote:

You didn't understand the question. He didn't ask what an equivalent 800 is to a 4:00 mile. If we look at all of the men who run 3:59.9, their 800 will range from.1:43 for a 400-800 guy to 1:54 for a 5k/10k guy. The question was how fast it had to be in order to have a shot a breaking 4.