How would Jakob have faired at this years NCAAs?

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1 year ago 11/25/2024 11:01am EST

One of the annual questions we love to ponder on LR… how would have Jakob have faired at this year’s NCAA cross country championships?

At the ripe age of 24, he’d have fit right in with the BYU middle agers.

Could he have gone out slow like OSU’s 4-7, take a few water breaks, and still pick everyone off for the W? Or would he have gone out with the leaders, and made the move Graham Blanks made with a kilometer to go, but with much more authority with a 2:30 last kilometer close (Blanks went 2:45, but eased up the last 100 or so).

Or would he have fallen victim to what Wisconsin has to offer in his first appearance in America’s Dairyland, and not make it to the start line?

1 year ago 11/25/2024 11:08am EST

re: Euro takeover (parody thread)

Know this is a running joke, but here's my actual answer: Jakob would still win, but it would be relatively close. Blanks and Samuel are probably in sub 27 shape and are more pure 10k XC guys than Jakob.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 11:42am EST

re: Euro takeover (parody thread)

The word you're looking for is "fared."

1 year ago 11/25/2024 11:59am EST

re: Normal guy who pays attention

Normal guy who pays attention wrote:
The word you're looking for is "fared."

Homophones are tricky. I’m sure you’re not perfect with them. Their are so many off them. Write? Piece be with you and bee well.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:06pm EST

re: Euro takeover (parody thread)

He'd definitely be top 10.

Maybe even top 5

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:15pm EST

re: Euro takeover (parody thread)

He would have locked in with front pack through 7k and then won by 15 seconds looking easy.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:21pm EST

re: IngyBingy

IngyBingy wrote:
He'd definitely be top 10.
Maybe even top 5

Maybe top 5?

No offense to Dylan Schubert because he had an INCREDIBLE cross country season finishing 3rd this past weekend. But you can’t convince me that Jakob is losing to Schubert. Just no way.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:26pm EST

re: Euro takeover (parody thread)

Jakob could have run 7 time trials on the course creating a winning team time and 15 point score.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:41pm EST

re: peterpan

peterpan wrote:
Know this is a running joke, but here's my actual answer: Jakob would still win, but it would be relatively close. Blanks and Samuel are probably in sub 27 shape and are more pure 10k XC guys than Jakob.

Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:55pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
peterpan wrote:
Know this is a running joke, but here's my actual answer: Jakob would still win, but it would be relatively close. Blanks and Samuel are probably in sub 27 shape and are more pure 10k XC guys than Jakob.
Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.

0% chance Jakob doesn't win. Do you really think Blanks would drop him or out kick him? There's no way.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 12:59pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
peterpan wrote:
Know this is a running joke, but here's my actual answer: Jakob would still win, but it would be relatively close. Blanks and Samuel are probably in sub 27 shape and are more pure 10k XC guys than Jakob.
Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.

Did you see what happened to Jakob in that half marathon a few days after the track season when he reached his limit at the 10K point reached in around 2750? The Africans he was running with were just cruising, so to speak.

Obviously coming straight from the track season was not the best preparation but I think Jakob possibly had his limit around that 10K.

Others will argue that because Jakob runs around 180 kilometers per week and does double threshold he shouldn't have any trouble over the 10K distance.

I suspect most people here will favor Jakob over Blanks and so be it.

The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 1:03pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost… come on man. I have no words for this post. There’s no way you truly believe this. I won’t even bother posting a counterargument

1 year ago 11/25/2024 1:06pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.
Did you see what happened to Jakob in that half marathon a few days after the track season when he reached his limit at the 10K point reached in around 2750? The Africans he was running with were just cruising, so to speak.
Obviously coming straight from the track season was not the best preparation but I think Jakob possibly had his limit around that 10K.
Others will argue that because Jakob runs around 180 kilometers per week and does double threshold he shouldn't have any trouble over the 10K distance.
I suspect most people here will favor Jakob over Blanks and so be it.
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.

He hit the 10k in 27:27 in that race running 13:54/13:33, tell the truth.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 1:51pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.
Did you see what happened to Jakob in that half marathon a few days after the track season when he reached his limit at the 10K point reached in around 2750? The Africans he was running with were just cruising, so to speak.
Obviously coming straight from the track season was not the best preparation but I think Jakob possibly had his limit around that 10K.
Others will argue that because Jakob runs around 180 kilometers per week and does double threshold he shouldn't have any trouble over the 10K distance.
I suspect most people here will favor Jakob over Blanks and so be it.
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.

Olympic 5k final?

1 year ago 11/25/2024 2:15pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.
Did you see what happened to Jakob in that half marathon a few days after the track season when he reached his limit at the 10K point reached in around 2750? The Africans he was running with were just cruising, so to speak.
Obviously coming straight from the track season was not the best preparation but I think Jakob possibly had his limit around that 10K.
Others will argue that because Jakob runs around 180 kilometers per week and does double threshold he shouldn't have any trouble over the 10K distance.
I suspect most people here will favor Jakob over Blanks and so be it.
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.

That was after a long season where he primarily focused on the 1500 for the last several months. Ask Waskom, Cook, Spencer, or Sahlman to go run a 10k a few days after their collegiate 1500 meter final this past Spring. They are not going to run anywhere close compared to what they ran in their cross country season.

Right now, he has rested from a long 2024 season and his base training phase has shifted his training to higher mileage. He could handle this distance much better now than what he could have 2-3 months ago. Look at 2022 Euros and clock how fast he ran the last lap in the senior race compared to Charles Hicks (who won the U23 race and NCAAs that year, and U23 ran one fewer lap). Jakob closed in roughly 4:19 vs Hicks in 4:34.
He's not losing to Graham Blanks or Habtom Samuel. Those two are already making a name for themselves at the world stage, but Jakob would make them look silly in the last mile like he does at Euros.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 4:06pm EST

re: snowflakes

snowflakes wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
Did you see what happened to Jakob in that half marathon a few days after the track season when he reached his limit at the 10K point reached in around 2750? The Africans he was running with were just cruising, so to speak.
Obviously coming straight from the track season was not the best preparation but I think Jakob possibly had his limit around that 10K.
Others will argue that because Jakob runs around 180 kilometers per week and does double threshold he shouldn't have any trouble over the 10K distance.
I suspect most people here will favor Jakob over Blanks and so be it.
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.
Olympic 5k final?

Exactly!

In the 5000m final in Paris Blanks was some few meters behind Jakob when Gebrhiwet made his move about 600m out.

And in these last 600m Jakob distanced Blanks with about 5 seconds. Why should Blanks do much better in a 10k? Jakob has outclassed the best European distance runners in the European cross country champs in 2021 and 2022.

Blanks is a promising young runner but he isn´t in the top of the world yet.

Ghost1 has a habit to hype runners who are not in the absolut world elite, including his compatriot Jimmy Gressier who is a good and gutsy runner but he isn´t in the very top either.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 4:08pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
Not sure that Jakob would have beaten Blanks, or even Samuel. Those 2 are more specialised for 10k. I may be wrong but my prediction would have been 1. Blanks, 2. Jakob, 3. Samuel.
Did you see what happened to Jakob in that half marathon a few days after the track season when he reached his limit at the 10K point reached in around 2750? The Africans he was running with were just cruising, so to speak.
Obviously coming straight from the track season was not the best preparation but I think Jakob possibly had his limit around that 10K.
Others will argue that because Jakob runs around 180 kilometers per week and does double threshold he shouldn't have any trouble over the 10K distance.
I suspect most people here will favor Jakob over Blanks and so be it.
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.

Jakob is a really good cross country runner - check out his record at European Cross. Blanks isn't much better, if at all, than guys like Jimmy Gressier and Yeman Crippa, who Jakob beats like a drum when they race cross country. Jakob did get beaten pretty well at World Cross in the junior race but that was back in 2019. He will be running European Cross this year so stay tuned. But to answer the question, he would beat Blanks handily (and I am a huge fan of Blanks - but I am not delusional).

This post was edited 54 seconds after it was posted.

1 year ago 11/25/2024 4:20pm EST

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.

It was extremely impressive. I don’t think Jakob would have made a move from 3k out or anything; I think he would have been running on Blanks’s shoulder with 1k/800 to go and it would have looked like Blanks was flying and Jakob was running slower, and then despite Blanks going to the well Jakob would have (apparently) eased away in the last 400 and won by a few seconds. Jakob 28:29, Blanks 28:33 or so.

Most posters would assume that Jakob was out for a walk in the park even in the closing stages, because Jakob never looks like he’s running ragged even when he’s losing global championship 1500s. It probably wouldn’t in fact be that easy for him—no “he could win it back to back within an hour” or nonsense like that—but there’s no reasonable doubt he would win.

1 year ago 11/26/2024 7:58am EST

re: John Wesley Harding

John Wesley Harding wrote:
Ghost1 wrote:
The way Graham finished that 10K cross country at the NCAA final was so impressive and he was absolutely full of running. Monster leg turnover. Personally I think Jakob would have cracked, but I may be wrong - it's all guesswork.
It was extremely impressive. I don’t think Jakob would have made a move from 3k out or anything; I think he would have been running on Blanks’s shoulder with 1k/800 to go and it would have looked like Blanks was flying and Jakob was running slower, and then despite Blanks going to the well Jakob would have (apparently) eased away in the last 400 and won by a few seconds. Jakob 28:29, Blanks 28:33 or so.
Most posters would assume that Jakob was out for a walk in the park even in the closing stages, because Jakob never looks like he’s running ragged even when he’s losing global championship 1500s. It probably wouldn’t in fact be that easy for him—no “he could win it back to back within an hour” or nonsense like that—but there’s no reasonable doubt he would win.

Correct take. Blanks and Samuel are fringe sub-27 guys, which Jakob can beat in XC (Gressier, Crippa, Scrub). I would love to see him vs Ndikumwenayo who is more in the 26:40 range at Euros. The interesting question is always where Jakob would finish at World XC. I don’t think he’s beating Kiplimo/Aregawi but after that it gets murky with hit/miss Kenyans and the best Ethiopians skipping.

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