1600m Prediction based on many detailed workouts?

your rest on all your specific sessions make it hard to give a concrete guess. your pr is already close-ish, 8 seconds isn't an insane jump over a year for the mile, so its not out of reach. If I had to say if you could do it right now, I'd say no. this is more based off how to you talk about your workouts + how you seem to hammer the last rep of all your short intervals than the splits themselves. thats classic workout hero stuff and is usually pretty indicative of a guy who isn't going to race at the levels his workouts would make you think. just trust your training, don't hammer, and go race. thats the only way you'll get a real answer. good luck.

The 27:02 itself indicates you could lop at least 6-8 seconds off your 1600 time, before you even get into your workouts.

The 1600 is also such a short race distance that you could just time trial one and see how it goes.

Ngl right around 4:30-4:31 at the moment. Also there is absolutely no reason on this green earth to blast a 59 last 400 after what was a perfectly reasonable 20x400. If you had that much left you should have run them all at 76-77 instead

Thanks all. Those are all accurate and reasonable guesses. (except 27:02 to an 8 second PR ;-; that is horribly optimistic and I already said I'm training for a 5k and am more distance-oriented)

Yes, I would consider myself more performant in workouts than races. Usually, I build up workouts to get difficult over a whole season and get myself one to three weeks of great performances to go with them while having run drastically slower the whole season - time trialing in the middle without any taper usually ends up with a result far slower than the workouts would seem. I'm not sure if this is a problem I can fix or whether I'm just the kind of person that just thrives during workouts and struggles more during racing if I know I'm not peaked for the race, so basically can't even tell if its a mental or physical problem.

Anyhow, to come clean, I time trialled a 4:34.5 yesterday by splitting 67.0, 68.9, 69.5, 69.1. I can't help feeling like I had more to give but my body wouldn't push harder like during the final reps of workouts, because during a race effort although I can physically do it the pain is slightly worse and importantly, the mentality is so much harder. I couldn't get myself to go without racing anyone or knowing my split times as I ran. I only really began my kick easily in the final 50m despite telling myself to pick it up through the final 800m and crossed the line feeling unfulfilled. (In my PR race which jumped a 4:37 PR to a 4:32, I crossed the line and hit the sack in the grass, I know how it feels and how satisfying it is to truly go all out 😂)

This was after one of the hardest planned weeks in my buildup a few days after my 27:02 that went with the 16x300 @ 50s, then 6 mile tempo @ 6:00, then the 3x2k @ 5:14, then 8.75mi recovery, then the 8x400 @ 66s, then two shorter recovery days, (strides the day before), so I wasn't expecting a big PR, if anything. But I've consistently felt that I've been in sub 4:30 shape, not by far but at least a little.

My next week will be far easier and continue on with longer 5k-specific workouts as we move on, but that's the gist of it. I came to the boards today to kind of seek better signs that I should be running better than I did. But maybe not.

It doesn't matter too much at the end of the day since I'm only doing mile pace workouts a few times every two weeks to supplement my 5k training and hoping PRing in the mile off of that is a slow process, but I really just want to find some confidence that my 5k training is going well but the longer the distance the harder it is to time trial, so I've been itching to race but just going with an event I know but I struggle more with.

Maybe the time trial should have been 3200m?

1. simply run smarter in workouts and don't hammer. have some self discipline.

2. that makes sense, if its a solo TT and you don't even have someone shouting splits, you're going to run slower than you would in a real race. you're in PR shape.

3. no, that would just be more laps where you'd be by yourself trying to hang on. as you said, the longer the distance the harder it is to TT. get in an actual race soon.

Alright. Everything makes sense, thanks.

Otherwise yeah, my mile-pace workouts in my plan all have really long recoveries I guess cause it doesn't matter too much for 5k, and I'm just about done with mile workouts except for a 8x400m @ 65s (400m jog) about a month out from now.

I'm building up towards peak workouts of 2x2400m @ 5:00 pace (800m jog), 2x1600 @ 4:45 (1600m jog ~full recovery), 3x1600 @ 5:00 (400m jog), then 5x800 @ 2:20 (400m jog) as the peak workout before 5 day taper and final race where I'll be paced for sub or low 15:00 5k by someone else.

Hopefully the build goes well over the next 6 weeks. I get one more free spot in my plan to 'time trial a distance 1-3 miles or 3200m in 9:45' so not sure if I should go for another 1600m or just take the 3200m workout, but I'm just worried about attempting to average low 4:50s for 5k while my mile time is only in the 4:30s, really doesn't give me much room for error 😅

Not sure what your mileage looks like/if these are all the workouts you’ve done…but if so, off the bat you need more volume at tempo and threshold, and should look to incorporate longer threshold intervals and even straight tempos. The 400 workout reads like a tempo workout (although you could’ve done with about 30 sec rest), and you did some nice 2K’s. I’d be hitting a true strength session once a week and maybe even beginning my “speed” session with some threshold reps before I move into the more speed oriented phase of the training cycle. Hills are a great way to continue building strength while getting oriented to speed.

You’ve said you prefer more endurance-oriented workouts. Lean into your strengths and worry about hitting your weaknesses every once in a while. That will ultimately give you the best results, and in this case, will help you close down a 1600 better. Common misconception is that the late stages of a 1600 is all about your speed…if you don’t have the strength, your speed will never come into play.

Yeah sorry I only copied over the track workouts I do. I routinely did 9mi @ 6:00 during base building and or longer runs ~10-11 miles at sub 6:15, with my biggest long run being a 15mi @ 6:24 before focusing less on long runs now as season enters. It's just easy 10-11mi now. Also during base and up to recently I was doing 5x1600m at 5:20, 8x800 @ 2:30 (1 min recovery), 16x400 @ 75s, stuff like that.

Alright, makes sense, that's good advice. I turn to the workouts at pace ranges I'm specifically weaker at because it feels like where I need to improve to race better and because my strengths already feel sufficient to run faster in the mile (which is maybe a misconception anyway) but I didn't think about how I could probably get there faster by just working my strengths. Looking forward to it. 🙆‍♂️ will give updates maybe

In the past few weeks I've been building workouts still.

I'll post what sets of workouts I've done since my original post and lackluster 4:34 1600m time trial with adequate (2-3 days of) 8mi recovery days in between sets:

• Set 1 (ok this one was kinda stupid for what happened after the first workout lmao but I'm some college kid still learning time management now)
  • 5x1600m w/ 400m jog aiming for 5:06s - 5:03.0 (watch not configured right and ran 1:14 lap 3), 5:07.1, 5:05.7, 5:06.5, 5:05.1. Felt good and first time doing this many mile repeats this fast but felt definitely acceptable pace. 8/10 effort could've repped a more
  • missed my planned in-between day working on a big project late through night then carrying through to study for midterm next day up to 5am
  • didn't sleep, AM. made up my yesterday run at 5:30am, 6.5mi @ 6:52 - drank coffee after, did well on the midterm, submitted project. PM. 3 mile (not 1600m) hard threshold goal 5:15 miles -> 5:19, 5:20, 5:19 = 15:58 (oof coffee crash and stuff, just felt bad, anyway. but paced evenly and got through). 9/10 effort day, had like 1 more race-to-the-well lap in me but shouldn't have been this bad though
• 2 recovery days, then fell off bike and injured/bruised calf kind of badly on the way to getting new trainers cause my current speed 3s had 1403mi on them lol - very bad luck
• 6.14mi easy tempo @ 5:56 (calf still not up to par)
• 8.34mi recovery
• Set 2 (calf feeling better)
  • 16x400m w/ 400m jog, aiming for 1:10s - 70.0, 67.6, 70.1, 71.0, 69.0, 69.8, 69.9, 69.1, 70.7, 67.7, 69.7, 68.9, 68.6, 69.2, 69.0, 67.6 = 69.24 average. 7/10 effort day, honestly amazing was floating through them after each recovery and could've went probably like 4 more. kinda stupid that this workout's average is just 3.5 seconds off my mile time trial.
  • 8.26mi recovery
  • 2x2400m w/ 800m jog, aiming for 7:30s - 7:30.4, 7:39.9. Was hurting here. The first one went by pretty smoothly went out in a 1:16 or so and then just cut it down and down and hit the split. Thought I'd be fine after 800m jog and felt okayish other than sluggish legs. Then the 2nd one went out harder, hung on first 3 laps on pace but the final 3 my legs weren't in it and the lactic wall hit. I felt the muscle fatigue from the previous workout and legs weren't moving smoothly or strong and slowed a lot. 9/10 effort day again, not much left to give maybe 1 lap. Long faster intervals after another workout already seems to be hard for me.
  • recovery (today)
  • planned: 2x1600m w/ 1600m jog, aiming for 4:45s

Just wondering what people think of how things are going - and also, if my plan assigns me these workouts in kind of sets, with less recovery days in the middle, should I be doing them like this or should I try to just handle each workout on their own first? I'm certain if I weren't just having 1 recovery day between these workouts, just 2 or 3, I'd more comfortably hit every single workout, but I think there's also a benefit to learning to run on tired legs and also to not overcook yourself (preventing yourself going too fast by keeping fatigue in legs). I'm not sure. It could just be that my endurance is not nearly up there yet, as well. If so I just need more long reps at 5:00 pace or under.

I think you should let yourself take two or even three days between the workouts. Those are some pretty high volume sessions for where your PRs are at and I'm guessing the CumFat (cumulative fatigue) is building a lot and preventing more quality work from taking place.

Yes, there is benefit to running on tired legs and building endurance etc. But if your goal is to run a fast mile, than endurance and tired legs are more "getting in shape to get in shape" type goals than what you should be thinking about in the month or two before a mile PR attempt. If you're worried about not working enough with 2-3 days between a workout, do something like this:

Mon: big mile-specific workout

Tue: easy double

Wed: easy double with 8x100m strides

Thu: easy double or big workout if you feel well-recovered

Fri: big workout

You can maintain and even progress your speed in between big efforts while still giving yourself rest. You're in college, so you have plenty of time to double. You're apparently not coached or on a team right now, so you don't need to gut it out through tough workouts to be there for your teammates when it might be better for yourself to rest--just take the extra rest day, hit the mile workout hard, and recover completely

What is the purpose of all of this? Track is a competitive sport. You said nothing about your competition and what you are going to do to beat them. That's everything! Nobody cares about what workouts you did. Nobody. You need to clear your head of junk and learn to focus on what it's all about. Serious.

Hi Malmo. Big fan. Unfortunately I'm in a situation where I don't really have competition except myself right now and it's honestly sad. I'm not on the college team and so I guess I'm trying to walk on and run certain time standards. I don't have people to really train with, and no planned races except a paced 3200/5k time trial with one of my friends at the middle December, so for now it's just me, trying to improve myself, and with no specific competition :( Which is a massive bummer, since a lot of my drive comes from competing with an analytical mind too. Knowing my competition, preparing to race them on race days, and working specifically towards race plans. I lost all that when I graduated and chose academics (UCI) over D3 recruitment (UCSC) but I was in a position where it wouldn't have made sense to choose running compared to how strong my academic stats were.

I'll be properly racing all around in track. And by next year if things still aren't going towards being on a team I'll join the local competitive track clubs. I know there are fast people there it is just out of my way compared to the school team.

also @rest days! the goal isn't really specifically to run a fast mile, it's more of a second thought stepping up to having enough speed to run fast in the 3200/5k. My posts have been diverging from the original topic of the thread (not really asking for mile prediction anymore) and I'm now working more towards the low 15:00 5k or the low 9:20 3200m. That does kind of change things a bit in that I'm not doing as much mile specific work anymore. So I guess I wonder if these workouts are good signs for my 5k/3200m goals anyhow.

Ok I get it. But presumably you're doing these complicated workout for the purpose of racing. At least try to imagine who you're racing in your head. Every day you should be rehearsing how these races pan out. ...... and you should be winning those imaginary battles. When you finally do get in the hear of battle it should be automatic for you.

My advice would be to make the most of your break and cram as much sleep and rest with smart mileage in however many days you have. Regarding your time trial, I think you need a pacer to help you adequately time trial a 5K and/or mile. Lots of sleep prior to it, a little caffeine, and someone calling your splits would help.

I would also recommend adding a long run to your training. It is important to run for prolonged periods of time once a week/every 2 weeks? It gets air in the lungs and is especially beneficial for endurance for longer distances like the 10K and the 5K which you are training for. If you want to add some speed work, I would recommend making the last 1-2 miles uptempo.

The general 1600m-3200m conversion that worked for the most part in my high school was: (1600m time + 20 seconds) x 2 = (3200m time). Based off of this, I think you can run around a 9:44 3200m or faster since you are a more distance oriented runner. My advice would be to adjust your workout paces to somewhere close to that.

Yup matt_c, I know. I have a pacer (set for 9:25/15:15 for now) I’m keeping the long runs. Caffeine has never really agreed with me so no on that one. (Minor ADHD so it’s super draining) I’m working on fixing the sleep schedule.

and yes, I know the blanket 1600m->3200m conversion factor, but it is really variable and especially finicky when your 1600m is outdated or you’re specifically training for distance. The 4:32 -> 9:44 would have been accurate for me 7 months ago and even then I could’ve probably stretched it out to 9:30s if it weren’t for peaking too early at a meet held in 90deg temps to run 9:50 (I know many a ppl who focused 3200m and ran 4:30/9:30 - Lucas went 4:09/8:48, Sean 4:14-8:59. All of those suggest 20s too pessimistic.)

malmo, I’ll work on rekindling the flames of competition for sure. During the workouts and time trials lately it’s just been a trust my body and get through it type thing, and muscle through it focused on every step of the task. I’ve forgotten the kind of zoned out simple-minded peace of pushing in competition and running not to temper and train myself but to actually do something and beat someone. And it’s probably honestly my big mental block now, so I need to work on it. Thanks.

4:27/9:30/15:37 from what I can tell.

What’s your 5k PR anyway?