Men's 1500m global championship parity: A historic streak, how long will it last?

The most likely candidates besides the big 3 are Nuguse, Kessler, or Komen. One of them would have to win next year. Not impossible but relatively unlikely IMO

Could see a Nuguse win in Tokyo tbh. Seems to be improving tactically, went from 5th to 3rd which is a good improvement.

If Coe doesn't ban Kenya, for sure gold, silver, and bronze will be a wrap for the Kenyans. Komen or Raymond Cheryuiot in 3:24.

Otherwise, the most likely to string a couple of wins together is Laros.

Until they install wave lights or a pacer, we know Ingebrigsten won’t repeat. Champions from the 2010’s are out since they’re past their prime.

Good question. I think the field has a better shot than the previous champions.

I think Nuguse is most likely to keep the streak alive. Boring answer, but Jakob or Kerr are the most likely to end the streak.

If you go discount Kiprop since he doped, the last time someone repeated was in 2004. Pretty crazy really.

This is the best answer. He can lay back off of a hot pace. Nuguse does awful though when the pace is not fast. If Jakob employs the strategy from 2024 Euros, the only person who might beat him is Hocker.

Why would Ingebrigtsen need wavelights or a pacer?

Because he lacks the closing speed to compete with the others. He’s been out kicked in his last 4 global championships all while constantly improving his PR.

What does that have to do with needing wavelights or pacers? Sounds like it's hard for everyone to win regardless..

WOW! Are Kenyans that talented?

And if you include dopers, Kiprop didn't win in 2008.

Jakob wins next year easily. He knows what to do now.

Is Raymond Cheryuiot related to Reynold Cheruiyot?

I agree with this, although I would add Hocker as a strong threat to end the streak. If Nuguse wins next year, then it's conceivable the streak can continue with Kessler and Laros in subsequent years. That would tie the record.

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

Every athlete has strengths and weaknesses. In championship races, every athlete knows which style of race gives each of their competitors an advantage or a disadvantage.

Jakob has a very small chance in a slower race because that plays in to everyone else’s strengths.

Jakob has a very large chance in a faster race because that plays into his strengths.

The only problem is, Jakob’s advantage in a faster race is completely offset by him having to make the race fast himself. Therefore, in order for him to have a true advantage, he needs pacers and wave lights.

Right - but someone like Komen could play that pacer role, like Cheruiyot in 2021.