I think it’s unusual for there to be so many mid-distance WRs with a realistic chance of falling in the immediate future.
Men’s 800 (1:40.91) - Brussels 9/14 - DL Final showdown between Wanyonyi and Arop (will Sedjati be in the race too?) 1:41.11 and 1:41.20 SBs respectively, six 1:41s between them and both want the WR. I fear they may be a little overripe at this point in the season.
Men’s 1000 (2:11.96) - Zagreb 9/8 - Arop is reportedly targeting Ngeny’s 25 year old record, and Laros might be in the race as well. Arop wasn’t capable as a 1:43 guy but how will his new 1:41 ability translate to 1K?
Men’s 1500 (3:26.00) - Zürich 9/5 and Brussels 9/13 - Lots of talk about this possibility with Jakob in incredible 7:17.55 3k shape. Does he have the wheels to average 54.93 laps for 1500m?—and will having the Paris medalists queued up behind him actually hamper WR aspirations.
Men’s 5000 (12:35.36) - Rome 8/30 - Extremely strong field led by Aregawi, Gebrhiwet and Kejelcha. 3 obscure Ethiopians are entered as pacers, which leads me to believe they are handpicked from the same training group/agent as one of the above athletes for a WR attempt. Gebrhiwet appeared capable when he blasted the last 400 of a 12:36 race in Oslo, and Aregawi is right on the cusp between his 7:21.28 3k and how he closed a 12:40 in 7:30 last year. Working against them, it will be fairly warm and humid.
Women’s 1500 (3:49.04) - Rome 8/30 and Brussels 9/14 - This is obviously all down to Kipyegon and contingent on her making an attempt. Winnie Nanyondo is the only pacer I see for Rome, which has worked before, but she hasn’t been in great form this year and I’m skeptical she can make it to 1K in 2:34. In a way this WR would be the most “boring,” but a woman running 3:48 would be pretty insane.
Women’s 5000 (14:00.21) - Zürich 9/5 and Brussels 9/14 - After running 28:54 for the 10k WR and winning the double in Paris, this is the natural next step for Chebet. She ran 14:05.92 last year and on her best days this season I have little doubt she’s been capable of breaking the 14:00 barrier. An unlikely plot twist would be Tsegay with a revenge bomb; interestingly, her season’s bests at 10k (29:05) and 1500 (3:50.3) both score higher in WA points than her 5k WR.
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My prediction: the last 3 I listed all go down, the others survive. Aregawi 12:35.32 (I know, skin of his teeth), Kipyegon 3:48.83, Chebet 13:57.60.