Which of these WRs will be broken in the next 3 weeks? (Lots of possibilities)

John Wesley Harding wrote:

I think it’s unusual for there to be so many mid-distance WRs with a realistic chance of falling in the immediate future.

Men’s 800 (1:40.91) - Brussels 9/14 - DL Final showdown between Wanyonyi and Arop (will Sedjati be in the race too?) 1:41.11 and 1:41.20 SBs respectively, six 1:41s between them and both want the WR. I fear they may be a little overripe at this point in the season.

Men’s 1000 (2:11.96) - Zagreb 9/8 - Arop is reportedly targeting Ngeny’s 25 year old record, and Laros might be in the race as well. Arop wasn’t capable as a 1:43 guy but how will his new 1:41 ability translate to 1K?

Men’s 1500 (3:26.00) - Zürich 9/5 and Brussels 9/13 - Lots of talk about this possibility with Jakob in incredible 7:17.55 3k shape. Does he have the wheels to average 54.93 laps for 1500m?—and will having the Paris medalists queued up behind him actually hamper WR aspirations.

Men’s 5000 (12:35.36) - Rome 8/30 - Extremely strong field led by Aregawi, Gebrhiwet and Kejelcha. 3 obscure Ethiopians are entered as pacers, which leads me to believe they are handpicked from the same training group/agent as one of the above athletes for a WR attempt. Gebrhiwet appeared capable when he blasted the last 400 of a 12:36 race in Oslo, and Aregawi is right on the cusp between his 7:21.28 3k and how he closed a 12:40 in 7:30 last year. Working against them, it will be fairly warm and humid.

Women’s 1500 (3:49.04) - Rome 8/30 and Brussels 9/14 - This is obviously all down to Kipyegon and contingent on her making an attempt. Winnie Nanyondo is the only pacer I see for Rome, which has worked before, but she hasn’t been in great form this year and I’m skeptical she can make it to 1K in 2:34. In a way this WR would be the most “boring,” but a woman running 3:48 would be pretty insane.

Women’s 5000 (14:00.21) - Zürich 9/5 and Brussels 9/14 - After running 28:54 for the 10k WR and winning the double in Paris, this is the natural next step for Chebet. She ran 14:05.92 last year and on her best days this season I have little doubt she’s been capable of breaking the 14:00 barrier. An unlikely plot twist would be Tsegay with a revenge bomb; interestingly, her season’s bests at 10k (29:05) and 1500 (3:50.3) both score higher in WA points than her 5k WR.

…

My prediction: the last 3 I listed all go down, the others survive. Aregawi 12:35.32 (I know, skin of his teeth), Kipyegon 3:48.83, Chebet 13:57.60.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

I think it’s unusual for there to be so many mid-distance WRs with a realistic chance of falling in the immediate future.

Men’s 800 (1:40.91) - Brussels 9/14 - DL Final showdown between Wanyonyi and Arop (will Sedjati be in the race too?) 1:41.11 and 1:41.20 SBs respectively, six 1:41s between them and both want the WR. I fear they may be a little overripe at this point in the season.

Men’s 1000 (2:11.96) - Zagreb 9/8 - Arop is reportedly targeting Ngeny’s 25 year old record, and Laros might be in the race as well. Arop wasn’t capable as a 1:43 guy but how will his new 1:41 ability translate to 1K?

Men’s 1500 (3:26.00) - Zürich 9/5 and Brussels 9/13 - Lots of talk about this possibility with Jakob in incredible 7:17.55 3k shape. Does he have the wheels to average 54.93 laps for 1500m?—and will having the Paris medalists queued up behind him actually hamper WR aspirations.

Men’s 5000 (12:35.36) - Rome 8/30 - Extremely strong field led by Aregawi, Gebrhiwet and Kejelcha. 3 obscure Ethiopians are entered as pacers, which leads me to believe they are handpicked from the same training group/agent as one of the above athletes for a WR attempt. Gebrhiwet appeared capable when he blasted the last 400 of a 12:36 race in Oslo, and Aregawi is right on the cusp between his 7:21.28 3k and how he closed a 12:40 in 7:30 last year. Working against them, it will be fairly warm and humid.

Women’s 1500 (3:49.04) - Rome 8/30 and Brussels 9/14 - This is obviously all down to Kipyegon and contingent on her making an attempt. Winnie Nanyondo is the only pacer I see for Rome, which has worked before, but she hasn’t been in great form this year and I’m skeptical she can make it to 1K in 2:34. In a way this WR would be the most “boring,” but a woman running 3:48 would be pretty insane.

Women’s 5000 (14:00.21) - Zürich 9/5 and Brussels 9/14 - After running 28:54 for the 10k WR and winning the double in Paris, this is the natural next step for Chebet. She ran 14:05.92 last year and on her best days this season I have little doubt she’s been capable of breaking the 14:00 barrier. An unlikely plot twist would be Tsegay with a revenge bomb; interestingly, her season’s bests at 10k (29:05) and 1500 (3:50.3) both score higher in WA points than her 5k WR.

…

My prediction: the last 3 I listed all go down, the others survive. Aregawi 12:35.32 (I know, skin of his teeth), Kipyegon 3:48.83, Chebet 13:57.60.

Let's break it down:

M800: I vote yes. I think Wanyonyi gets it. He'll get by Arop in the last 50m

M1000: I vote yes again. Arop is in prime position to do it.

M1500: I vote no. I think Jakob will save a little bit for the last 200 to ensure he beats Kerr and others in Zurich. At the DL final, I think he goes for it more, but ends up with a small PB

M5000: I lean yes. It seems like it's Aregawi's time. I think as long as someone else (Kejelcha, Gebrhiwet, Mehary) pushes after the pacers drop, he'll get it. If he has to do the whole last 2K then no, but he'll run 12:37-8 if so.

W1500: I vote no. I think Kipyegon might save that WR attempt for the Athlos meet actually.

W5000: I vote no, I don't think the pacemaking will be strong enough. I agree the fitness is there.

We have very different predictions ha, which is great because I certainly respect yours.

Urorir wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Let's break it down:

M800: I vote yes. I think Wanyonyi gets it. He'll get by Arop in the last 50m

M1000: I vote yes again. Arop is in prime position to do it.

M1500: I vote no. I think Jakob will save a little bit for the last 200 to ensure he beats Kerr and others in Zurich. At the DL final, I think he goes for it more, but ends up with a small PB

M5000: I lean yes. It seems like it's Aregawi's time. I think as long as someone else (Kejelcha, Gebrhiwet, Mehary) pushes after the pacers drop, he'll get it. If he has to do the whole last 2K then no, but he'll run 12:37-8 if so.

W1500: I vote no. I think Kipyegon might save that WR attempt for the Athlos meet actually.

W5000: I vote no, I don't think the pacemaking will be strong enough. I agree the fitness is there.

We have very different predictions ha, which is great because I certainly respect yours.

M800m: It has been a long season and the boys don’t have much left in the tank. Arop seems to have the best chance but he runs like a moron sometimes. The record stands.

M1000m: This record is the most vulnerable but Arop has to get it just right, and he won’t. There are probably 3 players on the scene now who could get this record, but it was set by a 3:43.4 miler. And a 1:41, 3:29 guy is 2nd all time. Does one need 3:30 ability to get it? I am not sure.

M1500m: Jakob’s best chance was Monaco. This record is the one which Jakob cannot get. The record stands.

M5000m: The Ethiopians somehow manage to screw up any attempts to maximize performance. Mehary is the most talented but he is not ready. Aregawi is special too, so close but no cigar. Maybe a couple under 12:40. The record stands.

W1500m: No that record is really good. Nobody getting it this year. The record stands.

W5000m: Again nobody touching that this year. The record stands.