The 3000m WR is way behind the 5000m WR currently in terms of quality. That's clearly to see if you compare the ratio of the two marks over the last 100 years. Also, 5000 is the main distance, not 3000.
Ingebrigtsen, with his current top 1500 shape and his enormous endurance, has a chance to put the record more equal (around 7:16).
72 hours is plenty of time to rest for Jakob. I’d expect him to be much sharper in this 3k than last year’s Pre when he only had 24 hours. He relaxed off the pace in the middle half of the race and really didn’t pick it up until 600 out. I’d be shocked if he waited until that long this time around. A lot of PBs, ARs, and maybe one or two under the previous WR.
He was a full 100 metres ahead of 2nd in his 7:54 two-mile WR. This field has a bit more talent but I'm still going for 75m ahead of Aregawi.
1. Jakob 7:18
2. Aregawi 7:28
I agree that Jakob has the potential to go sub 7:19 but he must be at his VERY BEST (what he wasn´t in the Lausanne 1500m).
I, however, think you are underestimating his competitors. I think Kejelcha is the closest and I wouldn´t be surprised if he goes close to Komen´s WR (remember he has run 12:38 in the 5000m this year - faster than Komen´s PB in that event.) I also think Aregawi - if he is in good shape - can run much faster than you estimate.
Tell me who you think are clean and I will tell where you are living
You think Jakob is clean. You are living in Denmark.
I never speculate about who is clean or who is not SINCE NO ATHLETE CAN PROVE HE IS CLEAN so I consider it unfair to accuse anyone of doping.
It is especially unfair when so many posters here show "selective suspicion" (it always the athletes "over there" and not their own darlings who are suspicious).
The 3000m WR is way behind the 5000m WR currently in terms of quality. That's clearly to see if you compare the ratio of the two marks over the last 100 years. Also, 5000 is the main distance, not 3000.
Ingebrigtsen, with his current top 1500 shape and his enormous endurance, has a chance to put the record more equal (around 7:16).
Over the decades, top athletes have been able to squeeze relatively more out of the longer distances. To illustrate this, look at the ratios between the mile WR and the 10k WR:
1950: 4:01.4 vs. 29:21.2 = 7.296
1960: 3:54.5 vs. 28:30.4 = 7.294
1970: 3:51.1 vs. 27:39.4 = 7.180
1980: 3:49.0 vs. 27:22.4 = 7.172
1990: 3:46.3 vs. 27:08.2 = 7.195
2000: 3:43.1 vs. 26:22.8 = 7.095
Present: 3:43.1 vs. 26:11.0 = 7.042
These numbers might not jump off the screen as significant, but in order to bring the mile WR back to the same ratio with the 10k WR as the following years, one would have to run:
2000 - 3:41.42
1990 - 3:38.35
1960 - 3:35.38
This does not mean we’re due for someone to smash 3:40, and supports my feeling that your logic is faulty.
If Jakob does run 7:16 (and I don’t think he will), it will be much stronger than the 5k WR, more like a 12:30 equivalent I figure, making Cheptegei’s 12:35.36 equal to 7:19.xx. 7:20.67 isn’t some chump time, lol.
The 3000m WR is way behind the 5000m WR currently in terms of quality. That's clearly to see if you compare the ratio of the two marks over the last 100 years. Also, 5000 is the main distance, not 3000.
Ingebrigtsen, with his current top 1500 shape and his enormous endurance, has a chance to put the record more equal (around 7:16).
Over the decades, top athletes have been able to squeeze relatively more out of the longer distances. To illustrate this, look at the ratios between the mile WR and the 10k WR:
1950: 4:01.4 vs. 29:21.2 = 7.296
1960: 3:54.5 vs. 28:30.4 = 7.294
1970: 3:51.1 vs. 27:39.4 = 7.180
1980: 3:49.0 vs. 27:22.4 = 7.172
1990: 3:46.3 vs. 27:08.2 = 7.195
2000: 3:43.1 vs. 26:22.8 = 7.095
Present: 3:43.1 vs. 26:11.0 = 7.042
These numbers might not jump off the screen as significant, but in order to bring the mile WR back to the same ratio with the 10k WR as the following years, one would have to run:
2000 - 3:41.42
1990 - 3:38.35
1960 - 3:35.38
This does not mean we’re due for someone to smash 3:40, and supports my feeling that your logic is faulty.
If Jakob does run 7:16 (and I don’t think he will), it will be much stronger than the 5k WR, more like a 12:30 equivalent I figure, making Cheptegei’s 12:35.36 equal to 7:19.xx. 7:20.67 isn’t some chump time, lol.
That's true, the longer the distance, the bigger the improvement over the years. But for sure this effect is much weaker when comparing 3000m/5000m with Mile/10000m.
For me, the equivalent to 12:35.36 is around 7:17 (definitely sub 7:19).
Also, the 3000m is not the Championship distance (yes: indoors it is), so it's just naturally that the record on most occasions should be weaker than the 5k mark. This probably was not the case when Komen set the current WR in 1996. But the 5k mark has improved by 9 seconds since!