Men’s 200m Final Predictions

Kenny B for gold

Knighton to medal

This is Kenny’s time to shine

Lyles is too heavy now, he can't come close to his own PB, let alone the WR

I believe Lyles will win, Knighton 2 Bednarek 3

Hoping Knighton gets DQ'd by WADA appeal.

Lyles 19.45

Bednarek 19.69

Knighton 19.75

Kung Fu Kenny B looked incredible.

Between him and Tebogo for gold based on today’s semis.

Did we ever find out why Lyles went to the medical tent instead of through the mixed zone?

something off with Lyles.

my $ is on Tebogo then Kenny

Hope it's an american sweep (lyles bednarek knighton), but would be cool to see either of those 3 at gold.

Tebogo is a factor though, especially with that confidence off the semifinal. Might see tebogo up there medaling, though. If lyles' confidence is off the chart, he manages to get in the heads of all his opponents, and has a great start, i don't see anyone getting in the way of his gold. He might even have a shot at the world record...or get the closest to it since awhile.

Nevertheless, will be a GREAT race!!! Then it's 400m hurdles after, and 110 hurdles, then 4x4 heats. A few hours of pure, spectacular racing.

Lyles didn't look like his usual hyper-confident self after that semi. No cocky smile and no jawing at the camera.

He looked worried.

Bednarek looking really strong. Lyles definitely was all business, looked like he’s saving it for the final. But it does seem like the rounds in the 100 and now the 200 are catching up with him. I don’t see a crazy time from him. Think it will be neck and neck with Bednarek.

This^

American sweep:

Lyles, Erriyon, Bednareck.

Tebogo and Knighton 1, 2. Bednarek and Lyles fight for 3rd. They didn't look very good in the semi.

So what’s going on with him? Why’d he lose to Tebogo? He broke his win streak. Is he vulnerable?

Lyles looked off. Given a bad lane draw screwed him last Olympics when he didn't win his heat, there's no way he wasn't trying to win today. Luckily, he's in lane 5, so not awful, but definitely not his preference

If there is something off with Lyles, then Bednarek, Tebogo, Knighton.

That being said, hopefully Lyles will be fine for the final.

I believe Lyles was chasing the wrong part of his race the last couple years. Yes, it's true that his acceleration has lacked relative to his top speed and speed maintenance, but developing this is not how records are broken. Rather, those are a largely driven by having the highest top speed in the game. Both Bolt and Gay hit 10m splits in the 0.80-0.81 range--and Bolt was able to follow those up with 0.82s. That's the speed required for 9.58 and 19.19. Lyles wasn't going to get to his target of 19.10 by improving his first 30m.

So, what does all of that means for tomorrow's 200m? I don't see Lyles breaking his 19.31 PB with this training approach. Going back 5 years to 2019, his 60m was 6.57 and 100m was 9.86. In 2024, his 60m got down to 6.43, while his 100m is at 9.79. I don't have race splits in front of me, but I don't believe the second half of his race has improved at all. In the Olympic final, his 60-100 split was 3.35. That's darn good, but note that Bolt went 3.27 (either in Berlin or London). Once again, that's the level of speed needed to be a sub-19.3 runner.

I wouldn't be surprised if Noah ends up with a 19.6 tomorrow. I think he's lost a bit of his natural bounce with the heavy focus on power. That will show up in the 200m. Additionally, his 19.31 was only his third race of the 2022 championships. Tomorrow will be his 6th race. Lastly, he was in lane 7 in 2022, while he is in 5 tomorrow. Nothing suggests to me that he will be in PB range. With that, I could see both Kenny and Tebogo beating him. I'm not convinced Knighton is going to do anything special. The one caveat is that Noah is a true competitor; he somehow always shows up. So perhaps he finds a way to win still; I just don't see it being much under 19.5 if even that.

And, yes, I am a Bolt Fan Boy. But I also think MJ's 19.32 is still the most impressive 200m of all time. That was his 8th race of those games, and the others were 4x 400m and 3x 200m. On top of that, he ran if out of lane 3!

Noah Lyles Gold

time: 19:21

OR

but no WR

for the WE he needs Bolt’s PEDs

Lyles sh!ts himself on the start line and loses in spectacular fashion. Later paints his nails black to commemorate the event.

Lyles needs wind to think about a WR.

I don’t really understand the heavy comment. Maybe he is less optimized. I think he wins regardless and might break 19.3 without +1.5 wind.