Women's Olympic 5000 Final: Can Anyone Beat Kipyegon? Can Cranny Break Up the Big-7?

Faith would be more than happy to draft 14 flat pace and outkick Chebet at the end.

Anyway there's no way she can front run that pace, she had pacers for the 10k remember?

Well, since the temps will be in the high-70s come race time, that alone would seem to preclude a solo WR attempt.

Just trying to think of a scenario -- outside of injury or illness -- where Kipyegon loses.

That's all I could come up with.

I don't think Kipyegon will win. Tsegay or Chebet, both are extremely strong.

Knight 2nd!!

Don’t know about Cranny, but Battocletti definitely might crack at least the top 7.

Which of the Big-7 does she beat?

Faith will win like how Cheptegei did in the 10000

I think Ethiopia vs Kenya team tactics will come into play. Faith wants to make the race a 400 meter dash because she has the 1500 heat the next morning and because she is the best closer in the field - maybe in the history of women's distance running.

Tsegay knows she can't outkick Faith as she is something like 0-15 against her. It makes sense for the Ethiopians to push the pace, but will it backfire, like in the men's 10000? And what about Chebet? Will she frontrun to keep the pace relatively slow, to help set up Faith? Also, knowing her best chance for Gold is the 10000? I think the Kenyans will want a controlled pace while the Ethiopians will want it to be fast.

Last year in Budapest Tsegay's tactics were horrible. With about 3 laps to go she went to the front but never really pushed the pace. And with around 600 to go she inexplicably gave up the poll position to the best finisher in the race. Once Kipyegon took the lead it was her race to lose. She was never going to relinguish that lead.

Kipyegon will outkick Chebet even if she pushes the pace.

No and no. Hassan will peak well for the Games but is clearly a step behind her previous form. Chebet and Tsegay may have sub-14:00 ability but so does Faith, and Faith is unbeatable in a kick. Her last mile will likely be under 4:20, with a sub-60 close. Nobody else can do that.

I expect there is a >50% chance Cranny beats one of those top 7, but also a >50% chance she loses to one of the other women in the "next group". An 8th-9th place finish would be solid for her.

Watch out for Finland's Nathalie Blomqvist! She will do big things. Top 8 finish possible.

Chebet -135 to medal is a lock.

US is def out gunned in the women’s 5000

Tsegay will have a better plan than at last year's WC 5000. But what? Maybe lay back and relax, then hammer from 5 or 6 laps out. Can't wait!

Kipyegon seems unbeatable, but she doesn't have the long history in the 5,000 that she has in the 1,500. However, Letesenbet Gidey tried the strategy of simply outrunning Kipyegon in Kipyegon's very first 5,000, and it didn't work. Also Kipyegon seems made for the Olympics because you can't beat her in a kick, and you can't beat her with pacing.

I think Chebet is best situated to try to beat Kipyegon. No one has succeeded in running Kipyegon's legs out, but everyone has a limit somewhere. I don't think it's impossible, because Kipyegon is human. Kipyeogon has beaten Tsegay a zillion times in big races, and she's also lost to Chebet and Elle St. Pierre at various distances this year, so I don't Tsegay beating Kipyegon. Chebet has a pretty good record against otherwise-dominant athletes who have also never beaten Kipyegon.

Will hot weather favor smaller athletes? Kipyegon is small, but Chebet is tiny.

Americans? Outmatched. Maybe a bronze if the race is weird and slow, but I don't think it'll be slow enough. Weird, maybe.

To win this race, you gotta have Faith.

Blomqvist is progressing upward; let’s see if today she tops Grovdal!

And let’s see if Whittni Morgan breaks 15min today! It is about to go off shortly!!!

The medalists were: Chebet, Kipyegon and Hassan. I don't yet know where the Americans finished.