Go 55 for the second and third lap. Nobody will keep up with him and he can close in 42.
Go 55 for the second and third lap. Nobody will keep up with him and he can close in 42.
He could also try going 3:25 for the final 1,500m
That would be feasible if he had a straight way to the front. He doesn’t, so he can just stay at the back and after 300 or 400 just go to the front and push 55 second lap pace.
snowflakes wrote:
Go 55 for the second and third lap. Nobody will keep up with him and he can close in 42.
Well yeah if he does that he will win because
a) he will clearly have to be in shape to even do that and can at worst run a 42 last 300 which will be enough to run 3.27.x
b) the field will go with him and nobody, including Kerr, can simply handle this pace (it's a lot to ask guys who have never even run under 2.47 en route before to all of a sudden run in the 2.45's/26's as well.
That being said, I'm not certain he's capable of doing that and certainly not without wavelight in the very least. I mean he doesn't even like running much faster than 56.0 opening laps in his big TT tilts in Europe so what, he's going to run 55.8, then basically 1.50.0 for the next 800m and even then it's only a fraction under 2.46? Not happening in his 3rd race in 5 days.
I think we will see him run something in the low 2.47's and be able to close in the mid 40.0's. I also think that will be enough to win the gold medal but that's just an opinion. Josh Kerr is a damn good athlete and I wouldn't be shocked if he busted that prediction.
I don’t think thats good enough to drop Kerr or atleast tire him before 200m. Jakob’s biggest strength is how hard he pushes in the middle. I was thinking along the line of, he will pull off what cheruiyot did in 2021 by getting to the front unless the first lap is like a 55, and then just keeping it rolling with 55’s. He has to put everything he has in the middle because I see no shot of him beating Kerr’s acceleration if he is sitting on Jakob with 200 to go.
If he draws the inside lane I can totally see it not working. All it’d need would be 1-2 guys getting out faster and boxing him in.
Based on what I saw in the heats Jakob needs a far gap with 200 to go to be rid of Kerr. Kerr looked really good. Jakob didn't look as good and ran an odd race but did qualify which is the point. No medals for winning heats. I think all the alphas will make the final.
jacksprat wrote:
Based on what I saw in the heats Jakob needs a far gap with 200 to go to be rid of Kerr. Kerr looked really good. Jakob didn't look as good and ran an odd race but did qualify which is the point. No medals for winning heats. I think all the alphas will make the final.
Jakob ran his heat the same exact way he had at global championships for a while. I think Kerr and Jakob ran their respective heats equally well and it is waaay too early to say who has the upper hand based of the first round.
jacksprat wrote:
Based on what I saw in the heats Jakob needs a far gap with 200 to go to be rid of Kerr. Kerr looked really good. Jakob didn't look as good and ran an odd race but did qualify which is the point. No medals for winning heats. I think all the alphas will make the final.
Really? Jakob closed in 39.5 and looked like he was jogging. While the others are straining at the end he’s floating along and looking around to make sure he’s top 6. Kerr closed faster (39.0) and was clearly pushing a bit harder but looked super smooth. They ran their heats looking like the two best guys in the world.
Jakob can run 3:25-high. Kerr can probably run 3:28 flat. Maybe 3:27-mid.
Jakob can win if he pulls a Rudisha which is obscenely difficult in the 1500. I'm hoping it happens though.
Everyone continues to overstate Kerr’s skills. He out kicked Jakob in one race (I dont count Pre bc it was Jakobs first race back) and now Jakob can only win by setting the WR? Such an a stupid take.
Jakob has run 3:26! Let’s also recall his Euro champs performance- he jogged the first 200m in ~30s, then proceeded to accelerate the entire rest of the race leading from about 600m, and closed his last 200m in 26.1 which is faster than what Kerr closed in the WCs last year. Considering he jogged the start, his time of 3:31 was insane.
This all tells me Jakob can certainly win in any style of race. I’ll grant that there is always a chance he loses- Kerr is good for sure- but Jakob can win with any strategy if he is feeling it that day. Kerr is the one who should be worried about how he can beat someone with no weakness.
Josh Kerr is such a chump. Leagues behind Jakob in raw talent, the only way Jakob doesn't win is if he trips.
snowflakes wrote:
Go 55 for the second and third lap. Nobody will keep up with him and he can close in 42.
Nah just go 2:35 for final 1200. Good luck Josh in keeping up.
anactualdoctor wrote:
Everyone continues to overstate Kerr’s skills. He out kicked Jakob in one race (I dont count Pre bc it was Jakobs first race back) and now Jakob can only win by setting the WR? Such an a stupid take.
Jakob has run 3:26! Let’s also recall his Euro champs performance- he jogged the first 200m in ~30s, then proceeded to accelerate the entire rest of the race leading from about 600m, and closed his last 200m in 26.1 which is faster than what Kerr closed in the WCs last year. Considering he jogged the start, his time of 3:31 was insane.
This all tells me Jakob can certainly win in any style of race. I’ll grant that there is always a chance he loses- Kerr is good for sure- but Jakob can win with any strategy if he is feeling it that day. Kerr is the one who should be worried about how he can beat someone with no weakness.
Jakob has been out kicked his last three global 1500m finals. That definitely counts as a weakness.
You have to count the Pre mile. If Jakob wasn’t fit enough to compete then he should have skipped the meet.
Lastly, Euros was not impressive. He closed in 53, and 1:50 last 800. That certainly would not have been enough to drop any of the guys competing now. Hobbs closed in 1:49 on day 1, not all out for example. Jakob and Kerr closed in 1:48.
I think you underestimate Kerr’s ability because he hasn’t done time trials. He’s just been focusing on championship races, not time trials. I suspect he is a 3:27 low to mid runner.
Just rewatched the Monaco 1500 and it seemed to me like Jakob stuck behind the lead pacer for 100 meters too long. Clearly, the pacer wanted to drop out with 500m but Jakob kinda pushed him to keep going until the bell (even following him out into lane 2). Then, Jakob put on a crazy gap on the field from like 350m to 250m to go.
I, too, think he's in 3:25 shape and knows it. Crazy as it sounds, I think he was holding something back in Monaco and probably overjoyed that he could run a 3:26 without fully emptying the tank
wrong. jakob is better. he did a 3:45 mile and pre classic AS HIS SEASON OPENER AFTER 6 MONTHS INJURED!!!!!!!
his kick in the euros 1500 was amazing. he gapped neil gourley so much, and gourley is meant to be a kicker!!!!
kerr is not in 3:27 shape, he is in 3:28 high shape ( bowerman mile)
jakob is in 3:26 WR shape ( monaco), and now would of worked on some 1500- specific sessions and speed+ kick work.
we will see in the final.
Let's be realistic. Frontrunning. At best: 56 - 55:5 - 55. But even that. So 2:47. And then 40 - 40:5. May be Kerr has the capasity to follow him. Even at 2:47 a lot of runners will be destroyed.
I looked back a few times at Jakob and Kerr's final 300. IMO Jakob was actually more impressive than Kerr. He was boxed in for the first 100, ran around the outside of the corner, looked in complete control never full gas, and closed it all in 39,5s.
No weak wrote:
Jakob has been out kicked his last three global 1500m finals. That definitely counts as a weakness.
You have to count the Pre mile. If Jakob wasn’t fit enough to compete then he should have skipped the meet.
Lastly, Euros was not impressive. He closed in 53, and 1:50 last 800. That certainly would not have been enough to drop any of the guys competing now. Hobbs closed in 1:49 on day 1, not all out for example. Jakob and Kerr closed in 1:48.
I think you underestimate Kerr’s ability because he hasn’t done time trials. He’s just been focusing on championship races, not time trials. I suspect he is a 3:27 low to mid runner.
Jakob has placed 2nd in his last three global 1500m finals. Going back to Tokyo, he’s 4/4 on 1500m podium finishes. One gold, three silver. Plus—two WC 5K golds. Focus on championship races!
A race with pacers and wave lights is still a race. There are real stakes like prize money. Time trials are what you have to do when you don’t race. You have to bust out an all out mile either solo or with a coach in a bike serving as pacer. Not a great way to prep for championship races!
anactualdoctor wrote:
Everyone continues to overstate Kerr’s skills. He out kicked Jakob in one race (I dont count Pre bc it was Jakobs first race back) and now Jakob can only win by setting the WR? Such an a stupid take.
Jakob has run 3:26! Let’s also recall his Euro champs performance- he jogged the first 200m in ~30s, then proceeded to accelerate the entire rest of the race leading from about 600m, and closed his last 200m in 26.1 which is faster than what Kerr closed in the WCs last year. Considering he jogged the start, his time of 3:31 was insane.
This all tells me Jakob can certainly win in any style of race. I’ll grant that there is always a chance he loses- Kerr is good for sure- but Jakob can win with any strategy if he is feeling it that day. Kerr is the one who should be worried about how he can beat someone with no weakness.
I am rooting for Jakob but Kerr has looked very strong since last year and is a threat.
Clearly the top two but the field cannot be dismissed.
Excited and nervous about today's semis