Norwegian Triathlete Kristian Blummenfelt Switching To Pro Cycling, Seriously Thinks He Can Win Tour de France By 2028

How difficult could that be?
I mean, they are not really swimming at the Tour, or do they?

Depends on if Norwegian blood bags are bigger than Slovenian blood bags

Tour is more difficult than tri. Yellow jersey? He has lost his mind.

He will obviously slim down since he won’t swim anymore. But still way too big for 2024 cycling. Could he make a pro team? Probably. Win Tdf (no way).

He’s only confident because he put out 1200 watts for 32:21 on a test effort with his coach.

With his tested VO2 max levels, he can absolutely win the Tour de France (assuming all athletes are equally clean or equally doped).

Considering the population of Norway, if that happens maybe the red flag will be fully raised after already having world champions in distance running, triathlon, and cross country skiing. Or are the Norwegians just the genetically superior human endurance specimens?

Even if it were physically possible for Blummenfelt to slim down from 75kg to the 66kg that Pogacar weighs, he doesn't put out anywhere enough raw power. Blummenfelt lists his FTP as 410 watts whereas Pogacar can do north of 462 watts for 40 minutes after already racing for 5 hours and multiple mountains. Blummenfelt's current threshold power is only 5.47 W/kg whereas Pogacar's is 7.0-7.3 W/kg tired out. With Blummenfelt's current W/kg, he would be finishing with the groupetto or the broom wagon.

"Blummenfelt’s FTP (Functional Threshold Power) is set to 410 watts in Strava (with his weight shown as 75 kg or 165 lbs)."

triathlete.com

An Expert Look Inside Blummenfelt's Gold-Medal Winning Bike File

Emma-Kate Lidbury

A peak power of 987w and 11-minutes worth of surges above threshold. You can find Olympic champ Kristian Blummenfelt's files on Strava—and we've got all the analysis.

Link:www.triathlete.com/events/an-expert-lo...

Transitioning from best in the world at triathlon to best in the world at one of the individual sports sometimes doesn't go according to plan (actually never). Did he consult with Gwen Jorgensen on this decision?

Or lance-was a triathlete moved to cycling *7 yellows? worked for Armstrong.

Well…. Lance Armstrong did go from triathlete to winning the tdf. The bike was actually his third (fourth) sport. He started by swimming, then did track, then moved to triathlon, which led him to the bike.

But of course, he was much younger when his did the switch.

We also saw Mike Woods going from a top (young) track athlete to becoming a tdf regular. Never won tdf however.

Blummenfelt is already 30 years old, far older than Lance, Pogacar, or Vingegaard when they first "won" a Tour de France. And Pogacar is still only 25 years old right now. By 2028, Blummenfelt will be 34 years old, an age when most pro cyclists are retiring.
Blummenfelt should instead target an old man's sport like golf.

…or the Ironman. You can be competitive into your late 30s

In a lot of ways this is a ton more likely. There are a lot more stories of people picking up biking and becoming elite than picking up running. But it is still almost impossible.

I would be curious what his climbing experience is. And well bike handling. I have to figure he can make solid estimates about time trialing after he drops his upper body mass.

And of course he would need to find some team to buy into this also.

Ritchie Porte another who famously made the move from tri to the pro peloton, and more recently, Cam Wurf.

With Lance and Ritchie, the transition was made relatively young (Ritchie was 21) - so there are years to gain experience and develop. Woods is a stage hunter who is explosive for a climber. Cam was a domestique just expected to sit on the front and tap out rhythm, which is perhaps something Blumm could be useful at. However this biggest problem with late transitions is the ability to ride/manoeuvre in the peloton. Woods is notoriously crash prone, as was Porte. It's not just a matter of "my VO2 is XX mL/kg/min and my FTP is 400+ W" - it's about being able to keep yourself in position to use your physiological assets. There have been races where Woods had the fastest time up the climbs, but missed the race winning move by being out of position. Riding in the pro peloton, particularly on challenging terrain, is practically a different sport compared to the bike leg of triathlon.

Indeed. Lance Armstrong was a very good triathlete who wanted to improve his cycling and then never came back.

Obviously his run and swim training hurts his power output on the bike. How often do you think Pogacar runs or swims?

He currently probably spends 25% of the time on the bike that top tour athletes do. He has so much room to improve.

Jayco-AIU is the WorldTour team named in the reports saying they are signing Blummenfelt. This will go up there as the worst signing in cycling right along with Chris Froome and IPT.

I’d say that overall as a people, Norwegians are built for endurance sports. Being athletic is also very cultural. Generally speaking, Norwegians are born with skis on their feet, and a love to be outdoors. Norwegians are also sports mad. Their athletes are revered. Recently in Oslo, Petter Northug (4 Olympic medals) was spotted outside the restaurant we were eating in; and you’d have thought Michael Jordan had appeared.