Jonathan Gault argues that Noah Lyles has the most at stake, with Sha'Carri Richardson and Grant Holloway close behind. And while Kenenisa Bekele already has three Olympic golds, how incredible would a fourth gold at age 42 be for him? Where would it rank among the all-time achievements by a 40+ athlete in any sport?
Georgia bell has the most to gain
Used to be Good wrote:
Georgia bell has the most to gain
I think all of the young people competing in their first Olympics have little to lose and a lot to gain. Parker Valby, Graham Blanks, Quincy Wilson. Any of the athletes straight out of the NCAA that are just beginning pro careers.
LetsRun.com wrote:
Jonathan Gault argues that Noah Lyles has the most at stake, with Sha'Carri Richardson and Grant Holloway close behind. And while Kenenisa Bekele already has three Olympic golds, how incredible would a fourth gold at age 42 be for him? Where would it rank among the all-time achievements by a 40+ athlete in any sport?
Perhaps a bit obvious, but defending his 1500m Olympic title is absolutely crucial to Jakob if he wants to build his legacy as the GOAT. Without that win, even with more WRs and 5k golds we would always have to feel that there's something missing.
The most to gain includes a bunch of unsonsored athletes who are suppossed to finish 30th.
he needs this win wrote:
Perhaps a bit obvious, but defending his 1500m Olympic title is absolutely crucial to Jakob if he wants to build his legacy as the GOAT. Without that win, even with more WRs and 5k golds we would always have to feel that there's something missing.
Definitely Jakob. I don't think there's a close second. Maybe Kipyegon. She's the acknowledged greatest right now but it's considerably easier for someone to vault her if she doesn't win a third in a row.
LetsRun.com wrote:
Jonathan Gault argues that Noah Lyles has the most at stake, with Sha'Carri Richardson and Grant Holloway close behind. And while Kenenisa Bekele already has three Olympic golds, how incredible would a fourth gold at age 42 be for him? Where would it rank among the all-time achievements by a 40+ athlete in any sport?
I actually think Noah Lyles has the most to loose, with SCR close behind. It's hard to justify this statement without showing close to 5 years of social media BS but they both have so much to loose.
SCR is basically the face of American track and field at this point with the amount of ads that have been put out about her this year, and going in as the defending world champion after an Olympic-sized letdown in 2021 she has the weight of the world, or at least America, on her shoulders.
Noah Lyles has been running his mouth nonstop for close to a year. EVERYONE wants to shut him, and there is a massive ginormous target on his back. It's not really exaggerating to say that he is the most disliked runner in the sprint world right now. If he wins Olympic gold he will still be hated but at least he will be Olympic champion. If he looses he may as well just retire from the sport because he will never hear the end of it, ever. The entire nation of Jamaica wants to see him loose - they don't really care if Kishane wins, they just want to see Lyles LOOSE.
LetsRun.com wrote:
Jonathan Gault argues that Noah Lyles has the most at stake, with Sha'Carri Richardson and Grant Holloway close behind. And while Kenenisa Bekele already has three Olympic golds, how incredible would a fourth gold at age 42 be for him? Where would it rank among the all-time achievements by a 40+ athlete in any sport?
I can’t believe Ingebrigtsen was only 7th. Lyles has multiple world championships and needs an Olympic win for sure, but so does Jakob. I would have Jakob, Holloway, SCR and Lyles as my 1,2,3, and 4. In that order.
If Parker manages to medal, Valbymania will go galactic.
Expect Great Things!!!
Most to lose: Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone: She's made a career out of perfection, competing very rarely, and dominating a niche event. She's introverted but has scored huge endorsement deals, appears in ads for regular consumer products, appears on talk shows, etc. She needs to win in order to continue to be THE SML.
Noah will be OK because there's always another race. Maybe it won't be as important, but it'll be soon. Sydney would need a whole new project if she lost.
Grant Holloway is also in a tough spot if he loses, and he's not as versatile as Noah in terms of dusting himself off and moving on in multiple events.
Honorable Mention: Grant Fisher.
Least to lose: Quincy Hall and Quincy Wilson. Quincy Hall could become a gold medalist without anyone knowing anything about him. Quincy Wilson is already overachieving and he knows that he's really preparing for something that's in his future.
I think Hagos Gebrhiwet has a lot to gain. As a 12:36 runner, if he could win Olympic Gold, then his resume would include:
Olympic Gold and Bronze
World Championship Silver and Bronze
12:36, second fastest in history.
Under 12:50 5 times.
So he would really cement himself as one of the top 5000m runners in history.
I’m surprised Joshua Cheptegei didn’t make the list. I think this is a pivotal Olympics for him in terms of his historical standing amongst the all-time greats. If he’s able to win the Olympic 10,000 title that’s missing from his résumé and then go on to successfully defend his Olympic 5,000 title, then he would have a compelling argument for entering the inner circle of all-time greats.
Of course, he’s a long shot to win the 5,000 again, so I could understand not listing him for that reason. But even if he pulled off the inverse of what he did in Tokyo by winning gold at 10,000 and silver at 5,000, that would elevate him historically.
Most go gain:
-Cole Hocker could gain a lot by medaling, but if he doesn’t that’s not a huge disappointment
-Josh Kerr doesn’t lose a lot if he doesn’t win the Olympics, but if he wins then as a world/olympic champion and 3:45 miler, he becomes an all time great 1500m guy
-Bekele/Kipchoge’s legacies are already cemented but another medal or good could solidify one as the distance running goat
-Marcell Jacobs certainly isn’t the favorite to win but if he pulls off another upset he’d become a sprinting legend
-Selemon Barega’s in the same boat, if he repeats in the 10k he has an argument for being an all time great level distance runner
-Graham Blanks/Nico Young-They’re only like 21 and not expected to medal but doing so at this age would be a legendary performance. Probably won’t happen, but they’re both talented enough to surpass expectations
On Jakob, he doesn’t have his whole legacy at stake since he already has an Olympic gold and world records, he could retire today and still be a distance goat. Similarly Cheptegei hasn’t as much to gain/lose either
Most to lose:
-Lyles, if he doesn’t get a single individual gold here that tarnishes his whole career. Same with Holloway and Benjamin
-Nuguse, he’s a 3:43 miler in his prime, if he doesn’t medal that’s definitely a stain on his career, almost Webb-like
-I’d say the same for Fisher, if he doesn’t medal here he can never fully surpass Rupp as the US distance goat, even if he runs sub 12:40 etc.
Used to be Good wrote:
Georgia bell has the most to gain
Phoebe Gill
I agree on Graham Blanks. He’s got nothing to lose and everything to gain. Playing with house money and would have to think he will peaking at the right time. I would think he has a good shot at getting to the finals.
Most to lose: Shelbo (snubbed, free shelbo)
Least to lose: Keely (beautiful woman whomst I respect the hell out of, and would continue to respect the hell out of, given the opp'ty. She's my celebrity free pass.)
Frenzyy wrote:
Most go gain:
-Cole Hocker could gain a lot by medaling, but if he doesn’t that’s not a huge disappointment
-Josh Kerr doesn’t lose a lot if he doesn’t win the Olympics, but if he wins then as a world/olympic champion and 3:45 miler, he becomes an all time great 1500m guy
-Bekele/Kipchoge’s legacies are already cemented but another medal or good could solidify one as the distance running goat
-Marcell Jacobs certainly isn’t the favorite to win but if he pulls off another upset he’d become a sprinting legend
-Selemon Barega’s in the same boat, if he repeats in the 10k he has an argument for being an all time great level distance runner
-Graham Blanks/Nico Young-They’re only like 21 and not expected to medal but doing so at this age would be a legendary performance. Probably won’t happen, but they’re both talented enough to surpass expectations
On Jakob, he doesn’t have his whole legacy at stake since he already has an Olympic gold and world records, he could retire today and still be a distance goat. Similarly Cheptegei hasn’t as much to gain/lose either
Most to lose:
-Lyles, if he doesn’t get a single individual gold here that tarnishes his whole career. Same with Holloway and Benjamin
-Nuguse, he’s a 3:43 miler in his prime, if he doesn’t medal that’s definitely a stain on his career, almost Webb-like
-I’d say the same for Fisher, if he doesn’t medal here he can never fully surpass Rupp as the US distance goat, even if he runs sub 12:40 etc.
I can't believe I forgot about Jacobs. If Oceans 11 pulls off another heist he's gonna be an all-time great who can duck as many meets as he wants. How many men have even repeated as Olympic 100m champion??
McRunnin wrote:
I’m surprised Joshua Cheptegei didn’t make the list. I think this is a pivotal Olympics for him in terms of his historical standing amongst the all-time greats. If he’s able to win the Olympic 10,000 title that’s missing from his résumé and then go on to successfully defend his Olympic 5,000 title, then he would have a compelling argument for entering the inner circle of all-time greats.
Of course, he’s a long shot to win the 5,000 again, so I could understand not listing him for that reason. But even if he pulled off the inverse of what he did in Tokyo by winning gold at 10,000 and silver at 5,000, that would elevate him historically.
Ditto for Kiplimo. Double Gold in Paris and his career narrative becomes Chasing Bekele/Geb/Mo.
Cheptegei just gained a lot.
The two athletes, one not a runner, with the most to lose are Syd & Mondo. I feel like these two are really the only overwhelming favorites for gold and, thus, have the most to lose.
