Okay but seriously, what is Jakob's path to victory in the 1500?

If Josh Kerr can smell Jakob with 300 left it's over.

He needs every lap to be fast to even have a shot

Kerr seems like he can 'recover' really well off 57s / 400 pace

Jakob needs to wind it up from about 1000 out. Good chance everyone wastes energy fighting to draft off his shoulder. Eventually the wrong person ends up on Jakob's shoulder and doesn't move out, Kerr is unable to pass that guy on the inside.

being in the front is a good idea because there will be at least a half dozen guys sticking their nose in it and staying attached through the first 1200 meters. Things can get ugly from there if you don't have good position. ANd things can get ugly throughout all of those 1200 meters if there are 3 or 4 guys who insist on having prime position.

This is not monaco where everybody is going to be happy running single file for the purpose of sucking their own PR out of Jakob.

Timmy C rounding back to form and kerr getting very close to Jakob's level, instead of just being the next guy, makes this so interesting.

Lane 1

I believe he’s going to surprise some people with how “simple” it is. He’ll run 3:27.5-3:28.5 with a significant negative split and pull away from everyone in the last 150.

Breaking his own OR along the way!

Thank God another Jaycobb thread………

He should jog for 2 laps and then blast it over the last 700 a la El Guerrouj. Similar to his Rome race this year, just go harder sooner.

He’ll probably push from the front again though. It’s almost worked twice (he only lost by a quarter of a second both times) so maybe he’ll finally pull it off this time.

I think he would be fine in a super slow tactical race, but there are a ton of guys who can medal in that sort of scenario, and most of them will get dropped in options A and B.

He wins in option B which is probably the plan.

Option A and C are more risky but he still wins like 50% of the time.

Other possiblity is someone else leads with a fast pace and he can draft until somewhere in the final 400.

Worst case scenario he gets pipped and gets second. Most likely scenario is above. This thread will end up looking like the “how does Fisher beat Hocker in the 5000” thread after the race.

I think he can front run 3:27. I doubt anyone can keep up.

This and colo runner comment below are what seems to be where this is headed.

Josh is phenomenal and my actually continue to get better as the years go but if Jakob is just even in Monaco form, the above is what will happen and it might look easy like a typical diamond league.

I'm not sure Kerr outkicks him from 600 out. Kerr looked very very shaky while struggling to run 1:45 at UK champs but you never know with him.

Also wouldn't be totally shocked if Jakob front runs a 3:27 low. He likely didn't peak for Monaco, he's peaking for Paris.

If Jakob lets it go slow for 400 and then starts to drive it in, I think he's got it. That would be my plan of choice, but I think he can win in any of the above ways.

Kerr already ran a 3:45.34 mile which is equivalent to a 3:28.75 and it's highly likely he will be at least 1 second quicker come the Olympic final.

People suggesting a front-ran 3:27.XX is a guaranteed Jakob win are being optimistic.

I think everyone counting out the fact the Jakob could benefit from not leading because it throw the race into complete chaos. If he is the only one prepared for that scenario, he could benefit from the chaos of everyone's race plan being to be on his shoulder.

But you’re forgetting this time was run with PACERS! and WAVE LIGHTS!

In a championship race this time would convert to 3:51 using the Matthew’s formula.

Jakob has no path to victory. He will lose!

I think Jakob very well might win. -My guesses are that Jakob will be in 3.26 flat shape in the final (not solo but paced shape) and Josh in 3.27 flat paced shape (only guesses based on current context). They will then be so alike in shape that I think coincidence and luck and what the other runners do will play a huge part. But I give the upper hand to the athlete with the best all out capacity…

I think Jakob can win with the same strategy he used in his two last global WC losses -front running from 500m to at least 1300m. He will then be vulnerable in a situation with Josh glued to his back all the way (like El Guerrouj was vs Lagat and Ngeny), but this doesn’t seem to be most likely scenario. -Josh needs a lot of luck to reach that position. He wasn’t able to that in WC 2023 (despite having that as the preferred option even then), but had to fight in the field. Wightman neither was drafted by Jakob in WC 2022, so this theoretically vulnerability for Jakob isn’t as probably as most posters seem to think. But Josh might get lucky -with better luck than Jakob he wins… I’ll give Jakob 60/40 over Josh.