On DraftKings Kipyegon is -285 to win the 1500m, that implies about a 75% chance to win. I'd put her chances at closer to 90% and am taking her at those odds. What are your thoughts? Tsegay is +500, Hassan +800, Hull and Welteji +1000
On DraftKings Kipyegon is -285 to win the 1500m, that implies about a 75% chance to win. I'd put her chances at closer to 90% and am taking her at those odds. What are your thoughts? Tsegay is +500, Hassan +800, Hull and Welteji +1000
The risk of her getting sick/injured or that she falls/get dq’ed/the race doesn’t go as planned is higher than 10% in my opinion.
Nordic r wrote:
The risk of her getting sick/injured or that she falls/get dq’ed/the race doesn’t go as planned is higher than 10% in my opinion.
I don't think the odds of sick/injured, falls/dq is that high but I agree that those factors are often not factored in. The race not going as planned is hard to quantify. I still think her odds are quite a bit higher than 75%. I believe she last lost a 1500 in 2021 and has won 17 of 18 since 2020.
Jess Hull just pushed Kipyegon to a WR and was with her until nearly the end. Imagine if the likes like Walteji or Haylom or Tsegay was in that race. They would’ve had a sizable chance of out kicking her. She’s still the clear favorite but I think that her chances are not over 90%.
I agree with the OP. 75% seems a bit low. Hassan has zero chance of winning. I doubt Tsegay will run it.
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Betting that she won’t get caught doping. Like her countrymen….anytime soon. Because she’s more than sus
Nordic r wrote:
The risk of her getting sick/injured or that she falls/get dq’ed/the race doesn’t go as planned is higher than 10% in my opinion.
That's why futures odds can often look favorable. The public doesn't like to factor in the oddities.
I'm not a fan of citing outliers but with future books they absolutely need to be respected. When playing into a bad line, like the guy who got Kerr at +900 and +500, you have to pounce immediately. But when playing into a number like Kipyegon -285 it's foolish not to wait until nearly the last minute. Eliminate as many of the unusual variables as possible. That price isn't going anywhere.
$Opportunity? wrote:
On DraftKings Kipyegon is -285 to win the 1500m, that implies about a 75% chance to win. I'd put her chances at closer to 90% and am taking her at those odds. What are your thoughts? Tsegay is +500, Hassan +800, Hull and Welteji +1000
I'll lay the chalk w you
Jess ' doped up on PEDs' Hull did not push Kipeygon to anything, the track record lights and her, Kipyegon, own proven talent did. Quit trying to hype your very highly doped up ausie fraud.
Jakob spread around the same price, would love to take the comeback on no +220 or whatever it would be... Think good value on Kerr at +250
Nordic r wrote:
The risk of her getting sick/injured or that she falls/get dq’ed/the race doesn’t go as planned is higher than 10% in my opinion.
We only need them to be greater than 74%
$Opportunity? wrote:
On DraftKings Kipyegon is -285 to win the 1500m, that implies about a 75% chance to win. I'd put her chances at closer to 90% and am taking her at those odds. What are your thoughts? Tsegay is +500, Hassan +800, Hull and Welteji +1000
Is Tsegay doubling 1500 / 5k? Surely she’s not trebling? Faith is doubling 1500 / 5k. Hassan has lost the plot attempting to be in 1500 and Marathon shape, but I’ll still applaud her for quadrupling and simultaneously ending her career.
2nd: 5000 heats
5th: 5000 final
6th: 1500 heats
8th: 1500 semis
9th: 10k
10th: 1500 final
11th: Marathon
The only danger for Faith is going to the well against Tsegay / Chebet in the 5k final and then facing a fresh Hull / Welteji in the 1500. Hassan isn’t a threat in either event. Overall, I agree with you.
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