fukuoka CX champ pridiction

i'm sorry, but all this talk about choge winning the 4k just doesn't do it for me. beating mottram and limo does not make him anywhere near ready to take down the emperor, especially in cross-country where bekele has yet to show that he can be beaten (as opposed to the track). bekele has absolutely dismantled shaheen twice now in XC in addition to world indoors, and shaheen is the only runner out there right now who is even close to the level of dominance that KB displays. KB will double up as easily as ever.

It will be difficult for Kenyan to beat Kenenisa b/c the weather defintly will be wet and mudy and Kenenisa ejoy it very much. apart from that ethiopian clean sweep in the women catagories.

let us not forget the trio guy silish, abebe and gberegziaber

let me say it again:

i have seen the 3k world indor bekele vs. shaheen. kenenisa crushed shaheen. choge is not as good as shaheen. so it would not be realistic to predict choges win over kenenisa. no one will get a slight chance to beat kenenisa. be it at 4k or at the 12k distance.

4k

kenenisa

shaheen

chebii

12k

kenenisa

sihine

tadesse

ladies short course

tirunesh d.

burka

mariam yusuf jamal

long course

tirunesh

xy

xy

Short

1st Bekele

2nd Choge

3rd Shaheen

4th Songok

5th Mottram

..9th Goucher, 10th Hall, 15th Lincoln, 21st Torres

Long

1st Bekele

2nd Sihine

3rd Shaheen

4th Dinkessa

5th Kigen

...17th Hall

Tadesse has a good exprience for the long course and i do not think shine will beat him. may be abebe challenge tadesse

Does anyone know where I can get a look at the starting line up?

ddoooobieee wrote:

Short

1st Bekele

2nd Choge

3rd Shaheen

4th Songok

5th Mottram

..9th Goucher, 10th Hall, 15th Lincoln, 21st Torres

I think this prediction is pretty good; think that Choge will be better than Shaheen but Bekele still too strong. Can't see the four US runners that high however....not expecting more than 1, at the most 2 in the top 20. The Ethiopian team looks very strong, I'm sure Qatar will have some people in shape. There are way more than 20 top level East Africans in the race; Goucher, Hall etc will struggle....

Starting Line up is not on the iaaf.org site yet. Should be up in a couple of days. Has anyone ever subscribed to watch the track on WCSN.com? I'm thinking of doing it for the world cross this weekend, $25 I think.

Z --> T wrote:i have seen the 3k world indor bekele vs. shaheen. kenenisa crushed shaheen. choge is not as good as shaheen.

Don't be so sure. Choge holds multiple world records for age classes, assuming he's a legit age that has to count for something. He's the real deal and keeps getting faster and could make a leap into the mid 1240's this year. Probably not into bekeles class, but he might skip over Shaheen....again he might not but don't dismiss him so quickly, he has speed and endurance and keeps improving. He was better then Limo and Mottram last year as well in a fast race.

i will keep on rating shaheen higher than choge until i see a 12:47 performance from choge.

the only way choge will beat shaheen is if, like last year, shaheen goes after bekele with 1500 to go and wastes himself like he did last year. choge is a smart racer and i dont think will even make an attempt to take down kenenisa, at least not by shaheen's methods of breaking him early. i also don't think shaheen will make the same mistake of last year and may try to take KB in a sprint this time. i think the world is now convinced that you can't beat KB by grinding him down... that has just never happened. you can only get him if his sprint isn't quite 100% on that day. maybe shaheen will get lucky, buuuut...

4k

1. the maestro

2. shaheen

3. choge

4. chebii

12k

1. maestro

2. sihine

3. tadesse

I predict Kenya will have its worst 12K showing in a long time. Have you seen their line-up? It's pretty weak, especially compared to some of the amazing teams of the mid-90's.

They'll be 3rd.

In order for Shaheen to take down Bekele, Shaheen MUST i repeat MUST run a flawless race. As he stated at World Indoor he made the mistake by not being close enought to Bekele when he started his kick. At Edinburgh he started his kick still too soon but closer to the right moment. He stated he knows exactly when Bekele starts his kick so all he has to do is run the perfect race up until that point. Which of course is gonna be the real challenge for him. I honestly think Shaheen will defeat Bekele if this happens, but im still putting my money on Bekele to win. Though Shaheen will have 2 chances to try and run the perfect race.

I think shaeen is not a kind of person fit for cross country. with tin leg, his ability to run on mud is less likely. if the field is dry he will have a chance to close the gap

Mesifn wrote:

with tin leg, his ability to run on mud is less likely.

Yes, tin legs are a big disadvantage. I pick Bekele, who has tungsten carbide legs, followed by Choge, whose legs are beryllium. Goucher will do well because his legs are made of Stilton cheese, which is British and therefore accustomed to muddy conditions.

flagstaff wrote:

ddoooobieee wrote:

Short

1st Bekele

2nd Choge

3rd Shaheen

4th Songok

5th Mottram

..9th Goucher, 10th Hall, 15th Lincoln, 21st Torres

I think this prediction is pretty good; think that Choge will be better than Shaheen but Bekele still too strong. Can't see the four US runners that high however....not expecting more than 1, at the most 2 in the top 20. The Ethiopian team looks very strong, I'm sure Qatar will have some people in shape. There are way more than 20 top level East Africans in the race; Goucher, Hall etc will struggle....

Just because they're African doesn't mean they'll automatically beat Goucher and Hall, both of whom beat Torres, who has twice finished in the top 15.

1.augustine choge

2.Kenenisa bekele

3.benjamie limo

i think this time it is the turn of Kenyan

Here are your predictions