Official US Olympic Trials Men's 10k thread: Jon Gault says Woody Kincaid is your winner, do you agree?

LetsRun.com wrote:

It seems as if JG views Kincaid as the Ingebrigtsen of the 10k - hard to beat if it's not rabbited.

Link:www.letsrun.com/news/2024/06/olympic-t...

So who wins and who makes the team? Young may eventually win a US 10,000 title, but as good as he has been this year (he did beat Kincaid head-to-head at The TEN but that had a rabbit), it feels too early in his career for him to win a US title in 2024. And while you can't ever count Chelimo out, he has always been a better 5,000 runner than 10,000 runner and his results this year just have not been impressive.

That leaves Fisher and Kincaid. Fisher beat Kincaid by five seconds at The TEN in March, 26:52 to 26:57. The logical inference is to view that as a good sign for Fisher, but I view it differently. The fact that Kincaid was able to run 26:57 -- a pb by nine seconds -- means he is incredibly strong and will be even harder to drop than he was last year, when Fisher took off with 1200 left, went 60.55-59.91-58.39 for his last three laps and still got blasted by Kincaid's 54.76 final 400. Fisher is the better Olympic medal bet, but in a slower race at the Trials, I still trust Kincaid's kick more -- even though he has not raced in three months.

1. Kincaid 2. Fisher 3. Young

LetsRun.com wrote:

It seems as if JG views Kincaid as the Ingebrigtsen of the 10k - hard to beat if it's not rabbited.

Link:www.letsrun.com/news/2024/06/olympic-t...

So who wins and who makes the team? Young may eventually win a US 10,000 title, but as good as he has been this year (he did beat Kincaid head-to-head at The TEN but that had a rabbit), it feels too early in his career for him to win a US title in 2024. And while you can't ever count Chelimo out, he has always been a better 5,000 runner than 10,000 runner and his results this year just have not been impressive.

That leaves Fisher and Kincaid. Fisher beat Kincaid by five seconds at The TEN in March, 26:52 to 26:57. The logical inference is to view that as a good sign for Fisher, but I view it differently. The fact that Kincaid was able to run 26:57 -- a pb by nine seconds -- means he is incredibly strong and will be even harder to drop than he was last year, when Fisher took off with 1200 left, went 60.55-59.91-58.39 for his last three laps and still got blasted by Kincaid's 54.76 final 400. Fisher is the better Olympic medal bet, but in a slower race at the Trials, I still trust Kincaid's kick more -- even though he has not raced in three months.

1. Kincaid 2. Fisher 3. Young

Jonathan Gault wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

1. Fisher

2. Young

3. Kincaid

Is he really basing his prediction on last year’s result? I mean, it’s one point of reference, but Kincaid had been on the roll of his life during 2023 (compared to say, 13:15 at BU this year and not racing in 3 months), and Fisher was racing on a bum leg (compared with a very convincing build up this year, looking almost unbeatable among domestic competition).

I’m not a believer in Chelimo becoming a great 10k runner at his age, and Mantz can’t compete with the top 3 in the last 800 (it’s essentially a glorified workout for him, I imagine). Nobody else is remotely in contention IMO.

Well I’m basing it on Kincaid running 26:57 this year and beating Fisher in the two US 10k finals he has finished.

Would not be surprised at all if Fisher wins, but if Woody is still there at the bell I know who my money is on.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

1. Fisher

2. Young

3. Kincaid

Is he really basing his prediction on last year’s result? I mean, it’s one point of reference, but Kincaid had been on the roll of his life during 2023 (compared to say, 13:15 at BU this year and not racing in 3 months), and Fisher was racing on a bum leg (compared with a very convincing build up this year, looking almost unbeatable among domestic competition).

I’m not a believer in Chelimo becoming a great 10k runner at his age, and Mantz can’t compete with the top 3 in the last 800 (it’s essentially a glorified workout for him, I imagine). Nobody else is remotely in contention IMO.

Well I’m basing it on Kincaid running 26:57 this year and beating Fisher in the two US 10k finals he has finished.

Would not be surprised at all if Fisher wins, but if Woody is still there at the bell I know who my money is on.

LetsRun.com wrote:

It seems as if JG views Kincaid as the Ingebrigtsen of the 10k - hard to beat if it's not rabbited.

Link:www.letsrun.com/news/2024/06/olympic-t...

So who wins and who makes the team? Young may eventually win a US 10,000 title, but as good as he has been this year (he did beat Kincaid head-to-head at The TEN but that had a rabbit), it feels too early in his career for him to win a US title in 2024. And while you can't ever count Chelimo out, he has always been a better 5,000 runner than 10,000 runner and his results this year just have not been impressive.

That leaves Fisher and Kincaid. Fisher beat Kincaid by five seconds at The TEN in March, 26:52 to 26:57. The logical inference is to view that as a good sign for Fisher, but I view it differently. The fact that Kincaid was able to run 26:57 -- a pb by nine seconds -- means he is incredibly strong and will be even harder to drop than he was last year, when Fisher took off with 1200 left, went 60.55-59.91-58.39 for his last three laps and still got blasted by Kincaid's 54.76 final 400. Fisher is the better Olympic medal bet, but in a slower race at the Trials, I still trust Kincaid's kick more -- even though he has not raced in three months.

1. Kincaid 2. Fisher 3. Young

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Well I’m basing it on Kincaid running 26:57 this year and beating Fisher in the two US 10k finals he has finished.

Would not be surprised at all if Fisher wins, but if Woody is still there at the bell I know who my money is on.

It’s a reasonable prediction, but I just don’t think you should put any stock in last year’s US final when Fisher was running on a stress reaction and was also beaten by McGorty. You might as well consider Kincaid’s DNF in 2022 as a loss to Fisher. I suppose that’s my main point.

Apart from a limited sample of US finals, Fisher is 3-0 against Kincaid in 10ks. And sure Kincaid ran 26:57 this year, but I believe it’s flawed logic to use that as evidence he’ll beat Fisher who romped to an easy 26:52 win in the same race.

LetsRun.com wrote:

It seems as if JG views Kincaid as the Ingebrigtsen of the 10k - hard to beat if it's not rabbited.

Link:www.letsrun.com/news/2024/06/olympic-t...

So who wins and who makes the team? Young may eventually win a US 10,000 title, but as good as he has been this year (he did beat Kincaid head-to-head at The TEN but that had a rabbit), it feels too early in his career for him to win a US title in 2024. And while you can't ever count Chelimo out, he has always been a better 5,000 runner than 10,000 runner and his results this year just have not been impressive.

That leaves Fisher and Kincaid. Fisher beat Kincaid by five seconds at The TEN in March, 26:52 to 26:57. The logical inference is to view that as a good sign for Fisher, but I view it differently. The fact that Kincaid was able to run 26:57 -- a pb by nine seconds -- means he is incredibly strong and will be even harder to drop than he was last year, when Fisher took off with 1200 left, went 60.55-59.91-58.39 for his last three laps and still got blasted by Kincaid's 54.76 final 400. Fisher is the better Olympic medal bet, but in a slower race at the Trials, I still trust Kincaid's kick more -- even though he has not raced in three months.

1. Kincaid 2. Fisher 3. Young