TL; DR: it depends, and you may not even have enough data to have a good guess.
Sorry, but first:
— are you confident that you have good quality measurements (e.g., good chest strap)?
— do you have enough readings taken over time for each?
I’m assuming you’re talking about average for each of those runs/paces. Do you experience similar cardiac drift in each?
Pardon me if you’ve already considered this, but since I don’t have information from you to rule it out, here goes. Here’s one way to think about it: my marathon pace heart rate is higher at mile 10 minute mile five. Same effort level.
I wouldn’t think you do enough distance and threshold to go more than 40 minutes, and seldom even that high, but if you have a lot of 20 to 30 minute volume at threshold, what you consider your threshold HR might be different than it would be if you had a lot of 25 minute workouts. And if you’re primarily doing intervals for threshold, that would be a factor too.
But the big thing is your level level of fitness and pace. Obviously, somebody incredibly fit and at OTQ level can run a race closer to threshold pace/effort/HR than a 3:30 runner without blowing up. And I think I’d read that elites generally are able to race marathons at higher % of max HR than even, say, 2:30 runners, with that even being a little bit more pronounced than their different times would suggest.
And, of course, there will be individual variations.