Kentucky Derby Marathon this weekend - temps in the high 60s

I suppose there's also the question of "is 7-8 minutes under BQ going to be enough to get into Boston?"

I am also doing Kentucky. Weather is definitely too warm for a fast time. I was aiming to run around 3:00 flat and think I am in shape for it but I think I will just start at 7:00 pace (about 3:03:30) and see how it goes. I have been training in 80+ during my taper in the South so the heat might be a little more manageable for me than for a Northerner. I am actually hoping it rains. It might be more bearable. I have a BQ at minus 19 right now so at least I don't have to worry about that.

I put 3:00 into an online calculator and it converted the time at 66 degrees to 3:01:57 and at 70 degrees to 3:03:03. I think that might be a bit aggressive, though. I think running within seven minutes of your goal should be certainly doable.

The bad thing about going for a BQ in late April is there is no opportunity for a backup race; summer is upon us and the heat is here to stay. I am aiming for a fast time at Indianapolis this fall but I might make that my backup race. I'm currently thinking Columbus/Detroit/Des Moines on Oct 20 and then Indy three weeks later. I hate it when bad weather screws up a months-long marathon prep.

Stay extra hydrated throughout the week and start conservatively.

Thanks for the reply. I think I'll plan to start around 6:50 pace (2:59 marathon pace) and see how that feels. And then if I can't even hold that then I guess 2025 Boston wasn't meant to be. As you said there are plenty of fast courses in the fall so Boston may have to wait until 2026 if I wilt in the heat.

Yeah that was going to be my advice OP. You could take a crack at sub-2:50 with your PBs but not if you didn't train for that & not in this weather. Looks like ~10s/mile conversion. If you were shooting for 6:40ish then go for 6:50ish. I wouldn't be afraid to float even 6:55-7:00 in the 1st 10k before dialing into 6:50s. I know it's not fun to race for something you didn't train for but you can still run a good marathon that'll be worth something a lot faster. You can't control the BQ cutoff & if you get in you'll have a small leg up on people who ran similar times in better conditions.

Temps turned out to be about 70 at the start I believe. Only 6 people under 2:50, 21 under 3:00, and 32 under 3:10 as opposed to 11, 29, and 49 last year.

I was about 10 under my BQ but I have a 19 under for next year already so I'm not concerned. I suffered horribly on that final out and back. I started having calf cramps at mile 21 and had to slow my pace to prevent them from a total spasm. I definitely did not drink nearly enough fluids. I carried a 20 oz bottle and did not finish it until about mile 24 when I took a short walk through the water station to make sure I could drink an entire cup of Powerade.

I HATED the fact that once we got back to Churchill Downs on the return trip, there were hundreds of half marathon walkers all over the road. It was just dodge and weave through traffic from mile 18 to mile 22.

The worst thing that ever happened was adding a marathon to this race.

The half marathon used to be the featured race and that half marathon was a good one.

Somebody took over the race from Gil Clark and Metro Parks and added a marathon to it, ruining a great feature half marathon race and diluting a great local competitive field.

OP here again. Yes it was a warm one out there. I went out in 1:29 and held that pace through about 24 miles but then faded and finished in 3:01:10. My 26th mile was a painful 8:01. I don't think 3:50 under BQ will be good enough to get into Boston but I'll go ahead and register in September and see what happens.

Sorry to hear about your struggles the last few miles. I saw a lot of people suffering after the turnaround before mile 24 so you weren't alone.

I liked the course but agree that the miles 18-22 where we had to dodge the walkers was just ridiculous. I missed two water stations during that stretch because I couldn't get around all the walkers blocking the stations. That alone may have cost me the sub 3. I probably won't be back to do the full, but may consider the half in the future.