An American woman hasn't finished in the top 10 at World XC in 13 years, will Weini Kelati end that streak in 2024?

Based on the results from 2022, the people that finish around 10th are 15/31 runners. You can click the names in the results to see PRs:

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FINAL | Senior Race | Results | Bathurst 23 | World Athletics Cross Country Championships

44th World Athletics Cross Country Championships, Outdoor | FINAL | Senior Race | Results

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Kelati can place 5th staying tactically sound, maybe higher with a break or two.

It’s cross country and anything can happen. Kenya’s top 5 are wildly better runners however. All could run sub-30 in good conditions. Top 10 would be great and is realistic because there are few great non-Kenyans in the field.

Are you high? Really are you high right now?

Ever heard of Allie O?

Watch her medal 🏅

Would it even really count? I want my records built in murrican.

Fix the poll category description for top 20 at the end of that piece:

Top 20 (19-20)

shelby houlihan the goat is robbed, would win this race easily then whip her 3rd leg out for celebration

If you like Weini Kelati,

And getting caught in the rain.

Yes, the Kenyan numbers are splashy and seem to place 5th out of reach. Nonetheless, Kelati is full of run and confidence at the moment and I probably give her collegiate XC body of work more weight than most. Say Kelati holds well, still in the top 10 through 8k, while Kipkemboi and another Kenyan underperform on the day. My money's on the 2019 NCAA XC Champ to race herself into one of those "vacated" spots.

Yes, I would be wondering if it will be top 5.

She is going to be Top 10 in the world in the 10K at the Olympics. She is in the best shape of her life.

Another reminder that Deena Drossin was so, so good.

Not sure if you appreciate the quality of the Kenyans in this race. There are 5 who are on another level than Kelati’s ever shown herself to be, and a sixth who might beat her as well.

I also expect the Ethiopian and Ugandan teams to exceed their name recognition. Ethiopia has a couple 2:20ish marathoners I’d never heard of, because it’s Ethiopia, and the country always runs well at World XC. Someone like 21 year old Ugandan Joy Cheptoyek probably isn’t on your radar but she’s run 14:28 and 30:03 on the roads in the last few months. There’s a Burundian who might beat Kelati, and Norah Jeruto (repping Kazakhstan) would be expected to IF she’s in good form, which is a big if. Karoline Grovdal could also give Kelati a good run.

All told, I think 10th-13th is the most likely outcome for Kelati.

Top 10 yes. Medalling only if 3 of the top 5 Kenyans blow up in the heat. If she runs a smart race I say 7th at best