Sub 2:45 Feasibility

What is your current half marathon pace/pr?

Isthis your first marathon?

If not, previous results?

Sorry, obviously not your first marathon. What was your qualifier?

In October 2022 I ran 2:48 in Chicago as my qualifier. More recently I ran 1:15:26 at the Richmond Half Marathon in November.

Definitely looks like you're in the ballpark. Threshold workout looks in line with someone targeting sub-2:40. Obviously 6:10s are low-2:40s. 1:15 half puts sub-2:40 in play but the sub-2:45 is probably right for the mileage & you have to go off of the long tempos.

If the weather is good at Boston, run 6:15s through the 1st 10k. It's easy to get carried away and, with your speed, you could easily run 6-flat or faster and think you're banking time. Run relaxed early then settle into 6:10s from 10k-25k when the course flattens out. Mile 15-16 should be your fastest of the race up to that point, without even trying on a big downhill leading into the 128 overpass. Run by effort 16-21. Don't try to force certain splits in there. You might be 10-20s/mile slow at times. Then rip 21-22 (graveyard mile). It's another downhill flyer. If you have legs there you know it's on & that you're having a good day. Can grab a few seconds/mile back 22-finish, with the slightly downhill miles.

Adjust your goals for weather if you have to. The 10am start can throw anything at you. Hopefully you get a good day for it but sometimes 2:45 effort @ Boston gets you a 2:50 & going out at 2:45 on a day like that gets you something closer to 3 hours.

NERunner offers good advice -- almost the entire field at Boston thinks they're banking time by running the first half a little under goal pace. It's hard to even sense it when everyone charges those downhills; you feel like you're not speeding u because everyone else is doing it too. But on the second half of the course people's legs start fading, and the final 8K is just carnage.

That is a great race plan and very thoughtful response. I am going to execute that plan and let you know how it goes.

Dude you ran a 1:15 you SHOULD easily run sub 2:45. I went 2:41 last year after having run 78:30 in that same training cycle. You should be asking yourself if you can go sub 2:35, which I think would be a yes.

Sorry but not on that mileage