Who will be the first runner breaking 1:40.00 at the 800m? Will it happen this year?

Another way of thinking about this is to ask what you think the absolute limit is to human performance in these events might be? 1:35 and 3:22?

Assuming we don't evolve in any meaningful way in the next 100 years, how can humans be expected to run faster than Rudisha? Here are your options if you are human:

1. Be a one in ten billion talent like Rudisha was.

2. Gain access to some new (even better) shoe or track surface technology.

3. Dope without getting caught.

Here are the things that won't be enough to run 3:25 or 1:39:

1. Get great coaching

2. Try harder than anyone in the world ever has

3. Do all the "little things" like diet and rest and stretching and weights.

Those last three are great but there is no way to do them better or differently from the dozens of world record holders and OG finalists.

Also, OP, are you talking about in real spikes or are spring spikes allowed? Seems like less of a benefit the less aerobic the event, but the 800 m. is still about 50/50.

I have to laugh at this, because sub 1:40 has been a talked about since Coe ran 1:41.73 in I believe 1981, They were sure he was going to be the one. Yet it still hasn’t happened.

Sub 3:30 1500, done. Sub 3:45 mile, done. Sub 4:50 2k, done. Sub 7:30 3k, done. Sub 8:00 2mile, done. Sub 8:00 steeple, done. Sub 13:00 5k, done. Sub 27:00 10k, done. All these track barriers were talked about and broken since I started running in 1971. But the sub 1:40 800 has not been broken. That is a barrier I may not live to see broken.

49.9 and 50.0 400’s ( or 50.0 and 49.9) without rest maybe too much for humans right now. I’m hoping I’m wrong.

I like what Mark Twain said about statistics: "There are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics."

Statistics is a useful tool, but also a crutch for lazy thinkers (or those who can't.)

Here is a concept: Is it possible statistics are a reflection of real-world attitudes and presumptions, in the cases of human events determined by human behavior?

Your IQ has now been raised by 10 points. Drink a glass of water and get to bed soon for the effect to set.

Great post. There might be some physiological limit that we are bumping up against in the 800. It is such a hard event...

I don't understand why anyone would break 1:40.00 this year when people have been struggling to break 1:43:00 the past few years. Rudisha was a generational talent. It could be a couple decades before his WR is broken since supershoes don't seem to be a thing in the 800m yet.

Totally unexpected post!

Letsile Tebogo would be the guy. A 44.29s sprinter with a running form of a distance guy.

Sadly it's in the human nature to want to run the shortest distance one is good at.

Same goes for Women's 800m WR. Femke Bol and Athing Mu could take it, yet Femke hates the thought of 800m and Athing hates racing altogether.

The obvious is beyond most fans.

Quincy Wilson will be the first under 1:40!! He still looks young for his age and so far has an excellent coach. It depends on where he goes post high school.

Surprised that people are talking about Arop more than Wanyonyi on this thread. Wanyonyi is younger, has run faster, and has run more consistently fast. He and Sumner, due to his age and 400m speed making him seem like possibly a better version of Brazier, seem like the best prospects of current pro 800m runners to run really fast.

And to be clear, I am talking about running in the 1:41s, not breaking 1:40. I don't think that's possible for anyone on the scene right now.

I'm going back about 8 years and I don't have access to the article, but I read that the 2nd lap of most of the 800 world records has stayed close to the same, it's the 1st lap that has gotten faster.

Typically there's a 2-4 second differential between the first and last lap (in an all out race, not a tactical race).

So, they would have to go out in 48(very low) or 47(high) then come back in 52.

You need someone with the speed to run 46 and the endurance to run 3:30 in the 1500.

The better question would be, is there anyone willing to become a pharmacy experiment beyond what we already to have to accomplish this. They are all already doped out of their minds and still haven't touched Rudisha's mark from 2012.

The future ? ...keep an eye on young David Kratochvilova of whereabouts-unknown.

I saw someone downvoted you for even asking about four turn stagger. Most posters refuse to consider changes but believe things can remain the same and someone will race sub-1:40 800m.

There is already no drafting for first 1/4 of 800m races. There is no drafting from start to 100m. There is no drafting from 100m to 200m, everyone is racing a tangent from 100m to 200m. There is no drafting the last 1/8 of 800m. Gals & guys go into lane 4 if necessary.

A poster on this thread questioned if we are near human limits, 800m. Yes. Middle distance T&F athletes have been doing workouts since 18th Century. Runners logging over 100 miles per week, which has been done since late-1940-something or early 1950-something may help some 1500m runners but 100 miles per week-type training doesn't improve 800m performances. If this thread were on letssprint.com, posters would embrace the idea of making 800m more attractive to sprinters. Distance guys are not going to race sub-1:40 800m. We have seventy-five summers of evidence. If a man cannot sprint sub-46 400m, he isn't breaking 1:41 800m. Certainly a 46.xx 400m guy isn't breaking 1:40.

I think there's a chance that human society breaks down before someone goes sub-1:40. I wouldn't say the same for 3:24.99.

Cade Flatt.

-Cade Flatt

This is an interesting, but at the same time a tricky one.

To break the 1:40 barrier, is there a more "advantage" coming from the 400m event (having more top speed) and from that building up more endurance based training and therefore not to lose too much speed on the second lap?

As you mention ,top middle-distance runners, more suitable for 1500m, who's covering 100 miles per week, 800m at those fast splits (48+52 / 49+52sec per 400m) might be too fast to run relaxed enough with so much lactate last 100-150m compared to a 400/800m specialist?

I've always saw runners like Jeremy Wariner and Allyson Felix as tailored runners for 800m (running like cheetahs - long smooth strides, so relaxed). But as far as I know they hated compete at longer than 400m.

Could runners like Karsten Warholm be a 1:40 candidate if he went up to 800m in the future?