The way the collegiate system is set up he is in peak shape right now, as most of the pros are not. The Olympic trials is still a ways away. We are seeing him at his best, in the best race. Come June 2024 it will be a different story. He has run a full cross country, full indoor, and now outdoor track season. That momentum will not be around to carry him through June 2024.
For years I have stated indoor season is fine for 100m to 800m athletes, jumpers and throwers. I can argue both sides for 1500m specialists. I don't indoor season for 3000m to 10000m athletes.
That is why you take some down time before building back up after indoors. You are mistaken if you think US pros running sub 27 aren’t hitting a peak. The only exception maybe is Fisher.
Young could take the next 3 months off and do nothing while all the other 10K guys have to still hit the standard. There probably won't be another 10K chance until April/May. Almost 0 chance the standard gets hit at trials, so right now the team is basically Fisher Young Kincaid unless someone else hits the standard before then.
With Chelimo falling 2 seconds short last year at another time trial after The TEN (might have been 2022 actually), it isn't guaranteed that the next time trials will be as fast as The TEN.
He may have peaked now, but he has all that time to rest and rebuild
Young could take the next 3 months off and do nothing while all the other 10K guys have to still hit the standard. There probably won't be another 10K chance until April/May. Almost 0 chance the standard gets hit at trials, so right now the team is basically Fisher Young Kincaid unless someone else hits the standard before then.
With Chelimo falling 2 seconds short last year at another time trial after The TEN (might have been 2022 actually), it isn't guaranteed that the next time trials will be as fast as The TEN.
He may have peaked now, but he has all that time to rest and rebuild
Klecker has two sub 27:10's now in his world ranking and would be the first one in on world ranking, there are 3 slots left of people who can qualify on world ranking (4 if you remove one of USA's autos). So if there aren't 4 guys from countries excluding Ethiopia and Kenya (the only other countries with 3 people with the standard) then Klecker would be qualified by ranking. But if some race happens where let's say two Japanese guys, a Ugandan, a Frenchman run sub 27 then Klecker's out.
Sort of agree here. He is going to need some serious down time or he might burn out. Problem is he ran every single race 100% from December until now. We are already through mid March. He will still need to qualify for outdoor NCAA regional, then run conference, then run regional, then NCAAs and then Olympic trials. That’s a ton. On the other hand you have another college guy like Blanks who apparently got knicked up after his fall season, took off indoor and is building up again. I almost feel like he may be in a better spot to peak than Nico almost by default. Nico could also just shut it down, turn pro and just focus on Olympics. He already got his NCAA titles and the Olympics only come every four years.
Young could take the next 3 months off and do nothing while all the other 10K guys have to still hit the standard. There probably won't be another 10K chance until April/May. Almost 0 chance the standard gets hit at trials, so right now the team is basically Fisher Young Kincaid unless someone else hits the standard before then.
With Chelimo falling 2 seconds short last year at another time trial after The TEN (might have been 2022 actually), it isn't guaranteed that the next time trials will be as fast as The TEN.
He may have peaked now, but he has all that time to rest and rebuild
Klecker has two sub 27:10's now in his world ranking and would be the first one in on world ranking, there are 3 slots left of people who can qualify on world ranking (4 if you remove one of USA's autos). So if there aren't 4 guys from countries excluding Ethiopia and Kenya (the only other countries with 3 people with the standard) then Klecker would be qualified by ranking. But if some race happens where let's say two Japanese guys, a Ugandan, a Frenchman run sub 27 then Klecker's out.
But part of the problem with relying on ranking vs the standard is that as more people get the standard from other countries with less than 3 qualified people right now, the maximum spots for standard entries get filled, and then those people start to fill the ranking spots with better than Klecker times.
And you also have to contend with random 10KM road racing results filling the rankings and potentially giving an entry standard. Then there are the controversial cross country rankings that can fill up up to 8 ranking spots if country's federations decide to use them. Those XC spots can override standard ranking and just straight up give you the standard.
Point being that right now, qualifying on ranking is extremely dubious especially because of those cross country spots.
Klecker has two sub 27:10's now in his world ranking and would be the first one in on world ranking, there are 3 slots left of people who can qualify on world ranking (4 if you remove one of USA's autos). So if there aren't 4 guys from countries excluding Ethiopia and Kenya (the only other countries with 3 people with the standard) then Klecker would be qualified by ranking. But if some race happens where let's say two Japanese guys, a Ugandan, a Frenchman run sub 27 then Klecker's out.
But part of the problem with relying on ranking vs the standard is that as more people get the standard from other countries with less than 3 qualified people right now, the maximum spots for standard entries get filled, and then those people start to fill the ranking spots with better than Klecker times.
And you also have to contend with random 10KM road racing results filling the rankings and potentially giving an entry standard. Then there are the controversial cross country rankings that can fill up up to 8 ranking spots if country's federations decide to use them. Those XC spots can override standard ranking and just straight up give you the standard.
Point being that right now, qualifying on ranking is extremely dubious especially because of those cross country spots.
I was already accounting for the 8 cross country spots, and I'm assuming they will be used. Which means there are 19 other spots remaining, 16 of them are currently by standard and 3 by ranking. So again, it would need to be 4 more people who are not from USA/Kenya/Ethiopia who run sub 27:00. But in reality there aren't that many countries with people that close. Japan and Uganda are the two scariest countries that might be able to find one, or another east african country like Eritrea. But there aren't very many fast 10,000m races in the world, I'd be shocked if there's more than 1 more race this year in the next few months that produces sub 27 times, and it's likely that the people who do it are from Kenya/Ethiopia.
This take is tepid af. I think the team will be Fisher, Young and Kincaid—not only because they have the standard, but because they finish top 3 in the Trials 10k.
I was already accounting for the 8 cross country spots, and I'm assuming they will be used. Which means there are 19 other spots remaining, 16 of them are currently by standard and 3 by ranking. So again, it would need to be 4 more people who are not from USA/Kenya/Ethiopia who run sub 27:00. But in reality there aren't that many countries with people that close. Japan and Uganda are the two scariest countries that might be able to find one, or another east african country like Eritrea. But there aren't very many fast 10,000m races in the world, I'd be shocked if there's more than 1 more race this year in the next few months that produces sub 27 times, and it's likely that the people who do it are from Kenya/Ethiopia.
Still its super risky with 3 months until lock in.
There are 2 guys, Gressier (France), Lobalu (Switzerland) right around his result level that could bump him down if they get one more good result. Then it just takes one more guy out of nowhere to snipe the 3rd ranking spot or the standard. Like a Rogers Kibet (Uganda) or someone from Japan like you said. Japan has 3 guys right around the 27:10 range.
The way the collegiate system is set up he is in peak shape right now, as most of the pros are not. The Olympic trials is still a ways away. We are seeing him at his best, in the best race. Come June 2024 it will be a different story. He has run a full cross country, full indoor, and now outdoor track season. That momentum will not be around to carry him through June 2024.
His coach knows what he’s doing. His efforts will be carefully measured between now and the trials.