What is Hobbs Kessler?

I barely know where I am going so I haven’t the foggiest notion about where HK is going. But he seems like a guy who could eventually run 3:29xx and be a fixture in US middle distance for a decade. But that is probably not the most likely outcome. Maybe he will go into coaching in 5-7 years.

He def doesn’t look fully developed. He’s progressing and training right. Knows how to race.

Seems like a perfect candidate for a 3:29 guy who has the tools to get medals.

Seeing that he's barely done speed work this season except for racing, I'd say sub 3:30 this year and 1:44.x if he gets in the right race.

Career: 3:26 / 3:42 would not be surprising.

....He was already faster than the NCAA 1500 record straight out of HS before Guse re-set it in his final race of his final NCAA season. Your comparison to Beamish, Kerr is nonsense because he's already 5-7 seconds faster than they were in the NCAA at age 20!

Kessler may not be on the podium in Paris but by 2028 he may be the greatest US miler ever.

For now, 2024 is shaping up to be one of the greatest years ever for milers and Kessler is part of that.

You are thinking too hard. He just lost a world championship final to 2 kickers by one stride.

Clearly there was a possibility that he hung on for the win and the kickers came up just short. His front running tactic was even quite good, as he found that Centro front position on the rail and never gave it up til the last stride.

He has plenty of time to do all you mention from 800 thru 5000. We will see how he develops, but I'm not going to worry much about it, because he lost a race at age 20 by 3ft.

He is a 20 years old male human (homo sapiens).

His racing intelligence is growing by leaps and bounds.

He is not the only great 20 year old on the planet, but all of this is possible as long as he avoids injury and builds upon his strengths each year. And he has found his coach.

It would be SHOCKING, like truly unbelievable if HK runs that fast. I would bet a lot of money against it.

Yeah I predicted he’d win Olympic Gold in 2028 a few months ago. Still betting on it, especially since he’s gotten significantly better.
Also, I thought Nuguse set (soloed) the NCAA 1500 record at conference prelims or something, and Kessler ran faster than that record while still in HS. Nuguse’s last race that season was NCAAs, where he lost to Hocker in 3:35. Nuguse’s last season was a bit lackluster iirc due to injury. He set the 3k record indoors but didn’t do much else.
Not that it particularly matters ofc. He’s 20 and is already a world champ in the road mile and has world indoor bronze, along with a 3:48 PB (2s faster than the NCAA record). I think he’s the most talented 1500m runner we’ve had since at least Jim Ryun, and with Warhurst as his coach, I completely believe Kessler is gonna get as good as he possibly can.

Yeah the obvious appraisal is somewhere between OP’s pessimism and 3:42 haha. Like, 3:42 is significantly less likely than him winning Olympic gold. I don’t see why he can’t be contending for 1500 medals (including gold) for the next decade or more.

This year, sub-3:30 and making the Olympic final would be good goals, but time is on his side as long as he stays healthy and keeps improving season upon season.

He said on the Sweat Elite podcast that he thinks he could run a 1:44 but will never get under that. He's been training with Bryce Hoppel and is reminded every day that he does not have what it takes to be a 1:43 guy. He believes it's genetic, that the elite 800m guys are just made for that event.

As for the 5000m, he said he wants to break 13 some day. And that it's basically a necessity these days with the way the 1500m is run. Some of his teammates are close to 13 and he hangs with them fine on longer sessions so he doesn't think it's that far from reality.

So... he's a 1500m runner. He's world class in that event already. The times he sees himself running for the 800 and 5000 aren't on the same level. But he does want to have a range and used Stewy McSweyn as an example of someone he'd want to be like (maybe because the podcast host is Australian?) But Stewy can run well from 1500m up to 10,000m. Hobbs wants to be "a good runner" overall, not just a good 1500m runner.

Kessler is what he is right now, which is good enough. He surely

can run 7:34 or better, he ran 7:39 in a race he was disconnected in last year.And will probably break 1:45.00 this year. I would say as rounded a guy as we have had in a while at this age.He will be 21 in less than 2 weeks. But, if anyone heard his interview that was attached on another thread? He seems to have a much bigger grasp on a bunch of things. I think he could run 13:0x for 5K, he is kind of modest in the interview. I was actually surprised at how he has handled all of this. A long way from where people thought just a year or less ago.

Considering he is faster at 3K even as of last year and the mile by a bit than Beadlescomb and Flanagan , both of whom ran 13:04.x or faster?

Considering what Parker Wolfe has run? Kessler could surely run sub 13:10 now. That is what folks are looking at a 1:45 guy at least who probably can run sub 13:10.No one we have had recently has that range , certainly not at 21.Hocker after his 8:05 yards..maybe but at 22+.

Well Nuguse surely has quite a range but he is older for sure.

@ Kobbs Hessler

Where you at?

It should be noted that Neils Laros is an 18 y.o. that's already at 3:48 & 1:44

Hobbs Kessler has lots of upside potential, as much as a short list of other individuals around the world, but with a much cooler name. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he breaks the world records in the 1500m and 1 mile, but others may get there first.

"A 20 year kid that just got 3rd in the World Indoor Mile in only his 3rd tactical indoor race ever....I dont know...maybe he's a.....MILER?!" -Norm Macdonald voice

I actually don't disagree with much of your assessment, at least as far as this season is concerned. Will he run sub-3:28/3:45 this season? Seems a little unlikely, but if he got several races paced to those speeds, he may be able to. Remember, he ran 3:48 in an indoor race that lagged for a quarter mile, so I would guess he could already have run at least a second faster in the perfect race.

In a time trial race, I agree that Jakob (in 2023 form) and Nuguse certainly have the advantage on Kessler. Kerr has improved his aerobic fitness, has a lot of experience, and clearly has a kick, so he has an advantage regardless of the pace. Wightman (in 2022 form), Hocker, and Beamish have better kicks in slower races, but I feel Kessler will close that gap if he gets down to 3:28 fitness.

And there are certainly other players as well. Laros, the Australians, Kenyans, other Brits, other Americans, etc - there could be a lot of guys in sub-3:30 shape this summer.

Still, I feel Kessler will likely be in shape for 3rd-10th place in the Paris final (obviously lots of racing to get through to make it onto the US team and into the final - he could fail to make the US team but if you put him into the Olympics he'd be in shape to get top 10). In coming years, I see him in the mix for 1st-5th in championship finals.

As to whether it is more likely he gets Olympic gold or runs 3:26/3:42 in his career... there is only one Olympic gold every 4 years in the 1500, but you can run fast every year. Nuguse already ran 3:43 high. My take is that if the world records get down to 3:25/3:41 in the next 8 years, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kessler within a second of those times.

the BEST part about him is that he's CLEARLY not on the fat-melting mo-farah galen-rupp, team SKY Train drug that makes you look like a skeleton. I'm looking at wiggins and froome as well.

He's built like a normal dude yet he can run as fast as them. Love that he's not on that medicine.

I mean....3:26/3:42 would be very surprising considering that would make him the fastest 1500/mile runner of all time unless Jakob or someone else lowers those those records. Needs to dip under 3:30 and 3:47 with some ease before we start throwing around "world record holder" talk with this guy.