1) 2:00:35 may be the world record for a very, very long time. Before EK and KK (and the shoes), the world record in the marathon was coming down at a glacial rate and in small (10-20 second) chunks. From 1993-2003 the WR moved from 2:06:50-2:04:55. From 2003-20:13, 2:04:55-2:03:23. The rate was obviously slowing as it got harder and harder and the gains from improved training/tech/popularity slowed down.
There was of course a titanic jump from 2013-2023 from 2:03:23-2:00:35 - owing solely to two factors in carbon plated shoes and two extraordinarily talented athletes. Now that we have seen their impact (EK unfortunately most likely does not have another WR in him), we will have to wait for a new KK emerge in order to lop an entire second per kilometer off the WR.
I’m in the camp that believes Kipchoge actually would have been better at the marathon had he started earlier similar to Kiptum, and also that Kiptum easily had the potential to go sub-2 (he would have done it in Rotterdam…). However since neither of them did it, it’s going to take some time before we see another capable. It will take a world class 5000/10000 talent moving to the road early ala Kiptum. Maybe that person is running now, maybe not, maybe they aren’t even alive. We are reaching the asymptote of human performance assuming there isn’t another huge technological breakthrough.
So who will it be? If I had to pick someone that is currently running, being optimistic that we don’t know them yet… My bet: Jacob Kiplimo in the late 2020’s. Practically nobody has better under distance credential/talent and he has clearly shown a willingness to attack the road. 12:41/57:31 (not to mention 27:26 at age 15 just showing his otherworldly engine). If not him, I really don’t see who else could do it in this current generation. Barega and Kejelcha potentially with their 57:40 capabilities but honestly I just have a hard time seeing them doing it. Ingebrigtsen, maybe can do it, but at the very least I doubt he will be the first (though I’m in the camp that thinks he wouldn’t take to the marathon as the 1500-5000).
Of course, Kiptum himself didn’t even show the “talent” of what he would become at ALL before Valencia 2022 - his best result a 58:42 half at age 21. So maybe there is a chance it will be someone completely unexpected, a genuine new KK.
2) Not really as important, but the last 4 people to hold the world record in the marathon have had last names that start with “Ki-“. Kiptum, Kipchoge, Kimetto, Kipsang. What are the odds the man to break 2 also starts with Ki? According to my prediction I believe the streak will extend to 5.