Official 2024 Millrose Games Discussion Thread - Will the men's mile and 2-mile WRs fall?

I've got Nuguse in the mile 3:49, and in the 2-mile, if Kerr wins, no wr, if Fisher wins, wr.

Fisher FTW and WR.

Book it sub 8.

That wiki page on trusses is pretty hot

I have in other treads predicted that Nuguse will win the Mile in WR time and that Fisher will win the 2 mile also in WR time.

As pointed out by others Nuguse was already close to Kejelcha´s WR a year ago so it should absolutely be possible to get it this year if he is just close to his 2023 level. I predict Mills as runner up in new UK indoor record.

Simularly: If Fisher is in reasonable shape he should be able to take Mo Farah´s indoor WB. I have estimated that runners on this high level can determine their 2 mile time by adding about 34 seconds to their 3000m time. So Fisher "only" has to run at a little over 7:29 pace (around 4 seconds from his PB) for the 3000m to go under the 2 mile WB at 8:03.40.

Josh Kerr on the other hand has to PB with around 4 seconds to dip under this current WB.

So I find it unlikely that Kerr will be able to challenge Fisher on the 2 mile distance.

These are my stupid, pretty optimistic predictions:

1. Yared Nuguse 3:46.9 WR
2. George Mills 3:48.1 AR
3. Hobbs Kessler 3:49.5
4. Cooper Teare 3:49.9
5. Mario Garcia Romo 3:51.2
6. Andrew Coscoran 3:51.4
7. Sam Prakel 3:52.0
8. Charles Philibert-Thiboutot 3:52.3

1. Josh Kerr 8:02.8 WR
2. Grant Fisher 8:03.4 AR
3. George Beamish 8:07.9 AR
4. Cole Hocker 8:08.4
5. Joe Klecker 8:08.7
6. Morgan McDonald 8:10.7
7. Kieran Lumb 8:13.9
8. Keita Satoh 8:14.5 AR

1. Jessica Hull 4:16.8 AR
2. Elle St. Pierre 4:17.6
3. Josette Andrews 4:21.0
4. Dani Jones 4:22.5
5. Lucia Stafford 4:22.9
6. Helen Schlachtenhaufen 4:23.2
7. Anna Camp Bennett 4:23.5
8. Marta Perez 4:24.8

1. Laura Muir 9:06.2 AR
2. Alicia Monson 9:07.0 AR
3. Medina Eisa 9:10.5
4. Melknat Wudu 9:10.6
5. Nozomi Tanaka 9:12.8 AR
6. Nikki Hiltz 9:14.0
7. Courtney Wayment 9:14.2
8. Emily Mackay 9:14.4

Fisher: 7:59.3 FTW and new WR

Kerr: 8:04.7

Excited for this meet! I’m curious why the article has Kerr billed as the headliner for the two-mile. I understand he’s the reigning world champion at 1500, but he’s not running in the Wanamaker Mile. After Fisher’s American record in the 3,000 to close out last year, shouldn’t he be considered a co-headliner with Kerr in the two-mile? Fisher’s 7:25 is far superior to Kerr’s 7:33 PB.

Cole SHocker is here to surprise the world this weekend you heard it here first

Has Josh Kerr withdrawn yet?

Kerr is the one that the 2 mile has been set up around- pacing, hype, etc for a WR effort.

I don´t know why you are so bullish on Kerr. To run 8:02 in the 2mile he should be in 7:28 or perhaps even in 7:27 shape in the 3000m. I will be quite surprised if Kerr comes close to the current WR.

I maintain that it is MUCH more likely that Fisher will be in that kind of shape as the much faster 3000m and 5000m runner.

---------------

Your men mile predictions seem reasonable.

Yared Nuguse 3:42.75 WR

and
Vincent Kibet Keter

will be the Olympic champion 2024.

As surely as ur mom wears super shoes.

Don't forget how they ran their times. Fisher got tugged along in the DL final while Jakob was chasing the WR. I don't think anyone realized how fast he was running until the final stretch when he kicked into 3rd. He was also essentially peaking for that race.

Compare that to Kerr, who ran 7:33 with a HUGE kick in February to win comfortably. He was definitely in sub-7:30 shape that day, and from there, it's not a big jump to 7:27.

Feeling a bit more skeptical about saying Nuguse will win but no WR, because now I kinda feel like it's the least likely outcome. I'm sticking by it though.

Pacing will be a much bigger question mark in today's mile than when Nuguse ran 3:43. Two big questions:

1. How does Derek Holdsworth do on the pacing job? I don't believe he has paced a high-caliber race like this before. He ran 1:47.56 two weeks ago, so he should be fit enough to make it 1k. But hopefully he doesn't take them out too fast, then tie up after 800m and hold the field back, like many mid-distance specialists pacing longer races.

2. Will anybody push the third quarter? This is arguably where the WR slipped last year, as everybody was content to stick behind a fading MGR and slowed to a 59. You have to think Nuguse or Mills will take more initiative this year with the WR attempt more publicized.

That being said, if the pacing is off, we could be treated to an exciting race between Nuguse, Mills, Kessler, Teare, and others. I would also love to see Nuguse do something crazy like last year and nab the WR closing in 25.

Hobbs Kessler is taking the W in 3:45.8 today

If he clocks 3:49 like you predicted, he’s very vulnerable. But if he runs 3:47.xx and barely misses the WR, which is a reasonably likely scenario, I like his odds to win that race. Yes, Mills and MGR have run 3:47.65 & 3:47.69 respectively, but it’s doubtful MGR will come anywhere near that given his past year’s indoor results and his stinker 5k at BU. Mills could be in that shape, or it’s possible that 1) he was already a sub-13 5k guy in the late summer and 2) he’s in more of a strength phase/lacks top-end now. As good as Kessler is, a 3:47.xx for him or anyone else I haven’t mentioned would be a significant breakthrough and a fairly shocking result.

Hopefully Holdsworth nails the pacing, because on a good day he should be able to get them to 1009m on schedule (2:21.5-2:23.5). From there it’s not too daunting for Nuguse to count to 3 laps—last year, he led the last two but didn’t drop the hammer until the last 200, this year the plan may be a controlled squeeze before emptying the tank on the last lap. I predict he barely eeks out the record but the critics on LetsRun, who know no limit, say he doesn’t look as good as Millrose last year.