I've been training for 2024 Tokyo marathon, my 5th marathon w/ prior PB of 3:15 and now aiming for sub 3 BQ (male late 20s), I ran a 10k race last week at 37:20 and half marathon 2 weeks ago at 1:23:20, both on a hillier course than Tokyo (10k 300 ft, half marathon had 750 ft elevation gain), I've been running 70+ mpw the last 12 weeks (70,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,80,80) with 20-30 mile long run each of those weeks, (prior marathon I was running 30-40 mppw) and legs have been holding up and feel great, my original goal was to aim for ~2:59 and 6:50 pace but VDOT table has my marathon equivalent at 2:54:13/ 6:39 pace, is that accurate for the most part?
I don't want to get ahead of myself with trying to do too much but obviously getting under 3 hours as much as possible would increase the chance of getting in. My original plan for sub 3 was to start the race conservatively like mid 6:50 and then push the pace to 6:50, but maybe I should start instead at 6:50 instead and push the pace to low 6:40s later on if I feel great? Barring any catastrophes in training remaining and a good taper. Any suggestions?