How much "extra energy" does it really take to lead?

On a day without much wind, I don’t think leading would put you at very much of a physical disadvantage especially if no one is drafting directly behind you.

As far as the mental side, some runners feel comfortable leading, but that may help others who are able to “go to sleep” and be pulled along by an invisible towrope.

I think it's significant to draft more so mentally. There's a reason the fastest races have pacers, so I'd say about 2 minutes in a marathon.

It is a product of speed. In the lore of running noakes cites an article you have to be going 5:20 pace to actually benefit from drafting (if there is zero wind). This was one limited treadmill study I am sure it could be debated, I am not sure what follow ups have been done. But makes sense as drafting is huge in cycling where you are going 20-30mph.

point being, running a 330 1500 pace you are benefiting from drafting more so than running 450mile pace in a marathon. But over many miles, it still adds up and even a slight headwind would add to the effect. Elite running is a game of small factors adding up and making a huge difference. The pace difference between 1st and 10th today is miniscule in percentage points.

I apologize for moving slightly off-topic with this question: Would surging be an effective tactic in the marathon?

Say you like to front run, and dislike others sitting on your coattails; or you just really want to mess with your competitors… Assuming you have the fitness, of course.

And in this case, I use the term “surging” to mean that you vary the pace after a certain distance, i.e. speed up for a mile and slow back down for the next mile, and repeat.

I believe Panning tried that with a 4:43 mile at about 17miles? He dropped everyone that was following him when running 4:49-4:50 pace except Mantz and Young.

At that point Panning still looked pretty good, but only a mile or so later was definitely taking bigger labored breaths.

He's a great runner no doubt, but he overcooked it in that surge.

Other people have looked at and you do get benefits at lower speed. It is about 5 mins in a marathon. The faster you run the greater the effect but it is over lower time. Now in the real world you don’t get the 5mins because you don’t have a phalanx of people to shield you for all 26 miles. For something like a major you are looking at around 90s.

In the end he misjudged his move. He either needed to go 2s/mile slower or wait like 3 miles. Of course you have no way of knowing how other people would have reacted to that different race..

Only one American marathoner walks away today saying that he broke Galen Rupp in the OT marathon during Rupp’s entire career.
congratulations Zach Panning.

It’s roughly 98.3 watts or ~150 C of energy.

Oh boy OP. Betting you are an altitude denier too.

Can you provide a link to an “other people’s” analysis where drafting is worth 5 minutes? If true, Kipchoge’s sub-2:00 was equivalent to 2:05.

Leading is mostly mentally exhausting it is easier to go to sleep sitting on someone

See this is what I'm talking about. I agree with you, but how do you prove that with real scientific data?

I believe it takes a toll, both physically and mentally, but how much? Is it a substantial enough amount that it's the difference between making the team vs missing the team? I think it might have been in this case.

I hear a lot of vague statements like block the wind, do the work, go to sleep, settle in etc etc etc. but if we're going to prick ears on treadmills, we might as well figure out what the real cost of leading a damn race is.

My non scientific guess is in the ball park of 1 second per mile max at pro marathon speeds. So 26 seconds max. Somewhere read that drafting on the track was on the order of .25 per lap.

Rather than the stress of leading, I think the bigger problem for Panning was that he set too fast a pace.

My gut feeling says he could've run 30-60sec faster if he had never lead.

According to LR, the leader is doing ALL the work. If second place is doing zero work while the leader is doing all the work, then I guess leading requires infinity times more effort than leading.

A not insignificant amount.

I've never found leading exhausting in any way. In fact quite contrary, its always allowed me to relax, get in the zone and focus forward.