Marathon Trials Field is Deep with Sub 2:10:00-ish guys

The United States is a solid marathon nation. An argument can be made that it could be significantly stronger based on population and resources. Nevertheless, the US is solid in the marathon.

I also haven’t gotten around to breaking 2:10:00 yet

Our best potential marathoners are still running track.

That was meant to be a little tongue in cheek.

The weather in Orlando is ranging quite a bit. In the next 10 days the highs range from 56 to 83 degrees, with the lows ranging from 39 to 68. So 10am race start temperatures are ranging from about 50 to 77 degrees. If we get one of the cooler days, with this many guys in the 2:07-2:10 range we could see a heck of a race with a record number of sub 2:10 guys. Even if it's 'tactical' I could see a 65 flat first half and a big 62 mid second half for the winner running under 2:08.

Unless there is a pretty strong cold front (and there have been some this winter), temps at race start will be in the 60s and will be pushing the 70s by the finish (or worse). If a strong cold front moves through and temps are in the 50s (possible in Fl this time of year, but don't bet on it), then it could be a fast race as the course is pancake flat and only has one u-turn (although they will do it three times). It temps are in the 50s, a sub 2:08 is definitely possible given how amped up everyone gets for the trials. But if the wind is off the Gulf and temps are 60+, whoever can squeak under 2:10 will probably be the winner.

A qualifying race is almost always going to be tactical. 65 sounds about right, but the moves won’t begin until about 10K from the finish.

This is the problem with US marathoning - these times are mediocre by world standards and we still celebrate them. We can barely even qualify 3 men to the olympic games!

Scott fauble is the #3 ranked US marathoner. Here are the countries with 3 people ranked ahead of him /# of people ranked ahead of him by country:

Kenya - 85

Ethiopia - 69

Japan (!) - 26 (population 125 million)

Eritrea - 9 (population 3.6 million)

Morocco - 8 (population 37 million)

France - 7 (pop 67 million)

Germany - 5 (population 83 million)

Italy - 5 (pop 59 million)

China - 4 (population a lot)

Israel - 4 (pop 9.3 million)

Uganda - 4 (45 million)

Spain - 4 (pop 47 million)

Belgium - 3 (population 11 million)

Australia - 3 (population 25 million)

US men's marathoning is a joke right now, and partly because we think running under 2:10 is good.

You’re right. US mararthoning is a joke. Women’s side is on it compared to men.

A lot of potential sub 2:10 marathoners stop running after college and go on with their careers because they can make a living off of corporate jobs, the medical field, hell even in sales. People want to make a living and start a family, and it’s hard for most people to imagine balancing training at an elite level while working a high paying job, exploring the dating scene, etc.

A lot of NCAA international athletes go on to race really well on the track and on the roads. Those same guys got murked by Americans who went on to work instead.

If shoe companies were willing to pay athletes more, and we could increase revenue at events, then maybe we could have more American athletes stay racing. Otherwise, it’s almost a waste of time and money to pursue some child’s dream while relying on mommy and daddy’s money.