Galen Rupp (& Hellen Obiri) to run Houston Half. If Rupp runs 60:47 or faster, he'll move up to #64 on Road to Paris list

Back injury is to be expected after carrying US distance running on his back for over a decade

I understand that this is not an absolute metric, but Rupp has run two performances in the last 18 months that received WA scores better than Wesley Kiptoo's 60:35 at Houston in January.

Just pointing out that there's some evidence that sub 60:47 is realistic.

1180- Rupp (2:08:48 Chicago 2023)
1167- Rupp (2:09:36 WC 2022)
1163- W Kiptoo (1:00:35 Houston HM '23)

Sorry, I don't think Galen is going to finish the Houston half marathon. I would love to see Galen run like Jake Robertson in 2018, but I don't think it is going to happen. Sure, Galen's PR at 59:47 is the same as Jake's brother Zane Robertson. Maybe Galen will put in a Zane level performance? Although it resulted in jail time for Zane, my respect for Galen would actually go up if police discovered an unlicensed AK-47 at his house!

Also Sam Chelanga was only two seconds and one place behind Rupp at Chicago. I would think he would only need to run a few seconds faster than 60:47. This is just a viable way to get an third spot for the USA if he is running Houston. Before Chicago he was running really well in some of the shorter distance, so me might be more likely to run a fast half than Rupp even.

Galen Rupp will pop a 2:05 any day now.

He will break 60 wearing the new Alphafly.

Not intimately familiar with how the rankings work, but I am pretty sure that Houston will have a couple of E. Africans in the half who would be capable of running 59. If Rupp runs 60:30 and three or four E. Africans run faster, wouldn't that mean that Rupp gets pushed out of a top 64 ranking?

No. Only the top three per country are eligible in the rankings.

Yeah the only complication would be a la Valencia where an obscure country’s best athletes hits marathon standard more likely than anything in HM.

Bahrain, Australia, Canada, mexico, Great Britain all have room for auto qualifiers. Haven’t seem a start list but possibly there are 1-3 more autos at Houston perhaps?

Houston 2023 counts for people's world rankings, which is after 1 January 2023. So I imagine it will count this year. Tons and tons and tons of races have continued to be pushed to world athletics since 1 January 2023, not all are on their site calendar.

Chelanga was the last American that Mantz dropped. Rupp actually came back and caught Chelanga (slowed less) after being 15 seconds behind him late in the race.

I mean, 2:08 is still pretty good and 60:40 or whatever isn't THAT good.

I still doubt he'll get it, but it’s not that unrealistic

61:20 ish

Chelenga ran the baa half just a month post Chicago in 62:49 for 9th. This is not a fast course and a chilly day. I don't know but think he could sneak into the top 3. Just a gut feeling.

The way Rapp lost almost 90 seconds over the last 12k at Chicago with a crucial auto qualifier within grasp and no post race interviews leaves you wondering what was going on their. imagine if there was something more serious going on injury-wise he would not risk running Houston.

Early call is Mantz, Rupp and chelenga with Young a close 4th

TBH Rupps techniques for coping with pollen was via coaching. Rupp has proven himself in extreme conditions in heat and hills.

Weather is a factor in Houston. Think Rupp might be past sub-61:00 but he definitely doesn't have a shot if it's hot/humid. If he catches a perfect weather day, I think he has an outside shot at it with even pacing. His 2:08 in Chicago was pretty encouraging. Most people are 1:01-1:02 on the right day with that marathon time.

I don’t think Rupp has a great shot at hitting 60:47, but I think Bekele showed us with his 2:04 that if you’re an elite and keep showing up, good days can still happen. Even at 41. Rupp is obviously talented enough and I think age is becoming less of a factor as we see elites continuing to train in to their late 30s early 40s. So it wouldn’t surprise me if he does it, but odds are against him.