2:21 and 5:13 to 2:10 and 4:40?

Yes, it is completely possible to drop to those times by the end of outdoor track! I can say that because I was in a similar situation to you at this time last year and I dropped to 2:08 and 4:44 the end of sophomore year track. To give you a little background on my journey, my xc pr for sophomore year was 18:24. I opened up my indoor season with a 5:17 1600 (similar to you) and a 2:19 800 then finished indoor with a 5:04 1600 (I could’ve definitely broken 5 but I dealt with a sickness that put a block in my training) and a 2:13 800. Finally, my training went really well that outdoor season and I was able to go 2:08 in the 800 and drop 20 seconds in the 1600 for a PR of 4:44. So you can do it man especially if you have a good high school coach.

If you don't mind me asking, what did your training look like, specifically weekly mileage? During outdoor us distance runners are pretty much on our own training plan.

Much more of your improvement will be due to physical maturation than training.

If he sits around on his arse between now and May he probably won't improve.

OP - what kind of training have you been doing? No one can give good advice if they don't know what you've been doing to get to those times.

Hard to say for sure, but there is a chance if you train consistently and put the work in.

Comparing my trajectory when I ran those sorts of times, my improvements were not linear, and they didn't necessarily line up equivalency-wise in a particular season.

8th grade: 2:29 800/5:22 1600

9th grade: 2:25 800 / 5:07 1600 / 10:50 3200

10th grade (injury in xc season): 2:18 800 / 5:10 1600 / 10:54 3200

11th grade: 2:12 800 / 5:08 1600 / 10:25 3200

12th grade: didn't run 800/ 4:56 1600 time trial after school year / 10:19 3200

First year college: 2:08 800 / 4:42 mile / 9:36 3000

Eventually 4:20 indoor mile senior year of college, and 3:52 1500 after college.

Moral of the story is keep running, do your best to avoid injury, and don't think you can't keep improving just because it hasn't happened yet.

I don’t remember exact numbers but I probably peaked around 35-40 miles per week that spring season.

Mostly base building since June - high 30s-low 40s for weekly mileage, running 6 days a week, regular runs being 5-7 miles and long runs being 10-12. During XC I did longer distance reps - 4x800 on trails, 5xmile on grass, and 6x1200 on track are some of the workouts I did (outside of practice with a couple teammates - we've been having issues with our training and disagreements with our coaches that I won't go into). Did these maybe once a week on top of having meets every week.

So far for indoor we've been doing shorter distances, but pretty much every day. We've done 1-2-4-2-1 ladders several times already, along with "relays" where we just pass the baton to each other in groups of 4 or 5 for 10 minutes. My mileage has been 30-35 this month since I've been trying to get some more base in before the season really kicks off, but I plan on doing low to mid 20s for January and early February. We've also been lifting once a week.

My junior indoor race progression looked like:

2:20 2:14 2:09 2:08

It can be done! I ran a 4:56 mile the same meet as the 2:09 with a previous outdoor PB of around 5:15