Are there more freshman than what's listed on athletic.net that you are referring to wazzu?
I see the freshman at 16:58, 17:02, and 17:09 (the 17:09 is from Battle for the 509, short and flat). Those are awesome freshman marks, but wondering if they have more or are those the guys you were talking about?
Max CS seemed similar speed junior and sophomore year. What do you expect him to drop to? Talking NXR....he was 15:29 as a sophomore, 15:25 as a junior. Both Cervi-Skinner's seemed like they've become a bit stagnant (albeit a good place to become stagnant as they are both high level runners). Reitze improved a ton from 9th to 10th grade, same with Rohlinger's jump from 10th to 11th grade. I don't think Carr will get that kind of jump since he has been training hard and intense at a much younger age.
I can see them putting 4 guys under 16 again at NXR next year with a 5th man around 16:10-15 (Rohlinger or a sophomore that's made a nice jump)
Juniors May and King made similar jumps this past year. I agree with your overall assessment though. Regardless, repeating at NXR will be a challenge.
There is also an 8th grade club kid who should place top 10 at Junior XC Champs this weekend. 4:45 Mile guy but I think he will stay in Sandpoint for HS.
Jesuit returns a lot of solid guys, but they don't have anyone returning from the top 55 or better at NXR.
CDA won't have Jesuits depth, but they have a good pipeline of freshman (allegedly), and they return 3 guys from the top ~50 at NXR
Rocky Mountain has a ton of really good depth and they return a low stick with Cody Lucas who got 13th at NXR/20th at Runninglane. The rest of their guys are pretty far back but there's probably gonna be like 10 of them so who knows how good or not good they will be
Issaquah returns all but 1 of their guys, but none of them cracked the top 100 at NXR despite a solid state showing
Franklin returns 12th and 36th for the best 1-2 returning combo I could find, but they are going to have a serious depth problem.
Crater has the best individual returner at 4th, but they are going to be plagued by depth problems like most of these other teams.
Rocky returners on the Firman course heading into the 2023 season: 14:58 (11th), 16:33 (10th, not a great representation of this athlete- they had run in the 15:20's that year), 16:49 (11th), 16:52 (9th), 17:08 (11th), 17:11 (10th), 17:12 (11th), 17:14 (11th), 17:40 (11th), 17:49 (10th), 17:50 (9th), 17:51 (9th), 17:51 (11th).
Boise is worth mentioning in that group.
Centennial of Boise can be a surprise if they can get and stay healthy. They had two freshman run 9:54 last track season who were banged up. They return a 16:35 sophomore on the Firman course, a 16:58, and then a few guys that could probably run sub 17:00. They might be able to have 3 guys in the 15:45 range on the Firman course next year.
They were a darling of the Idaho XC threads before the season unraveled with injuries.
Yes these are more or less the guys I am talking about.
CDA has 4 solid runners returning. 1) Should Be be a 14:50 guy 2) Should be 15:10 3) 15:15 4) 15:30
They need to develop 2 of their Freshman/Sophomores into 16 flat runners to repeat.
Nate Stadtlander vs Max CS in 2024 for all the marbles in Idaho.
Jack Sheesley just qualified for Footlocker nationals, beat Cervi-Skinner at state, and only lost to him by 5 seconds at NXR. I think Sheesley and Stadtlander is the race, but really, Stadtlander is going to win.
I'm not all that sure how Boise's scorers are a possibly but Rocky's are a sure thing.
Regardless, I think everyone would appreciate it if this didn't turn into a Rocky Mountain propaganda machine.
They will be good, but they aren't the clear cut #2 in Idaho next year. Boise will be very good as well, and there are a lot of schools that have guys that will break things up. I think Rocky has a better shot of being 4th at the Idaho state meet next year than they do of contending for a top 4 spot at NXR. Idaho is going to be pretty good again next year.
Are we just going to not talk about how Montgomery Bell just qualified for NXN and you don’t even have them on the top 5 list. They are only graduating 2 seniors and have two of the best freshman in the country.
2 guys graduating means nearly half their scoring members. And the freshmen are good don’t get me wrong, but not even top 50 in the nation.
Well, for Niwot you only used speed ratings from NXN and then you used speed ratings from other races for Herriman. That isn’t a fair comparison. Mazurano (11) and Keeton (10) who were their 7th and 6th runners at NXN were their 2nd and 3rd runners at state where they ran a 180 and 176 speed ratings. Niwot also had another runner, Engtrakul (11) run 15:55 (170) at NXR SW in the open race. Kear (11) and Wood (11) ran 172 and 170 speed ratings at Desert Twilight with their 15:44 and 15:50 finishes.
To summarize Niwot returns:
188, 188, 180,180, 176, 175, 173, 172, 170, 170.
Most of their top 7 is only 15 years old, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some big jumps from them again next year.
Wait, hold on. Some of those Niwot people’s names you mentioned weren’t in their top 7 and didn’t run at NXN. They graduated no one. It takes only 5 to score and only 7 guys will be at the starting line at NXN. Some of these guys that you mentioned will be spectators at the most.
Herriman brings back 4 seniors above 180 speed rating, and Soles is known for having kids pop up out of nowhere. The Tang brothers went from midpack JV last year to scoring at NXN this year.
During track season we will start getting ideas on who are some of the underclassmen that break out
Are we just going to not talk about how Montgomery Bell just qualified for NXN and you don’t even have them on the top 5 list. They are only graduating 2 seniors and have two of the best freshman in the country.
Montgomery Bell lost to a team (Monroe Woodbury) from a region (New York) that people say should be combined with a Northeast.
Montgomery Bell was lucky that they even qualified. McCallie’s #2 guy did not score at NXR or they would have qualified. Farragut had an off day.
Calvert Hall did very well at the Adidas challenge. They were going to be one of the best teams in the nation, but Nettey (15:22) has not raced since Adidas challenge. Some other runners on the team underperformed too
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My write up for the top returning California Teams
Speed ratings have been slightly changed on specific courses (3 mile races in California, the speed ratings are too low depending on the course). These are California speed ratings, and may not be the same as speed ratings from other regions. (I had to speed rate races myself that weren't speed rated) Below is the highest performance speed rating for each runner in the 2023 xc season.
#1 - Great Oak Westin Brown (11) - 188 Jacob Brown (11) - 183 Jack Paradise (11) - 176 Marco Franco (10) - 171 Christian Gump (11) - 169 Carson Lynch (11) - 160 Ruben Sanchez(10) - 154 Nicolas Ovalle (11) - 154 Jack McMurrin (10) - 151 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch out for next year, this team already has their top 5 above 169+. I believe this will be the favorite team coming from California next year. They may be looking for redemption next year, after their 17th place finish at NXN.
#2 - Jesuit SJ Isaac Abbott (10) - 177 Matthew Ogilvie (9) - 171 Chase Cressman (11) - 170 Drake Hoferer (10) - 170 Navin Kadel (11) - 162 Brady Blum (11) - 156 Robert Fuentes (11) - 153 Rafael Jopson (9) - 152 Kyle Jackary (10) - 150 Lucas Alberts (9) - 149 Trevor Felix (11) - 149 - Jesuit has the legendary coach, the talent, the depth, everything! This is the one of the three best california team to watch next year. They will be insane!
#3 Buchanan Luke S (11) - 180 Jansen G (10) - 176 Max J(11) - 170 Michael P(10) - 170 Deaglan G(11) 167 Andrew Ray(9) - 161 Antonio Benitez(11) - 155 Amani R(10) - 151 Matthew C(10) - 151 Dylan Rea (9) - 151 Jose Rico (9) - 150 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch next year. I believe this team has the best 9th-10th graders. These young runners could potentially make huge jumps next year. Their talent potential is insane. Watch out for Buchanan!
#4 - ML King Maximo Zavaleta(10) - 187 Brad Quezado (10) - 177 Brayden Lunetta (11) - 173 Alex Wesołowski (11) - 168 Logan Carlson (10) - 167 Frank Stewart (10) - 156 Zachary Halama (11) - 155 John Sosa(9) - 150 - A new team that has insane talent expect the team to be averaging 175+ at the very start of the season next year. They have 8 solid runners, after that it’s a drop off.
#5 - Arnold Beckman Mason Nguyen (11) - 178 Anthony Barrera (11) - 174 Aaron Feaster (11) - 171 Christian Weber (10) - 170 Nolan Barajas (10) - 156 Ryan Barris (9) - 154 - Arnold Beckman is expected to be one of the top California teams for the next season. They have a solid 1-4, all having run above 170+ speed rating. They need a 5th runner to step up, and they will be set for the upcoming season. It is expected that young runners Nolan and Ryan could have a big improvement the next season to be that 5th runner. Expect this team to be averaging in the 175+ at the start of the season.
#6 Mira Costa Isaac Faynsod (11) - 177 Carson Ehman (10) - 171 Ian Hansen (11) - 165 Krish Desai (10) - 165 Carson Ehman (10) - 159 Max Mironowicz (10) - 159 JT Kaplan (10) - 155 Ryan Burger (10) - 154 Jack Barrera (11) - 151 - One of the best California squads for next year. The team already has 4 really good runners and tons of talented sophomores. This team can be huge next year. Very dangerous team next year.
#7 Trabuco Hills Dylan Jubak (11) - 179 Carsten Williams (11) - 178 Ziyad Adballah (11) - 176 James Kuhn (11) - 152 Lucan Clemons (9) - 152 - Trabuco had insane depth last year and was one of the most talented California teams going into the 2023 season. They had the similar talent levels as ventura did. However, unlike Ventura, Trabuco Hills managed to pull through in the end, coming 5th in the merge, despite their lackluster early season. Losing a huge stack of seniors, Trabuco hills still has one of the best 1-2-3 in California. Hopefully their 4-5 can move up, making them a better team than they were last year, a 77:50 at the California State meet.
#8 Woodbridge Aidan Antonio (9) - 177 Aiden Zavala (10) - 176 Inban Kathiravan (10) - 172 Iniyan Kathiravan (10) - 158 Thomas Yohn (9) - 156 - Woodbridge has never been good until recently. Hopefully this fine group of young freshman and sophomores can put together something special. They already have 3 runners above 170s+. This team doesn’t have much depth past their 5th.
#9 Tesoro Griffin Kushen (11) - 187 Ryan McNamara (11) - 168 Chase Manning (10) - 164 Mateo Allen-Aguirree(11) - 162 Parker Wolfe (11) - 161 Gabriel Raco (10) - 151 Ezra Bryden (11) - 150 -Tesora has 1 very good runner and insane depth. If they can get 4 more runners consistently above 170+ next year, they can be a powerhouse.
#10 Redondo Union Adam Divinity (11) - 183 Alexander Barbarie (11) - 168 Matthew Walter (11) - 162 Joshua Thomas (11) - 159 Kristopher Jarmillo (11) - 159 - The California team with 1 solid runner and 4 more decent runners around 160+. Redondo Union has lots of depths below 155. This team has more depth than Tesora does.
#11 Glendora Dylan Flores (11) - 182 Mathias Oliveros (11) - 175 Diago Garcia (11) - 169 Kevin Sandoval (11) - 168 Andrew Carlson (11) - 149 Jeremiah Shahbaz(11) - 144 Eamon Wright(11) - 143 - Glendora is in a similar position as Oaks Christian. Their 1-4 is very fast! All of them have technically gone above 168+, with a solid number 1, Dylan Flores, expected be one of the better runners in the country next year. Hopefully they can find that 5th man that can mix it up with them.
#12 Matilda Torres Benjamin Fernandez (10) - 178 Hunter Hannah (10) - 176 Noah Felix (11) - 165 Alfonso Del Toro (10) - 158 Buffalo Soito (11) - 151 Angel Ramirez (10) - 147 - Matilda Torres very young team that has a strong 1-2 punch of sophomores. Lacks depth but has a solid 6 assuming they improve. Most of the team has been running since middle school.
#13 Oaks Christian Christian Yoder (11) - 178 Cooper McNee (11) - 178 Josh Mitchell (11) - 167 Vin Krueger (11) - 166 - Oaks Christian has a very strong top 4 runners but they need to find that 5th runner.
#14 Palisades Charter Blake Sigworth (10) - 178 Zachary Cohen (10) - 174 Owen Lewicky (11) - 174 Andrew Razo (10) - 155 Ben Barnett (11) - 139 Roland Beckling (10) - 133 - One of the biggest surprises this year. Palisades was 6th in the merge, having come out of nowhere. Many people think this team will do big things next year because most of their squad is young. However, this team lost 2 crucial scorers. This is a very small team and has no depth or talent past their top 4. Hopefully ,they can find a 5th next year and be big
I think Jesuit LA will be the 4th best team in the South region - behind Southlake, Austin Vandegrift, and Bentonville (who made NXN and is only losing 3 seniors).
Since that’s the case and NXR is only a few days apart from the Louisiana state meet anyways, next year Jesuit would be better off focusing on trying to win the RunningLane championship race rather than dealing with a quick turnaround between the state meet and NXR.
I think Jesuit LA will be the 4th best team in the South region - behind Southlake, Austin Vandegrift, and Bentonville (who made NXN and is only losing 3 seniors).
Since that’s the case and NXR is only a few days apart from the Louisiana state meet anyways, next year Jesuit would be better off focusing on trying to win the RunningLane championship race rather than dealing with a quick turnaround between the state meet and NXR.
Another South boys team that should be included is Lucas Lovejoy. They won the 5A state meet, took 10th at NXR, and lose only 1 senior. I think they can beat Jesuit too
You'll notice that most of these teams are from the south, where the courses are going to be faster naturally. In reality, there probably won't be any teams from the south or southeast region on the podium at NXN... But I could be wrong.
