Let’s hear those predictions.
I’m going with 2:04:30.
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170
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He'll surely break 3:07 as he's talented and works hard.
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Buhlenthia wrote:
Let’s hear those predictions.
I’m going with 2:04:30.
I'm thinking 2:04:xx but I'm hoping for sub 2:02 so it can throw a monkey wrench into the Kenyan selection process. I mean I guess the team would probably be- Kiptum, Eliud, and him. But if someone else pops a 2:02:xx the picture becomes muddled.
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runn wrote:
Buhlenthia wrote:
Let’s hear those predictions.
I’m going with 2:04:30.
I'm thinking 2:04:xx but I'm hoping for sub 2:02 so it can throw a monkey wrench into the Kenyan selection process. I mean I guess the team would probably be- Kiptum, Eliud, and him. But if someone else pops a 2:02:xx the picture becomes muddled.
Lol
He's Ugandan
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runn wrote:
I'm thinking 2:04:xx but I'm hoping for sub 2:02 so it can throw a monkey wrench into the Kenyan selection process. I mean I guess the team would probably be- Kiptum, Eliud, and him. But if someone else pops a 2:02:xx the picture becomes muddled.
I will never take anything you say seriously after this. Create a new account, it's unsalvageable at this point.
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Cheptegei 2:03:26, 3rd place
Kibiwott Kandie 2:04:55
Kenenisa Bekele 2:07:58
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted. Reason provided: The above will be your Kenyan Olympic team204 -
202:30 for the win
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It's a historic race. I asked Jonathan Gault - when is the last time the 5,000 and 10,000 WR holder made his marathon debut in his prime when they were still the best in the world on the track.
Answer: 1976.
5000 and 10,000 WR Holders Making Their Marathon Debuts
Emil Zatopek 1952 Olympics 1st, 2:23:03
Lasse Viren 1976 Olympics 5th, 2:13:11
Haile Gebrselassie 2002 London 3rd, 2:06:35
Kenenisa Bekele 2014 Paris 1st, 2:05:04Jonathan Gault got some info from Cheptegei's coach which is in his Valencia preview which just went up on the HP.
I'll make my prediction on the SC podcast on Friday.
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rojo wrote:
It's a historic race. I asked Jonathan Gault - when is the last time the 5,000 and 10,000 WR holder made his marathon debut in his prime when they were still the best in the world on the track.
Answer: 1976.
5000 and 10,000 WR Holders Making Their Marathon Debuts
Emil Zatopek 1952 Olympics 1st, 2:23:03
Lasse Viren 1976 Olympics 5th, 2:13:11
Haile Gebrselassie 2002 London 3rd, 2:06:35
Kenenisa Bekele 2014 Paris 1st, 2:05:04Jonathan Gault got some info from Cheptegei's coach which is in his Valencia preview which just went up on the HP.
I'll make my prediction on the SC podcast on Friday.
False.
Viren was NOT the current 5 or 10 world record holder in '76 when he ran his debut marathon at the OG. Emil Puttemans reset the 5 record about a week after Viren set it in '72, and David Bedford reset the 10 in '73 after Viren had set it '72.
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1976 calling wrote:
rojo wrote:
It's a historic race. I asked Jonathan Gault - when is the last time the 5,000 and 10,000 WR holder made his marathon debut in his prime when they were still the best in the world on the track.
Answer: 1976.
5000 and 10,000 WR Holders Making Their Marathon Debuts
Emil Zatopek 1952 Olympics 1st, 2:23:03
Lasse Viren 1976 Olympics 5th, 2:13:11
Haile Gebrselassie 2002 London 3rd, 2:06:35
Kenenisa Bekele 2014 Paris 1st, 2:05:04Jonathan Gault got some info from Cheptegei's coach which is in his Valencia preview which just went up on the HP.
I'll make my prediction on the SC podcast on Friday.
False.
Viren was NOT the current 5 or 10 world record holder in '76 when he ran his debut marathon at the OG. Emil Puttemans reset the 5 record about a week after Viren set it in '72, and David Bedford reset the 10 in '73 after Viren had set it '72.
Kinda feels like the answer is Haile in 2002. For one, he actually held the 5,000 and 10,000 WRs at the time of his marathon debut. He did finish only 3rd in the 2001 World Championships 10k, but it’s not like Cheptegei has been reliably dominant in the 5k/10k either. In ‘03 Geb was back to winning the World Indoors 3k and setting a WR for 2-miles indoor (8:04), and he ran 26:29 that outdoor season—though someone (Bekele) worthy of claiming the title of “the best” had finally arrived.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
1976 calling wrote:
False.
Viren was NOT the current 5 or 10 world record holder in '76 when he ran his debut marathon at the OG. Emil Puttemans reset the 5 record about a week after Viren set it in '72, and David Bedford reset the 10 in '73 after Viren had set it '72.
Kinda feels like the answer is Haile in 2002. For one, he actually held the 5,000 and 10,000 WRs at the time of his marathon debut. He did finish only 3rd in the 2001 World Championships 10k, but it’s not like Cheptegei has been reliably dominant in the 5k/10k either. In ‘03 Geb was back to winning the World Indoors 3k and setting a WR for 2-miles indoor (8:04), and he ran 26:29 that outdoor season—though someone (Bekele) worthy of claiming the title of “the best” had finally arrived.
Agreed - so if he actually wins it he would be the first since Zatopek.
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Kipchoge debuted in 2:05:30, but his first marathon in super shoes was 2:03:32 (2:00:25 not withstanding).
I could see Cheptegei running 2:04:30 +/- 15seconds.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
1976 calling wrote:
False.
Viren was NOT the current 5 or 10 world record holder in '76 when he ran his debut marathon at the OG. Emil Puttemans reset the 5 record about a week after Viren set it in '72, and David Bedford reset the 10 in '73 after Viren had set it '72.
Kinda feels like the answer is Haile in 2002. For one, he actually held the 5,000 and 10,000 WRs at the time of his marathon debut. He did finish only 3rd in the 2001 World Championships 10k, but it’s not like Cheptegei has been reliably dominant in the 5k/10k either. In ‘03 Geb was back to winning the World Indoors 3k and setting a WR for 2-miles indoor (8:04), and he ran 26:29 that outdoor season—though someone (Bekele) worthy of claiming the title of “the best” had finally arrived.
I think he has been pretty reliably dominant at the 10k for sure. 3 straight WC Golds and an Oly silver with a WR to boot.
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a 26;00 10k guy current can run sub 2.
no doubt.
as bekele in his prime could do.
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1:58:45. You can take that to the bank.
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Hard at work wrote:
runn wrote:
I'm thinking 2:04:xx but I'm hoping for sub 2:02 so it can throw a monkey wrench into the Kenyan selection process. I mean I guess the team would probably be- Kiptum, Eliud, and him. But if someone else pops a 2:02:xx the picture becomes muddled.
Lol
He's Ugandan
Ha, sorry, my bad.
Oh well- if he can run under 2:02 it'll make the Paris race more up in the air.
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create a new account wrote:
runn wrote:
I'm thinking 2:04:xx but I'm hoping for sub 2:02 so it can throw a monkey wrench into the Kenyan selection process. I mean I guess the team would probably be- Kiptum, Eliud, and him. But if someone else pops a 2:02:xx the picture becomes muddled.
I will never take anything you say seriously after this. Create a new account, it's unsalvageable at this point.
Wow, have you never made a mistake before? Lol- I'm sorry I messed up, it must be nice to be perfect.
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Three predictions, in order of decreasing likelihood
1) Chep will have a slower debut than the GOAT Bekele did
2) There is imo a pretty sizeable chance Bekele actually places higher than Chep in this race.
3) Bekele straight up wins
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bekele boi wrote:
3) Bekele straight up wins
and proceeds directly to starbucks and scarfs down a slice of Banana Bread
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I'm thinking 2:05-2:06. Just because you've a brilliant track pedigree doesn't always translate to road; Tadese, Farah, kinda like Kamworor
His 59:21 in Poland at World Half Champs was underwhelming relative to people's expectations and recent interviews say he's been doing 80M/week - I struggle to believe it's that low, but if it is then that only reinforces my suspicion that this wont be as fast as people seem to think121
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