Can I run sub-2:30? Feeling ambitious but don’t want to be stupid

Read The Purple Runner. There's a part where and old Scottish guy tells a 37:00 10k guy how to run 2:30. = )

Maybe. What are some actual race times. If your half marathons were workouts where you used an actual race as part of the workout, those times are not indicative of sub 230. The 20 miler seems a little closer to what I'd expect from a 230 runner, but how much did you stop. What does runninga 115 half marathon feel like to you - you shouldn't really be very tired at all if you're going to run a sub 230 marathon after a 115 half.

Yeah dude, you're good for sub-2:30 if that's your goal. I'd wager you could go a minute or two faster based on some of those long runs. Go out at 1:15 and then gradually turn the screws at 18-20. Not sure if the course you're racing would match that pacing strategy, but you're definitely in 2:29:xx shape at a minimum. Good luck!

The 1:15s felt smooth and fairly comfortable; obviously not easy, but I wasn’t riding the edge either. They were pure workouts, just me by myself out on the roads instead of races.

As far as the 20 miler goes, I stopped a couple of times for the bathroom in the 3 mi. warmup, stopped probably 3 or 4 times to tie my shoes or get a sip of water during the workout portion, and stopped for a stoplight or two in the cooldown.

All looks great to me. I used to have a benchmark 16 miler (that had some hills) that if I could run it at marathon pace, I felt good about the upcoming marathon. Anyway, my training looked VERY similar to yours, so I definitely don't think sub230 is stupid (but I also ran a handful of 2:31-33 disappointments). As with any race, you'll get out there, will make assessments, and will find out. Good luck!

The ONLY question mark I see are the stomach issues. If these were one-offs, then no worries, but you obviously can't be having this happen in your race.

Good job on all the training/work. I hope it goes well for you.

I was half joking about the reference- seriously, read it.

But, I love threads like this and the advice you're getting from some guys who've done it.

I wish you the best- I hope it works and I hope the weather cooperates for your marathon.

I think you are certainly close enough in fitness that going out in 5:40s isn't going to cause a blow up. You will likely know some time between miles eight and twelve whether or not sub 2:30 is in the cards. Be willing to dial it back, if it feels necessary, but sometimes rough patches happen early on so don't panic and give up on the goal.

please let us know how it went. I can definitely see 2:29 or faster in you right now!

Good luck this weekend! Workouts all look on track for sub-2:30, but like others have said, the marathon can be a wild card and often humbles you. Are you racing Indy Monumental? The only thing I would suggest for future training blocks is rather than running 3 long MP tempos, I’d prefer to see a 1:10-1:11 HM race or some longer reps faster than MP like 2x10k at 5:35. The long runs are all great fitness indicators, but I don’t think doing 2 13.1 milers and a 15 miler at pace is absolutely necessary. Good luck!

As a 2:35 guy myself, your training paces and workouts are significantly better than mine were. If I hit those in my next buildup, id be very comfortable targeting sub230

Looks like sub-2:30 to me. Liking the long tempos at sub-1:15 half pace. Have you been doing other weekly threshold sessions like the Yasso 800s? Not a fan of Yasso's. Would rather see 1k-3k reps on short rest, with more volume. I still think you're there. I would go out in 1:15-flat. Pace is right early. Nail your fueling plan. The GI issues seem to be consistent in training so I would make sure to eat a good dinner by 6ish the night before the race & then not eat/snack after that. As much as it sucks, be up at least 3 hours before the race to eat breakfast. Give yourself a chance to put it all together.

You easily are lol. This past training cycle I struggled to hold 6 flats in a 3-4 mile tempos, but averaged 5:48s for a 10 mile race and 6:11s for the full Mary. If you can hit those paces for that long in workouts then you should easily be able to do that in a race. Just don't go out too hard.

I think you have a reasonable shot at it. One thing I learned in my two years attacking that barrier is just how important strategy is going into this. I ran a 69:2x in April and then come October I went out in 74:21 and I got chewed up and spit out at Boston finishing in 2:32.

I'd agree with some of the other posters in saying that going out a little conservative on the front half should be the move. Don't try to bank time. Months later on the same course I went out in 75:11 and started racing from there. Finished up with a 2:28:23. Focus that first half on staying calm and nailing your nutrition. At 13.1 it's a new race. 10 out you have less than an hour to fight. 4 out it's all about attacking home and running people down that weren't patient.

Especially since you're on the fence I'd advise taking the conservative route and checking in with yourself every couple miles. Once you hit half make sure that if you push the pedal down that it's something you can live with 4 miles down the road. Don't try to block out how you're feeling when you're making these crucial decisions.

Good luck out there. As a poster from the Sub 2:30 Amateur Glory thread I know a bunch of us are rooting for you!

Most people have mentioned your GMP runs as indicators, and they are, but this is huge factor in my belief your goal is realistic. The consistent mileage to support a relatively aggressive goal is tantamount to all other indicators. Which you have. So I say go for it.

OP here! I just wanted to update everyone with my final results. Thank you all for a fantastic, informative thread! It really helped give the confidence to race hard this morning.

Conditions were outright terrible for a marathon today, with 90% humidity in 65-70° temps. Despite that and a hilly course (almost 900 feet of elevation gain), I ran 2:33:XX, ran perfectly even splits, was not passed by any runner after 10K, and ended up in 5th place overall out of 20,000+ runners.

I felt super strong throughout, and am fully confident that I would have run 2:29:XX or faster in perfect conditions. I may even try for another shot at it in two weeks on the fast, flat, usually cold course of my hometown marathon. Thank you again, and run safe!

Congrats! Nice job running the race that the day gave you, I know how easy it can be to try and force a time on a day it’s just not meant to be. Good luck on the next one if you’re able to make a quick turnaround - but I’d definitely be in the boat of not pushing it into another one too early. I’ve definitely run myself into an injury coming back too quickly after a hard marathon, even though I felt that I was recovered within the week. Regardless, nice work and you’ll get that sub 2:30 soon!

Congratulations!
It's nice to see some here to get the work done.

Nice job and thanks for posting the update!

Marine corps? I know a couple others who ran it and it was 68 and humid