I know it's not what it used to be with the shoes and the Norwegian training methods and the lights etc (anyone else sick of other runners beating them over the head with "You know four minutes is not even a big deal anymore???"), but sub-27 is still hallowed ground in my mind.
My gut says yes. In addition to having fairly broad ability (can run XC and track well, although his current top-end speed puts some limits on his track chops), he demonstrates a good understanding of how to approach 10k on the track. I could even see him running pretty deep into the 26:xx range someday (really doubt he'll best Fisher's PRs on the track though).
The standard for Paris is 27:00, so he'll have to run it eventually in his career if he wants to run the 10k on the world stage. I'm almost certain he will.
So a 22 year old who has run 13:24 and 27:40…will he break 27? The odds are against him, but not prohibitively so, hence I would give him about a 25% of doing so, and it will largely depend on his drive, durability and racing smarts.
Isn't he running for Bowerman? No Norwegian training for him. However, Jerry seems pretty good at getting guys to run a solid 10,000m. It wouldn't surprise me if he runs 26:59 or better. If I had to bet, I'd say 26:52 as a lifetime PB.
I know it's not what it used to be with the shoes and the Norwegian training methods and the lights etc (anyone else sick of other runners beating them over the head with "You know four minutes is not even a big deal anymore???"), but sub-27 is still hallowed ground in my mind.
My gut says yes. In addition to having fairly broad ability (can run XC and track well, although his current top-end speed puts some limits on his track chops), he demonstrates a good understanding of how to approach 10k on the track. I could even see him running pretty deep into the 26:xx range someday (really doubt he'll best Fisher's PRs on the track though).
Theoretically speaking, yes. To be honest, Hicks was more in 27:20-30 shape when he won NCAA cross. 5k shape was definitely more towards 13:10. There were significantly less time trial races last track(s) season than normal. Just look at the guys he put to the slaughterhouse.
BUT he may get injured a lot, might get in a car accident, mono, etc. So many variables. But the group he will train with should drag him to the Paris time standard whether it’s next march or in 2025. Look at Kieran tuntivate…homeboy ran a fast 10k out of nowhere his first year as a pro.
We can only wait and see. Theory can only take you so far.
So a 22 year old who has run 13:24 and 27:40…will he break 27? The odds are against him, but not prohibitively so, hence I would give him about a 25% of doing so, and it will largely depend on his drive, durability and racing smarts.
And yet, he has better college PR’s than sub-27 Grant Fisher.
So a 22 year old who has run 13:24 and 27:40…will he break 27? The odds are against him, but not prohibitively so, hence I would give him about a 25% of doing so, and it will largely depend on his drive, durability and racing smarts.
And yet, he has better college PR’s than sub-27 Grant Fisher.
Well this means nothing. Absolutely nothing. Ever heard of the superspikes? Hicks is wearing them in college.
Theoretically speaking, yes. To be honest, Hicks was more in 27:20-30 shape when he won NCAA cross. 5k shape was definitely more towards 13:10. There were significantly less time trial races last track(s) season than normal. Just look at the guys he put to the slaughterhouse.
BUT he may get injured a lot, might get in a car accident, mono, etc. So many variables. But the group he will train with should drag him to the Paris time standard whether it’s next march or in 2025. Look at Kieran tuntivate…homeboy ran a fast 10k out of nowhere his first year as a pro.
We can only wait and see. Theory can only take you so far.
So far as I am aware, Charles was never injured in hs or at Stanford . . . despite working his way up to 100+ mile weeks with a (reported) high of 115 this past spring . . . and he's back up to 100/wk per his most recent YT VLog . . . so, up until now, he's been very durable.
Jerry's training is strength based . . . but the emphasis is on long "structured" runs, long tempos and long intervals at (frequently) very fast paces . . . not necessarily on high weekly mileage . . . even Grant just eased over 100/week this past season, got injured, and is now scaling back a bit.
So, Charles has checked off the mileage box . . . question is, will he be able to withstand the intensity once he starts doing grass and track sessions this fall with the likes of Mo, Grant and Sean . . .
Grant has reflected on is rookie season with BTC as a trial-by-fire experience . . . during the 2020 C19 year he was thrown into the deep end with Mo & Lopez . . . who frequently ran him off his legs . . . he would go home exhausted and sleep for the rest of the day . . . but a year later he popped out the other end better than ever, making the Tokyo Oly team in the 10k & 5k.
Most/almost all recent college runners don't respond that quickly . . . if at all . . . to professional-level training . . . but Charles certainly has the upbeat personality, desire to be a great 10k runner (he's said, the longer the better) and the right teammates to mentor him through his rookie season.
So, keeping fingers crossed for Charles . . . hoping he makes it through fall and winter training. . . then pop a fast one at Sound Running's The TEN next March . . . then follow that up with a great race at World XC reping GB a few weeks later in Belgrade . . . then reping GB a few months later in Paris . . .
So a 22 year old who has run 13:24 and 27:40…will he break 27? The odds are against him, but not prohibitively so, hence I would give him about a 25% of doing so, and it will largely depend on his drive, durability and racing smarts.
Solinsky broke 27 at age 25 when his PR was 13:18 and I think it was his first 10000. And no super spikes.
So a 22 year old who has run 13:24 and 27:40…will he break 27? The odds are against him, but not prohibitively so, hence I would give him about a 25% of doing so, and it will largely depend on his drive, durability and racing smarts.
Solinsky broke 27 at age 25 when his PR was 13:18 and I think it was his first 10000. And no super spikes.