Chances i hit BQ in the next two years

Dude you easily have the engine right now. Just do more volume and increase your long run and it will be easy

35-39 - 3hrs 05min 00sec

With that 5 and 10k you should be able to hit that marathon time easily if you train right. Your 5k is pretty good compared to your 10k so you probably need to train alot of endurance and tempo runs, but again that 10k indicates 2:40 (+/-) with the right training.

For only two years in those are very very good numbers.

A BQ is well within your reach. A good marathon is never 'easy' and things happen, but you have a great start.

The key is to build up slowly and stay as injury free as possible.

I would also suggest doing a 'test' marathon (or at least a half that converts to full BQ ) first.

Also choose you training plan and training group carefully.

You got this. I would not be surprised if you are able to hit 2:35, but highly suggest you do not overreach on you target. Patience is a virtue.

(my creds: 12+ BQs and a win at both an ultra and 26.2when in my mid 30s and very early 40s)

This is a joke right?

In the same vein, my 5k best is 12:35.35 and I'm wondering if I can qualify for varsity on my high school cross country team.

Is this a troll? You can easily run sub 3 if you train for marathon

Define: "Humble Brag"

If this isn't a joke, you're crazy talented OP. You've been running for 2 years, have never hit double digit miles, & have a 15:43 5k? That doesn't really check out to me. But if that's somehow true then you could BQ in 2-3 months by just upping your mileage + long runs. Once you get in a run or two in the 18-22 mile range, you should be able to jog a sub-3 with a 2 week taper.