Opinions?
Opinions?
sky wrote:
Opinions?
62.7%
40%
Yomif 20%
Gebrhiwet 15%
Aregawi 10%
Katir 10%
All others combined 5%
20% - the other sharks smell blood and will coordinate against him, especially the Ethiopians.
sky wrote:
Opinions?
Slower than 12:55: 80%
Faster than 12:55: 20%
Its going to be hot so faster and 12:55 would be very fast. But there's no way I could call it in a race that fast with all these guys. Slower than that, I strongly believe Jakob is a very big favorite.
80%
would be 90% without fever
He is too good and will take water breaks while breaking the field.
2% chances.
He's completely cooked and his 5k tactic is to throw a 2:23 last K.
He can't do that now.
They're probably going to run a 12:55 pace until the last 2k where they're going to run 2:30 and close in 2:26.
He will get a bronze medal at best.
Odds Fellow wrote:
20% - the other sharks smell blood and will coordinate against him, especially the Ethiopians.
They did try something looking like a team work in the 10k. But unless you do at 100% it won't change the outcome here and it seems unlikely they will push the pace to 12:40. They have nobody to sacrifice.
About 55-60%.
Just like at last year's worlds, on paper there were a lot of great runners but Jakob made them look like they were going backwards the last lap. Unless he's really ill, he has a good chance.
85% when healthy
25% with illness
The field will prevail if a sub-12:47.50 5000m race. Half a dozen men can defeat him. The likelihood of any one man winning, no more than 20%. That includes J I, 20%.
Impala31 wrote:
40%
Yomif 20%
Gebrhiwet 15%
Aregawi 10%
Katir 10%
All others combined 5%
most of this is fairly solid, but Katir is probably closer to 0.0001%
43% unless he has covid or was recently vaxed.
Josh_MF_Kerr wrote:
2% chances.
He's completely cooked and his 5k tactic is to throw a 2:23 last K.
He can't do that now.
They're probably going to run a 12:55 pace until the last 2k where they're going to run 2:30 and close in 2:26.
He will get a bronze medal at best.
He closed in 2:21 yesterday in a 13:34 race. EASILY. probably could have done it 2:18.
70 percent and I say that as a hater. He was always more vulnerable in the 1500
Would've said 80-85 percent before the meet started
Kejelcha has the best chance to pull the upset
80% if healthy, 5% if still feeling ill/slight fever
If he’s feeling no illness then I’d bet even money against the field
69% when healthy
15% if not
jakob is big favourite imo
this is his true event
hes untested but he defo has the endurance talent to beat anyone in the field and ge wont get outkick
hes made it hard for himself to be the goat 1500m runner but he can still do it for 5k