Women's 5000m preview and predictions

I think it will go:

1 NED

2 KEN

3 ETH

4 KEN

5 ETH

However, it’s partly wishful thinking that Hassan will beat Kipyegon. Hassan, while running surprisingly well, may have too many races in her legs now.

Hassan's aim towards the end of that semifinals was to win over Faith... Look at how she struggled to end while Faith just easened up

Sifan, come slowly, it wasn't a final!

Wait for the finals where/ when you'll witness faith's real kick and sprint at the end...

Faith will pants everyone.

Gudaf 2nd, Chebet 3rd

What happened to Giday?

Those are my medal picks . . . in that order . . . w/Hassan & Taye battling it out for 4th & 5th.

However, since all 5 are all-time greats at the 5k with excellent if not out-of-this-world kicks, expect them to be together with a lap to go . . . then at least 3 of them together with 200 to go . . . finally, if there is any separation at all, only in the last 100 meters.

9 of the 20 fastest 5k women in history are in Saturday's final (from WA's Top Lists):

1 14:05.20 Faith KIPYEGON Kenya
2 14:06.62 Letesenbet GIDEY Ethiopia
3 14:11.15 Tirunesh DIBABA Ethiopia
4 14:12.29 Gudaf TSEGAY Ethiopia
5 14:12.59 Almaz AYANA Ethiopia
6 14:12.88 Meseret DEFAR Ethiopia
7 14:12.92 Beatrice CHEBET Kenya
8 14:12.98 Ejgayehu TAYE Kenya
9 14:13.42 Sifan HASSAN Netherlands
10 14:15.24 Senbere TEFERI Ethiopia
11 14:15.41 Genzebe DIBABA Ethiopia
12 14:16.54 Medina EISA Ethiopia
13 14:18.37 Hellen OBIRI Kenya
14 14:19.45 Alicia MONSON United States
15 14:20.68 Agnes Jebet TIROP Kenya
16 14:20.87 Vivian Jepkemoi CHERUIYOT Kenya
17 14:23.05 Lilian Kasait RENGERUK Kenya
18 14:23.45 Freweyni HAILU Ethiopia
19 14:23.67 Margaret Chelimo KIPKEMBOI Kenya
20 14:23.75 Liliya SHOBUKHOVA Russia

Of the other 7 women in the race, teenager Cuane/Latvia has the slowest pr at 15:00 which she set in today's semis . . . next slowest is Koster/Netherlands at 14:47.

Cranny and Monson of the US will need near-perfect races just to crack the top-10.

Monson only ran the 10k at Worlds last year . . . so Saturday's WC 5k final will be a new experience for her.

However, if Cranny is able to equal or improve upon last year's 9th place finish in Eugene, she will have finished ahead of at least one name on the all-time list above.

Ethiopia federation replaced her w/Eisa . . . who was one of 5 Ethiopians on the women's 5k Entry List . . . not sure why . . . Gidey may have requested it, possibly to begin another marathon prep . . .

Even Gidey is a better kicker than Taye. The idea that Sifan and Taye will be battling is crazy imo. I don't know that Sifan will medal, but she'll definitely be in the mix with Gudaf and Chebet, with Taye relatively far behind.

My prediction:

1. Kipyegon

2. Tsegay

3. Hassan

4. Chebet (<.2 behind Sifan)

5. Taye (~1 second behind Chebet)

The real toss up is between Chebet and Hassan. Could go either way

1. Faith KIPYEGON
2. Gudaf TSEGAY
3. Sifan HASSAN
4. Beatrice CHEBET
5. Letesenbet GIDEYE
6. Ejgayehu TAYE

forgot that one, so again:

1. Faith KIPYEGON
2. Gudaf TSEGAY
3. Sifan HASSAN
4. Beatrice CHEBET
5. Ejgayehu TAYE

Race strategy? When will the top runners make their move? What will the pace be? Will anyone really push it?

Depends upon Hassan . . . if she takes it out, then game on and we have a fast one . . . but if not, then the "big 9" from the AT list above will let one of the other 7 take it out, probably at 15:00 pace.

If it becomes the latter, then would not be surprised at all to see the teenager Cuane go to the front again and try to time trial a sub-15 pr while the rest of the field eventually moves past her at around 3k or so . . .

Hassan has to hope other runners push the pace and she can get a good position... I don't see how she can win if it's slow, maybe if it's fast and she times her kick perfectly but even then probably more like fighting for second or third

1. Kipyegon
2. Chebet
3. Tsegay
4. Hassan
5. Taye

Wild guessing, that Sifan is going to chase Faith, from the beginning, trying hard to stay at her shoulder, together with Gudaf and Chebet, finishing as written before.

On another thread, someone claims Faith closed in 56.5 . . . which would mean Elise closed in approx 62.0 and Alicia in approx 67.0.

Never expected Elise to beat Tsegay/14:12 pr & Rengeruk/14:23 pr . . . good bounce-back from a crap 10k.

As has become obvious . . . Monson is competitive with the world's best in the 10k . . . in part because she handles heat & humidity very well at this distance . . . and, likely will be breaking 30:00 next year at a cool weather meet like Sound Running's The TEN.

Also, what is obvious . . . Cranny is close to being competitive with the world's best in the 5k . . . has a good kick but not sub-60 quite yet . . . possibly is the best US miler given the right race . . also feel should could break 30:00/10k in cool weather . . . however, has shown to have trouble running this distance in hot, humid conditions.

There's no women's 3k or 5k next week at Zurich/Weltklasse so they won't be there . . .

However, there are 1500 & 3k races for women in Xiamen on Sept 2 . . . and 1500 & 5k races for women in Brussels on Sept 8 . . . then Pre a week later . . .

To late to put in my predictions but I felt a top 3 for Hassan going into the race was the gold. I was fairly confident kipyegon would have fought for the win, especially after her last season.

They all ran 58-59 on the penultimate lap.

Kipyegon's last lap was 56.59 . . . as fast as she ran the last lap of her 1500 win.

Cranny closed in 61.33 . . . that's as fast a last lap as she's ever run in any event.

Monson closed in 65.52 . . . again, right at her best ever.

Typing mistake: 68-69 on 2nd-to-last-lap . . . had been running mid/high 70s up until then.