I frequently see people on here asking for prediction workouts or asking others to predict what they’ll run. I disagree with the idea (on a training and philosophical basis), here’s why:
1. The Effort Problem. We (as LetsRun.com posters) don’t know how much effort the individual put into the workout. Was it really easy? Was it hard? Idk, we were not there to watch them.
2. Encourages unneedingly fatiguing workouts. If you’re using these types of workouts with your athletes, you’re encouraging them to "prove themselves" in the workout. When in reality we want them to prove themselves when racing
3. The Psychological Problem. If a runner believes that they can run a certain time based on a workout. What happens when their predicted pace is too fast or too slow (as it usually is inaccurate) when it comes time to race? They either limit themselves to their slow time (they could run faster) or they feel slow because they can’t hit the predicted time. THEY should be focusing on competing not hitting arbitrary times.
4. The Predictions Are Seldom Accurate. Most are too fast, others are too slow. Because it’s impossible to predict what the human body is capable of (especially when you do not know the context/conditions under which it is performing)
IMO, this is holding a lot of young American runners back. The main reason is our society and American training philosophies are results driven, not process driven. Or even developmental in nature. People want to be able to post their workout on Strava and get the same dopamine hit as if they ran their best race. That’s really harmful for the long term development of the athlete and the person. Workouts are not races, they are workouts. Don’t make them races by insinuating and waving predictions around.
In the vast majority of high school programs, the goal of workouts isn’t to develop the athlete. It is to prove that they can run a certain time or be at a certain place on the team.
The goal of workouts is to build and maintain fitness, not to prove fitness.
It comes down to the fact that people wanna say they are capable of something before they’ve proven they’re capable of it (ie in a race). They want to know what they can do before they try. That’s no way to be excellent at what they do, is it?
With that being said, if you really wanna know the best 5k prediction workout, I have it for you: 5 kilometers as fast as you can.
How will I know I’m ready? You can feel fitness when all of a sudden the same/similar workout (or pace) you did in August feels like a breeze in October. Measure improvement by the effort that you have to put in to complete the task, rather than just times and splits… It’s not objective, it’s subjective. And we have to be okay with that. Everything can’t be a number, and fitness can’t be quantified by a single workout.
Focus on effort, not numbers. Or at the very least: focus on a number then see progress through the lens of how hard it was to achieve that number. If it becomes easier (less effort) to complete the task, you’ve gotten more fit.
Rant over, discus. I’d love to answer questions. Best wishes to you all in the coming weeks!