Incoming college freshman with PRs of 4:14 and 9:03 from senior year track, but currently running 80 mpw with strides being the only work under 5 flat pace since June. This race will still be during an 80 mile week, but the day before will be a 4 mile shakeout and two days before will be a normal 10. What could I do right now, and what could I do if I was in peak shape?
If it's a track 5k, I'd say 14:55 right now, and 14:35 in peak shape
Honestly having run a few summer 5ks myself I would say you’re looking at 15:20 or so. At peak fitness this past year you definitely could’ve gone sub-15:00, maybe 14:30s if you lean towards the long distances. You might be able to get close to 14:10 this year if you have a good year. Good luck!
Is your 5k update?
14:40ish peak shape. 15:00ish in base build, or even a touch slower depending on how well trained your strength/endurance is.
Kind of hard to estimate without any stats from your workouts this summer