Why there’s so much deception on LRC -well, the reason is in my opinion not that Let’s runners are utterly stupid, or more stupid than people in general, but simply the fact that we in this forum are humans like everybody else, and that the human area is complex, (f.ex running), and that the one thing nearly all of us are doing (wrong) is being too sure when no certainty can be found (ever, in principle)…
One example of the above is doping problematic / prevalence, and I will (somewhat unpopular) add the DSD discussion…
And then there is this: How fast can an athlete run in an event he never (or only long time ago) has run?!
Self acclaimed experts, common posters and athletes have fronted bold claims like the most obvious facts (sadly I’m one of them, gotten carried away by principles and facts that seemed so clear), based on simplistic thinking that almost never will be true, given its (over) simplistic nature..! And even the large bulk of posters that follow a principle of some middle way may be very wrong, cause what’s the evidence for the world being so average and middle and plain (as apposed to black and white / contrary and unique)…
I had a thread where I said Jakob Ingebrigtsen might be delusional about his own capabilities (primarily the 10000m, half and full marathon, but maybe even the 800m…) -Does that mean that I think he will (relatively) suck in those events? -Not at all; it may not be probable with WR’s in some of these distances, but (low) probability doesn’t mean a thing if it doesn’t kick in, and Jakob excels - with WR..! (Probability is never the same as certainty; doesn’t need to correlate at all).. And me calling him (potential) delusional doesn’t mean he can’t be right -my point is that I don’t think he’s got the experience from training to know what he can do in the 10 k and above, but that doesn’t mean he blindly cannot hit the truth…). What he himself has done over the years in his outlier training, and the knowledge about the achievements of the outlier Sifan Hassan here, is of course a ++ for Jakob’s long run goals, despite all un probability…
I said that Karsten Warholm never in a million years would run sub 2.00 in the 800m. -Well, I knew at the time that my statement was stupid, and that I should have said 1.55 (to have some margin to be safe), but now (in my afterthought) I would take the claim completely to the dustbin, because I honestly just don’t know what to make of the guy. And I have done some further research, and have found clear evidence for my no sub 2 claim, and clear evidence against!
In my thinking I would normally place Warholm sub 1.50 (based on his 100/200/400m pb’s). -Bad 100m pb / strong 400m pb predicts a good 800m… And his 2.45.80 in the 1000m as a 17 teen year old (probably on tired legs on day two after seven other events) doesn’t necessarily say a thing of his 800m capabilities now -he has had an overall staggering athletic development since then…
But it’s tempting to compare Warholm to Ashton Eaton, who got 10.21 / 45.00 / 1.55.90 / 2.32.67. -The Norwegian’s 2.45.80 (1000m) is 13+ sec slower than the American’s; Warholm is therefore on the wrong side of 2.00 in the 800m (as opposed to Eaton; converted from the 1000m…) And further more: Warholm’s pb’s in the 100 and 200m seem to be obsolete -maybe he can do as fast as 10.10 / 20.20….If so his bad progression towards the 1000m (compared to Eaton) will be even more significant…
I don’t think one can compare athletes like I have done above, because their pb’s are too uncertain in too many events. And there are (other) outliers like Brandon Johnson; 10.41 / 46.34 -1.43.84 -3.45.12 -who doesn’t fit the narrative at all (should have been far better in the 400m with that kind of combined speed and strength, and so on).
I still think speedy 400m runners -and even 400m hurdlers- (with a good 100m pb) will struggle to break 2.00 (800m) if they’re strength is below average for their current speed. But pb’s can trick us, and say little about current capabilities (Warholm, Brendon Johnson, even maybe an Andreas Almgren) -training, injuries, age, priorities and practise are part of the equation…
I think nobody glides or run on reserves (from a fast 400m pb) to a sub 2.00 -if you have started to fade around 400m (compared to others with the same 400m pb) you will then struggle exponentially towards the 800m, and it will be really ugly… But a good 400m runner / 400mh runner, with stamina for 800m, will of course run sub 2, or sub 1.50 or even sub 1.44. With only some stamina the result will maybe be 1.57 - 2.03, and without I suspect full crash, but what do I know.. (I have “jogged” myself sub 2, even on gravel…)
Karsten Warholm is an enigma (most runners without updated pb’s in a lot of events will be). He himself has talked about low 43s in the 400m flat, and elite 800m, and we know he sometimes train endurance, and his age development is somewhat odd, and his arguments for his stellar off events performance are either missing or hard to grasp. But giving a sport with so many outliers and surprises over time I will give Warholm (in all his obscurity and mysticism) the possibility/ doubt to do something outstanding even in the 800m, rather than chicken out to some 1.55…). But a 800m and then a 600m between him and Jakob would be fun to watch..!
But my point is that we don’t know a lot (neither do the athletes nor coaches), and that the (over) certainty on Letsrun is hilarious (my own included) -but that the un certainty makes the whole thing so much more exciting…!