Pace differential from determining threshold from different races

The answer to all such questions is always twofold: 1) just run baby; 2) just run by feel bro.

Can you post your three PR's? I want to estimate your CV.

It just looks like you’re more of a miler.

Tinman’s calculator isn’t accurate because it doesn’t take into account the fact that some runners are more speed based while other are more endurance based.

Tell us your PBs and we’ll give you more details.

Also, if you’re doing double threshold, then too slow is better than too fast, especially in the morning. In an interview I recall Jakob saying he was sometimes going as slow as 5:20 mile pace when he was running on tired legs (saturday evening) or sometimes in the morning.

800 - 2:02-mid (Dec 2022, indoors)
Mile - 4:19 (June 2023)
3000 - 8:34 (Feb 2023, indoors)
5000 - 15:04 (March 2023)

I also closed my mile in 2:06 for the latter half so I think the 800 was run beneath my current ability.

I thought I was a 3k athlete until I ran my mile PR. I ran my 3000 and then ran a (solo) mile in 4:30 the week after although I don't think this was to the best of my ability.

SO here's my guesstimate:

Critical velocity: 5.35 m/s, 19.3kph or 12mph.

Critical Pace: 3.1 min/km or 5.0 min/mile

D': 197m or 647ft (similar to W' in power)

R square for time and speed: 0.9993

Based off of this paper:

link.springer.com

The ‘Critical Power’ Concept: Applications to Sports Performance with a Focus on Intermittent High-Intensity Exercise - Sports Medicine

The curvilinear relationship between power output and the time for which it can be sustained is a fundamental and well-known feature of high-intensity exercise performance. This relationship ‘levels off’ at a ‘critical power’...

Link:link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s402...

You’ll get a better estimate of your threshold if you race a half marathon but that’s more of a commitment than “going to your local track” as Rawson likes to say and cranking out a short, fast time trial on your own. In your case you have the short distance PRs. I would base threshold off your 5K PR.

Current threshold is just a marker, it’s not meant to be a training regimen.

You should be training based on your optimal potential, not to just stay at your current fitness.

For 4:19 and 8:34 my calculator says :

800 1:59.60
1000 2:33.15
1500 3:59.72
1-mile 4:19.0
3000 8:34.0
2-mile 9:15.14
5000 14:59.67
10000 31:57.48
half-mara 71:57.93

Threshold is 5:24 mile pace.

But if you’re doing double threshold don’t forget to do your morning sessions slower. In the evening you can get close to, or even faster than 5:25, if you feel good and depending on the length of the reps you’re doing. For exemple, if you’re doing 400s you can afford to go faster than if you were doing 2k reps, while still staying under 3.5 mmol.

What’s a typical week of training for you ?

I don't think I agree with this. Current threshold CV/CS/CP) is your current performance, or fitness. It's a failure envelope, like Mohr-Coulomb. If CV/CS/CP is based on max efforts, then by definition you're modeling and training to optimal performance.

During summer, it's the typical 2 workouts + a long-ish run per week. Am on a 3 week cycle: 5 workouts are strength-based and one is significantly quicker (mile-5k).

I'd say a typical week is:

Monday: 8 easy to steady + strides
Tuesday: AM - 10x1k around 3:25, PM - 10x1k around 3:20. 16 miles total on the day.
Wednesday: 7 recovery
Thursday: 4/8 easy + strides
Friday: easy 3 / 12x1k around 3:15
Saturday: very easy 10-13
Sunday: easy 6

I'm averaging around 75 mpw and have maintained a similar schedule to this for the past couple of weeks. It's my first time averaging over 60 but I feel very strong already - last Tuesday I did a session of 16x200 averaging 32.5 off of ~75s rest which is something I'd never have been able to do before due to a lack of strength. I've also done almost daily strides - when I'd probably have done strides 5x over the entire 3 seasons in a year - which I feel like also have helped me.

10,000 would be 5000 x 2 + 1 minute.

So let's say 5.00 for 10k, 5.10 for half marathon.

These are ideal race/perfect conditions aproximations, so base your "threshold" pace at between 5.10 and 5.40 miling and pace yourself by feel, starting conservatively.