5:07 mile as freshman, can I go sub 4:30 my senior year

3:52 - 5:10

Impossible to say. Likely faster than 5:07. If there is nothing physically limiting your training, then you should improve.

You can always try the magic 8 ball. Be sure to ask about specific goal times to get the best answer.

Maybe if you transferred to NP.

Shetty ran 5:08 as a freshman and is now running 4:27/9:19 as a junior (season not done)

Definitely! As long as your training changes and improves you will too. I was a 5:00 runner my freshman year and with a lot of commitment my current times are 4:19 and 9:13 as a junior. I have lots of teammates and friends from other schools who have done the same.

Went from just over 5:0x to sub 9 in 3 years

There is no one on the planet who can answer your question.

At your age you should never be thinking further than a month out. Even then, time is irrelevant. You should be focused on who you want to beat.

Agree with Malmo, but I will add much slower have run much faster by their senior year. My son ran 5:50, 4:50, 4:28. 4:18. And it wasn't like he hit a growth spurt. He just trained hard his last 2 years of hs going from 15mw to 30mpw to 60mpw to 70mpw, all in 6 days and over the last 2 years with doubles. Train hard and you never know what the outcome will be.

Time > place

If you keep reaching for the faster guy in front of you your time will follow accordingly. I also think you need to think about your process to getting to where you want to be though. Can't be haphazard. Malmo helped my son a lot. Between Sophomore and Junior year he followed SOM and that was a springboard for him.

How mature are you? Puberty? Height and weight? If mature, likely 4:45. If immature, likely 4:30. But could be 4:15-5:20.

Not sure that matters so much, Big Bopper. More like what is his training history like. My son was 5'11" as a freshman and a shade under 6'2" as a sophomore when he stopped growing. He was shaving his stache as a freshman, but had no muscle (120pounds soaking wet). But voice had changed. The biggest difference for him was actually STOPPING growing... he was like a baby giraffe while he was growing... and just training.

It matters a lot. I have coached for a while and have seen 8th graders run 4:50 who were 5'8" and shaving who topped out at 4:40 and also saw 90 pounders run 6:00 who ended up running 4:20. Testosterone is what allows men to run 4 minute miles and keeps women at 4:20.

I should rephrase: I think training load matters a lot. Clearly puberty matters. You are right. Someone who is a "man" in 8th grade is likely going to top out sooner than a pre-pubescent twig. To say otherwise would be moronic. I was just relating it back to my own personal experience of my son... who like I said shaved as a freshman and was going through/went through puberty around that time... but still made huge jumps. I attribute that to finishing puberty coupled with training harder. That's all.

I went from 6:20 as a freshman to sub-4:30 as a senior. Improvement curves are just impossible to predict. There was a runner named Eli Krahn in Minnesota who went 4:08, or 4:09 maybe, as a freshman and never beat that time the rest of his high school career, even though he stayed at all-state level. The poster saying your range as a senior could be between 3:52 and 5:10 is correct. We just have no way of knowing. Take heart though that boys' maturation curves usually mean you will certainly keep improving if you work hard. Meanwhile some of your female classmates will, unfortunately, go backwards. On the team I coach we have a senior who is a middle-of-the-pack 100-hurdler who as a freshman went to state in the 3200. Her body changed and she just can't do what she used to do anymore. As a boy, you can just about count on improving, provided you avoid injury. Best of luck!

Impossible to say. I was a 4:50 miler as a freshman, 4:41 as a soph, and never got better in HS. Only 4:06 1500 in college (4:26ish mile conv).

I know athletes that never broke 5 in the mile in HS and became 3:50 1500 runners in college. Go figure.

Eliud has taught us that no man is limited. When I was in high school, someone could throw something in my face and I would take a half second to flinch. I had never jumped more than 16 inches vertically. It took me 13 minutes to swim 500 yards. But my best 1600m was 4:45.

Now, I react quickly, I’ve jumped 30 inches vertically, and I’ve swam the same distance in 8 minutes. I look like a different person, I’m healthier than anyone in my family and more than 98-99% of people, and I’ve gotten into 18:45 5k shape just by training 5-10 miles per week, while weighing 10-15 lbs more than I did at my 5k best of 17:20 as a teenager, and predominately lifting weights, playing, doing yoga, and performing a physical job.

I believe for you the sky is the limit, but you will master your biomechanics, energy systems, patience, injury prevention, sleep, and nutrition + D vitamin. You will learn to switch gears calmly, to rest on days it’s necessary, to be able to warm up more extensively and relay to your coach any pains you have and any pertinent info, and you will visualize yourself as graceful but not be defeated when your coach critiques your form and performances, and you will not be afraid to look your reality in the face and use it to become better

Pre ran 5:05 or 5:07 frosh year

Go put in work kid