Ready to run a 2:40-2:45 marathon?

Yes, considering your times and that Rotterdam is flat as a pancake.

In my experience, people with similar PRs in shorter races often have a marathon PR around 2:45. I am sure that with a perfect race and perfect training it is possible to break 2:40 with a 1:17 half PR, but it seems risky to bet on it.

I probably would play it safe and go out at ~2:44-2:45 pace and pick it up in case things feel really good.

not really possible to answer without knowing about your long runs. how many runs >2 hours last 12 weeks, how many >2:45, how many <4:00 kms in them, how easy or hard did they feel

you have the speed to go faster than 2:45 at least, but a lot of people train wrong and blow up

just go out relaxed without a time goal and pick it up at 20 if you feel good. You should know what MP feels like if you’ve done this before. I’ve almost never seen an amateur regret going out a little too slow based on feel but seen many regret going too fast based on watch.

I have done 10 30k+ runs in the last few months, the longest ones being 37, 38 and 40k.

All of those runs included marathon efforts. These were probably the best ones:

35km with 3x5km (19:08, 19:03, 19:05, so all 3:49/3:50 pace)

38km with 2x10km (38:13, 38:13, so both 3:50 pace)

40km with 3x7k (all at 3:50/3:51 pace)

30k with 15k marathon pace (57:05, 3:48 pace).

The 40k was two weeks ago and the 30k one week ago, they both felt really good. The other two were a bit earlier in the block and I had to work a little harder (but also because I made the mistake to not fuel well enough).

Really interesting one OP. I agree with the second poster that your PBs look in line with 2:44-2:45. You seem to have really good endurance. Think it would be hard to turn that 3:50/k avg. for 30k into 3:47/k avg. needed for 2:39:59. I think 2:42-flat is about right for you. You've been running 3:50/k in your marathon paced efforts. Rotterdam is fast/flat and usually gets good weather. My advice for the marathon is always the same. Start a little slower through 5k & settle into goal pace by 10k. 3:55-4:00 for the first couple of k's. 3:50-3:55 through 10k. 10k-30k hit 3:50/k for as long as you can. If you're feeling amazing increase to mid to high 3:40s to close it out. I think going after a pace faster than what you've been training for isn't the jump I would try to make. An even 2:42, with a chance to negative split to 2:40-2:41 seems like a recipe for success. Good luck. You're fit & have done some good training.

Just before my marathon PR at Austin, TX (2:45) I also ran a 1:16:xx half and 5k / 10 k range was 16:10-16:50 and 34:30-35 min. I made the mistake of thinking I could run Boston at 2:40 pace and blew up (partly due to Boston course). Ran 2:58 and it SUCKED! When I lined up at Austin I planned 2:45. Got in with a huge group (most of whom were in the 2:40-2:50 goal range) and we averaged 6:10-6:20 pace depending on direction of the wind, hills, etc. I maintained a steady pace all the way through the end with the only a 6:40 up a hill near the end. Wow, what a difference running a smart race makes.

2:42 is probably the wisest goal based on my long runs.

On the other hand, when I ran my 2:48 marathon I was training for a sub 3 and literally never trained at a 4:00/km pace, only at 4:10/4:15 (and I also did way less marathon efforts in training than I have done now). Two weeks before that marathon I decided to run a half marathon at 4:00 pace to see how it felt, and decided afterwards to try it on the full marathon and I somehow succeeded.

Just a friendly bump, interested to know how it worked out based on your training cycle

Please let us know how you did when you get a chance

Final result is 2:42:49!

I ran the first half a bit too fast (1:20:30). Tried to hold on to that pace for as long as possible but got a bit slower after 37k. But overall, very happy with the result.

Congrats!

congrats a 6 min PB!

Congrats !

Well done!

Nice job get a nice recovery get a nice buildup get some good specific workouts in you'll be breaking 2:40 soon

Great job OP!!

Nice! solid result, and it seems like there’s more in the tank!