Naoko start "special training" for olys

How do you know she's running 180 miles/week?

How will jogging 180 miles per week help her beat Radcliffe.

She should be getting out on the track and improving her speed.

Explain why believing that Naoko being likely to beat Radcliffe is different from me believing that Dehaven can beat Khannouchi? 2:15 vs. 2:19 is the same as comparing a 2:05 man to a 2:09 or 2:10 man. NO comparison. Naoko must improve her 10K & 5K before she has a prayer.

the reason I feel she has a chance is her overdistance training. When she finishes the marathon looking very fresh.

Regarding her miledge I'm ball parking it. Her article/interview up to 30 miles a dayand numerous Jason accounts I peg her mi at around 180. Also before Paula broke her rec by four mins no one thought it could be done either. I feel that 2:15 is like the four min mile. No one thought it could be done. Now that mental block is removed I think like the four min mile many people will start running under the self imposed woman's marathon block of say 2:18.

plus Naoko her WR was established 4 years ago. If she's been improving aerobically 2:18 shouldn't be too much of a problem, WR very possible. I've seen the Japan team on TV. They was phisios, coach cook, best training facilities. Like I said I think she will pop a suprise for us all.

The one thing she has going for her is that the olympic marathon won't be a time trial course like london, chicago etc. KK isn't at all a sure thing over abera and paula isn't a sure thing either. Although if she runs smart she is still the clear favorite.

Paula will run the Olympic marathon the same as she does all her others from the front........she will kill it from the start why would she change her racing stratgy when it works for her....she beats people by minutes by doing this.

Juma Ikangaa run 220mile/week?

anyway

Paula was not bad at summer vacation.

Paula is good at cross country and has no problem with hill.

Paula's ability cleary tell she is the longer ,the better.

I think she has much more advantage in Athene than in London or Chicago.

Naoko Takahashi?don't be kidding!I have to praise her if she runs 6 min slower than PR.

They aren't kidding, she won that race last time for a reason. Also I do remember reading an interview with her after her Berlin record in which she said her coach was furious with her for running so slow because she was in shape to run 3 minutes faster, whether he was strecthing the truth or not, he felt she ran poorly, which means there is more in the tank.

The heat will make the marathon difficult, so a brutal pace could be a bad idea.

She hasn't shown she can run a hilly marathon, I mean Tergat has run out of gas on flat ones, and he won world cross 5 times. It is different, how many people who've run real fast have been eaten up at Boston?

But really I would say that Paula is the big favorite and wouldn't put money on anyone else, however it would be dumb to not even give them a chance, upsets do happen and this race is over a year away.

Yeah,right what I mean is Radcliffe has advantage in endurance race rather than speedy race(so her abilities suggests,though it's just theory on the desk).

And Takahashi's mentor Yoshio Koide ALWAYS has big mouth.So you had better not care much.

hornet power wrote:

plus Naoko her WR was established 4 years ago. If she's been improving aerobically 2:18 shouldn't be too much of a problem, WR very possible. I've seen the Japan team on TV. They was phisios, coach cook, best training facilities. Like I said I think she will pop a suprise for us all.

Takahashi has one of the best hot weather marathons.

She destroyed the field by going out fast.

Radcliffe has not run a marathon in the heat but she has run a half marathon.

and a couple of 10K road races

and even on the track she runs well in the heat.

look at the DNF's and PB lists.

Takahashi has a 10000m PR of 31:28 on the track and 33:27 on the road. In London, Radcliffe ran a 30k road record, then ran the next 10k in 31:53, then ran the last 2.2k 14 seconds faster than Takahashi ever has.

You are right in one sense that perhaps overdistance endurance is Takahashi's best chance for beating Radcliffe as she would stand no chance at all over 10K or less.

Takahashi has the credentials for going out hard on a demon of a course and trying to break the field.

The one thing about this tactic that is interesting, is that noone has tried it against Radcliffe!

Marathons are unpredictable ask Loroupe who would probably have won in Sidney except for getting food poisoning.

p.s. 2001 was two years ago.

I would love to see someone have a good go at giving Radcliffe a run for her money over the marathon distance.

In Athens I doubt anyone will, thats why she ran 2:15, to scare off the opposition and causing some of those whe will be there to overtrain.

Here are those I would think were most likely to pose an upset.

Yanan Wei

Catherine Ndereba

Yoko Shibui

Yingjie Sun

The only women who can beat Paula are those who aren't afraid of her. In the marathon it would be someone like Takahashi, Sun, who haven't been crushed by her. Paula is human and can be beaten, I mean El G lost the 1500m at Sydney and that is like the only race he's lost since 1997. Strange shit can happen, especially in the marathon.

I agree with deuch list and Mackenzie's above comments; however, I think it would be a bigger upset if Paula loses than it was when Hicham lost. Paula's performance in the marathon puts her on another level than her competitors and despite the weather and hills slowing her, it will also slow her competitors. The defeat of a HEALTHY Paula is possible; however, not likely in the marathon.

Vipam

There's all this talk about how Radcliffe broke Naoko's marathon world record. Wasn't it it NDereba's record that Radcliffe broke? I thought Catherine broake Naoko's record the week after she set it.

Or was Catherine's record never ratified?

Average_Joe wrote:

There's all this talk about how Radcliffe broke Naoko's marathon world record. Wasn't it it NDereba's record that Radcliffe broke? I thought Catherine broake Naoko's record the week after she set it.

Or was Catherine's record never ratified?

Actually, Paula broke her own record 2 weeks ago. But you are correct, N'dereba broke Takahashi's record a week after she set it.

All-Time Top 20

1 2:15:25 Radcliffe, Paula GBR London 4/13/03

2 2:17:18 Radcliffe, Paula GBR Chicago 10/13/02

3 2:18:47 N'dereba, Catherine KEN Chicago 10/7/01

4 2:18:56 Radcliffe, Paula GBR London 4/14/02

5 2:19:26 N'dereba, Catherine KEN Chicago 10/13/02

6 2:19:46 Takahashi, Naoko JPN Berlin 9/30/01

7 2:19:55 N'dereba, Catherine KEN London 4/13/03

8 2:20:23 Yanan, Wei CHN Beijing 10/20/02

9 2:20:43 Okayo, Margaret KEN Boston 4/15/02

9 2:20:43 Loroupe, Tegla KEN Berlin 9/26/99

11 2:20:47 Loroupe, Tegla KEN Rotterdam 4/19/98

12 2:21:06 Kristiansen, Ingrid NOR London 4/21/85

13 2:21:12 N'dereba, Catherine KEN Boston 4/15/02

14 2:21:16 Drossin, Deena USA London 4/13/03

15 2:21:18 Noguchi, Mizuki JPN Osaka 1/26/03

16 2:21:21 Benoit, Joan USA Chicago 10/20/85

16 2:21:21 Yingjie, Sun CHN Beijing 10/20/02

18 2:21:22 Shibui, Yoko JPN Chicago 10/13/02

19 2:21:31 Zakharova, Svetlana RUS Chicago 10/13/02

20 2:21:33 N'dereba, Catherine KEN Chicago 10/22/00

Have to go with skylon this one.

Unless Takahashi can improve her basic speed over 10k / Half marathon then I would be surprised if she get within a minute of Paula.

As for the ''yes but Naoko could run so much faster'' crew......look at their PR's for 5K/10K/Half Marathon......if people cannot accept Paula ( a 30.01 10K performer who will probably go much faster in Paris ) running 2:15:25 how can they accept Takahashi getting even close to this with a PR of 31.28 10K....get real

Going out hard and challenging Paula would probably be the only chance any ony has of beating her in Athens, but if the Olympic course is so tuff then this will adversely affect all the athletes equally, therby negating any possible advantage for one individual.

One idea that does spring to mind is that Yana Wei / Yoko Shibui both go out fast to attack Paula, who would in all probability race them at whatever pace they go, in an effort to wear her down so that Yingjie Sun / Naoko could come through near the end ( a bit like the Kenyans tried to do to Bekele this year and look how that turned out )

Any way....it's certainly worth dreaming about ....... just one question what has happened to Tegla Lorupe who seems to have gone through a bit of a lean spell since 2000 .... does any one think she'll be able to come back and challenge as she is still younger than Paula?

I'm to f'in' excited over this race. On paper I cannot see a fit Radcliffe losing, but the race isn't on paper, is it?