ritz could break an hour for 13.1 mi?

Die with dignity!! wrote:

NO NON-AFRICAN HAS EVER APPROACHED THESE TIMES.....EVER.

Well, I think Bob Kennedy and Craig Mottram would disagree with you there (and YES, I consider 12:58 and below APPROACHING 12:50).

Your argument with regard to Ritz isn't valid. Geb ran 2:06 after being in his prime and even a little past for years. Sure Ritz had trained for years when he ran 27:38, but as just a high school and college runner. Not that that doesn't count, but in some ways it kind of doesn't. He's long from his best times in the 10,000 and 5,000 -- assuming again that he doesn't just go for the marathon.

AND, I didn't say he's going to run 26:50 tomorrow. He will likely inch down toward it. But, I don't have to wait for him to run 27:20 before I can say he can run 26:50. And, of course I know how good 26:50 is. So, Ritz can be the fastest non-African in history? Ok. I'll go with that. He has the talent. Bank on it.

Haha Flagy, Ritzenhein ran 100mpw in High School, spent already some years at altitude but now he finally starts to train and then of course will improve by 50secs....

Kennedy ran 13:20 on 60mpw, Meb also didn't train as much/hard as possible in College, same goes for Broe.

But you think that the Ritz who trained harder than he could handle since HS is gonna improve more than those guys?

Be realistic!

Flagpole Willy wrote:

But, I don't have to wait for him to run 27:20 before I can say he can run 26:50. And, of course I know how good 26:50 is.

Flagpole Willy: hands down, most ignorant poster in Letsrun's history.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

That being said, assmuming Ritz doesn't go to the marathon before his shorter distance prime is over, he has the ability to run 12:50 and 26:50 (or even faster there). Dude ran 27:38 his very first time on the track for a 10,000. To think he can't improve 48 seconds (7.7 seconds per mile) seems a little silly. One day he'll have the perfect race on the perfect day at peak fitness and he'll bust a 26:50 (or better).

Ritz ran 13:27 for 5k as a true freshman in college. His current PR is 13:22. That's a 0.6% improvement in five years. You do the math before you go making all these bold predictions.

ritz ran 70 or 80 a week in hs, not 100.

Many of you are just pathetic. This flagpole character comes on here and makes a few bold predictions precisely BECAUSE it will make so many of you go ape-shit. It's kind of funny to watch him fish around and pull so many of you along by the string whenever he wants.

K W wrote:

Many of you are just pathetic. This flagpole character comes on here and makes a few bold predictions precisely BECAUSE it will make so many of you go ape-shit. It's kind of funny to watch him fish around and pull so many of you along by the string whenever he wants.

That might be partially true, but no, at leat as true is the fact that flagpole BELIEVES what he writes. He really does, and will brag endlessly if he is somehow right (doubtful). He is not pulling our chains, he truly believes Ritz will run 26:50/12:50

K W wrote:

Many of you are just pathetic. This flagpole character comes on here and makes a few bold predictions precisely BECAUSE it will make so many of you go ape-shit. It's kind of funny to watch him fish around and pull so many of you along by the string whenever he wants.

So he's a troll.

Peaked? wrote:

Flagpole Willy wrote:

That being said, assmuming Ritz doesn't go to the marathon before his shorter distance prime is over, he has the ability to run 12:50 and 26:50 (or even faster there). Dude ran 27:38 his very first time on the track for a 10,000. To think he can't improve 48 seconds (7.7 seconds per mile) seems a little silly. One day he'll have the perfect race on the perfect day at peak fitness and he'll bust a 26:50 (or better).

Ritz ran 13:27 for 5k as a true freshman in college. His current PR is 13:22. That's a 0.6% improvement in five years. You do the math before you go making all these bold predictions.

Injuries played the biggest role there. No way is Ritz just a 13:22 5,000 runner. Now way are Dobson and Hall better than him at this distance (even though their sub 13:20s were very impressive). 12:50 for Ritz, and I think he could get that AR of Kennedy's in just a couple years assuming no injuries (the injury thing is the biggest unknown for him).

This one time, at str8 camp, I spoke my mind, and people said, "you're gay."

You cannot just throw predictions out there for Ritz and say "assuming no injuries". He has shown to be so freakin fragile that it is something you HAVE to take into account, because of his history. You cannot just throw that out the window, when his body has shown that it cannot take all the pounding. You can make predictions in fantasy land all day long, but if you want to accurate predict what he will do, you have to take into account his history of injuries.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

Now way are Dobson and Hall better than him at this distance (even though their sub 13:20s were very impressive). 12:50 for Ritz, and I think he could get that AR of Kennedy's in just a couple years assuming no injuries (the injury thing is the biggest unknown for him).

Why is there "no way" that Hall should be a better 5k runner that Ritz? Hall was a 4:00 miler in HS and definitely has better speed than Ritz, right?? And in NCAA 10k X-C, Hall was RIGHT on Ritz's butt, true? Now I know Ritz was coming off of injuries, and I know that Ritz is a better 10k and up runner than Hall for sure, but....my point is this:

* Hall definitely has more natural speed than Ritz

* And Hall is closer to Ritz in 10k x-c ability than you may realize. His endurance is underated.

Hall just happens to have been very inconistent over his career. But that does not mean that when he is at HIS BEST(he'll have his good and bad days) that he is not going to be a better 5k runner than Ritz. I think he has the skills to be at least as fast as Ritz at 5k, and probably a little faster.

(I too admit I am surpised about Dobson's progression, but he is obviously quite talented too, and was extremely consistent in college over all distances through track and X-C)

Ritz will never run 12:50, not in a million years.

Peaked? wrote:

Ritz ran 13:27 for 5k as a true freshman in college. His current PR is 13:22. That's a 0.6% improvement in five years. You do the math before you go making all these bold predictions.

Having recently helped my kids with math, I should point out that Ritz ran his 13:27 as a true freshman in May 2002. He ran his current PR of 13:22 in May 2005. I can do the math. That's 3 years apart.

Hootie and B. wrote:

You cannot just throw predictions out there for Ritz and say "assuming no injuries". He has shown to be so freakin fragile that it is something you HAVE to take into account, because of his history. You cannot just throw that out the window, when his body has shown that it cannot take all the pounding. You can make predictions in fantasy land all day long, but if you want to accurate predict what he will do, you have to take into account his history of injuries.

So, you're the prediction rule referee? Thanks for the info.

OF COURSE you can make a prediction with conditions! Just as they say for the stock market, "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance." I'm not BETTING that he'll run 12:50. Based on his injury-laden past, I would not bet money on it. I'm just saying that if he can get that under control (and I think it's possible) that 12:50 and 26:50 are in his future. I don't think people are giving this guy enough credit for what he's done already. Can't compare him to Geb or Bekele (26:20 is insane), but to think that he ran the fastest 10,000 ever in the NCAA by an American on his first try when he still had another year of eligibility left, that is incredible. Think of all the great American 10,000 runners we've had that came up through NCAA colleges who ran for 4 years and didn't run as fast as Ritz did in one try. He's also shown the guts to run with decent Kenyan runners and people the likes of Sergiy Lebid. Considering that he's still so young and that I just can't see him being content to be lumped into the same discussion with runners such as Ryan Hall and Ian Dobson, I'm certain of greater things for him down the road...greater things than any US long distance runner has ever known (shy of perhaps KK).

Last year when he won in Belfast, the newspapers over there said it was a surprise. I wasn't surprised in the least. While only third this year, I expect more wins of that nature and in even bigger races. To watch Ritz with the same expectations as Hall and Dobson and even Broe is crazy. He is much more talented than all of them, and he will end up with better times than all of them from 5,000 on up and better comparable times they they have in their best distances (Ritz's career 5,000 PR will be more impressive than Broe's 3,000 PR even though Broe may have a faster 3,000 than Ritz for example).

Flagpole Willy wrote:

Last year when he won in Belfast, the newspapers over there said it was a surprise. I wasn't surprised in the least.

Of course you weren't surpised, since you have higher expectations for Ritz than just about anyone on the planet (and that is no exaggeration. Find another SERIOUS running fan who will predict with a high degree of confidence the 12:50 and 26:50 times that you are predicting).

On the other hand, you WERE surprised when Webb kicked Ritz's ass severely in a 2 mile race, because once again, you overrate Ritz and underrate Webb (well, you are changing your tune on Webb. Hard not to after his 3:48, 8:11, 13:10 races from last year).

So Flagpole, lets hear an outrageous prediction for World X-C for Ritz. Medal in the long race? You said so last year, right? He missed the podium by just a tad though. But he's stronger this year, right? So, what's it gonna be? Bronze for Ritz? Give us something to yell at you about! ;-)

You're right that Webb beat Ritz against my prediction, but this was largely because Webb proved himself to me to be better than I thought he'd be at 2 miles. As I've said before, Alan Webb's greatness (and he is GREAT) has no bearing on what Ritz will do. Alan Webb will prove to be America's greatest miler. Ritz will prove to be America's greatest at 5,000 and 10,000 (too early to tell with the marathon). I haven't overrated Ritz's ability. He just ain't where he's going to be yet.

Ritz's poor showing in World Cross last year was a result of the blister he had. Sometimes that happens. He was ready last year to surprise, but the cards didn't play out in his favor. I make no such prediction this year, because I don't think he's in the same place he was as last year.

If anybody breaks 13:00 it will be Webb. Ritz is no Mottram.

Ritz will prove to be America's greatest at 5,000 and 10,000 (too early to tell with the marathon).

steve prefontaine was America's greatest at the 5,000 and 10,000, just not the fastest

sittin-on-a-ritz wrote:

If anybody breaks 13:00 it will be Webb. Ritz is no Mottram.

Perhaps he will. This thread though (once again) isn't about Webb. Ritz will run 12:50.