Aaron Sahlman 800 record chances.

The reason that the 800 record has lasted so long is because it's a REALLY difficult record to break.

The odds are against Aaron Sahlman breaking it. The most likely scenario is that he gets close to the record but doesn't break it.

Flatt and Sumner both showed last year how tough this record is to get. There was another thread on this a little while ago where it was pointed out that, while Sahlman does have a 1:48 PR, he wasn't really consistent sub 1:50 last year so it will be tough to better a performance that's already an outlier. I'm excited to see him try but I don't think he'll get as close as Sumner or Flatt, both of whom were more similar sprinter types to Granville himself.

Last year Aaron ran a 51.42 open 400m, that needs to improve if he wants that record. Last year Colin ran 50.26 open, 3:56 in the mile and probably could have run 1:47(1:48.07 at brooks PR even splitting) but didn't touch 1:46. Aaron will need to be faster in the 400m because I don't think he's running 3:56.

I think it's also important to note that everyone who has come close to the record have been legit 400/800 guys. Granville took 3rd at CA state as a freshman in high school and had a smokin 200 PR. Sumner is also a stud 400/200 guy and Flatt, who ironically might be the most "distance oriented" of the three still had 47 speed.

The problem is that Aaron needs to improve his 400m a ton, id reckon it takes about 48.low minimum to run 1:46, most people need more like 47.mid.

I think his best potential sits in 1500-3000m range, and he should focus on that. Most pure 800m guys don’t win NXN, that shows he has a ton of aerobic potential and he should take advantage of it.

It's hard to reach 1:46.45 at 17-18 without 48 speed because most Americans at that age don't have great aerobic development yet, whereas numerous 1500m runners with 49-51 speed can drop down in their 20s to 1:44-46. However, Aaron Sahlman ran 1:48.7 as a junior and then won NXN with a 204 rating or close to that, so he has about as good endurance as any American high schooler has had, to go with the likelihood of running faster in the 800m as a senior. I don't see how he can do it, but then I didn't see how he could win NXN after a season that seemed down from his junior campaign. If you watch interviews with him, his answers are brief and confident. Running on hate (determination) will get you a long way. I say he goes 3:55 and 1:47 low.

0.00% chance - as others have posted he doesn't have the speed. I'll take it a step further and say he won't go under 1:48.5.

After seeing Xai Ricks run 1:16.13 for 600m outdoors last week, and since he is only a junior, I give him a better shot at it. He also ran 47.27 for 400m this month, so the base speed is there. He ran 1:55.82 last year, so he has a ways to go, but it is not like he would be moving up to a new distance. I don't think he can get it this year, but maybe next year. Still, that's a tough record that lots of great runners have been unable to break, so I wouldn't bet on it.

I think Aaron has almost zero chance, but I think it is worthwhile for him (and all top HS runners) to focus on building speed. The mile may be his best event this year, but for long term development, dropping down mostly to the 800m this year is probably beneficial. Aaron seems like he is not a one event specialist, he is just a runner that will excel at various distances, like his brother.

He won cause the 2 best guys cooked themselves. He ran an 8:02 and. 1.48.9. he might be a couple seconds faster but we haven't seen anything to suggest he had a massive aerobic improvement where is say a 7:50 guy.

But HS progression is hit and miss. Rupp had a great senior year but that 13:37 was still a big outlier. Or Webb dropping a 3:53...

That being said the dude should run all the 800s he can. He will not be fast enough in college from what we have seen. He will be a 1500/3000m guy. Enjoy the short distances while you can.

So you're saying he ran the perfect race? Sounds like it.

Running your best 800 is about slowing down the least. Even splits leave a little time on the track. Positive splits get the most out of your potential.

<5%

Doubtful that he’ll be under 1:49 again in hs.

Didn't realize he was a junior but this is now super exciting for next year. Ricks coming from LB Poly means he'll be in about the best place in the country to further develop that speed and could challenge Aaron this year.

Sahlman’s biggest strength might be to his own detriment, he always seems to be too eager from the gun. Going 100% early works out if you’re hilariously strong, but is usually hit or miss by then end of the race. Sahlman needs to learn to spread out his effort or get better in the 400 if he wants to improve his PR.

Splits of 24, 28, 28, 28 are going to keep being his best case until then.

Webb’s 3:53 was amazing, but it wasn’t as shocking as you think it was. He ran a triple at his district meet that season where he went 400 in 49, 800 in 1:49, and 1600 in 4:14 (1:52 final 800m). He also ran (at the time) the 3rd fastest HS indoor 2-mile that season.

pretty amazing that he did not break the 800 record that year, but he only really gave it one real shot where he ran 1:47.

Do you think his max ceiling last year was 51.42? For real? With no preparation for it or know how? He jumped in a dual meet once and ran that. And that carried him to a 1:48? Or 1:51?

This is a slight tangent on the thread but in doing some research on the record holders, I found the full progression from Ted Meredith in 1912 to Granville in an old DyeStat stat of the week.

1:51.9m Ted Meredith, Mercersburg Academy, Mercersburg, PA, Olympic Games 7/12/1912
(for 800m Gold medal & World Record at Olympic Games in Stockholm, Sweden)
1:52.3y Don Bowden, Lincoln, San Jose, CA, North Coast Section 5/22/1954
1:50.6y Tom Carroll – Fordham Prep, New York, New York, Catholic Schools meet (NY) 6/3/1957
(also ran 1:49.2 for 800m in 1957)
1:50.6y Tom Sullivan, St. George, Evanston, IL, Golden West Invite (CA) 6/1/1961
1:49.2y Dennis Carr, Lowell, Whittier, CA, Compton (CA) Invitational 6/7/1963
1:48.8y Richard Joyce, Sierra, Whittier, CA, California HS State Meet (Bakersfield) 6/5/1965
1:48.5y Dale Scott, El Cerrito, El Cerrito, CA, Kennedy Games (Berkeley, CA) 6/10/1972
1:47.31m Pete Richardson, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, California HS State Meet (Norwalk) 6/6/1981
1:46.58m George Kersh, Pearl, Pearl, MS, Golden West Invite (CA) 6/13/1987
1:46.45m Michael Granville, Bell Gardens, Bell Gardens, CA, California HS State Meet (Norwalk) 5/30/1996

I don't have much info on the older guys but what struck me is the record holders I could find were basically all 400/800 guys. I did see that George Kersh ran XC at Taft JC after high school and was a JUCO champ in 1500, so maybe he was more distance oriented but I couldn't find anything about him running xc or longer events in high school. Maybe some older guys will know more about the types of runners the guys in the 50s and 60s were but it looks to me like, if Sahlman does get the record (very big IF), he would be pretty much the only distance guy on the list.

We know that Lagat and El G could run 1:46 because they did it in the back half of the Olympic 1500 in 2004, and I don't think either of them was running 47.mid.

Another data point: Nick Symmonds's 400 PB is 47.45, and he ran 142.9.

I'm not saying that Aaron is anywhere in their league, just that this 400-800 conversion doesn't seem right to me for elite athletes. Though it might be right for comparatively aerobically underdeveloped HSers.

(I would bet against Aaron breaking the HS 800 record)

There is absolutely zero Chance that he is running a HSR at 800 or any other distance, really.