Hocker's 3:31 and 13:08 together, are worth roughly ~7:33-34 Kincaid has 3:37 and 12:51 which is worth ~7:28-29 The smart answer would be kincaid based on the numbers, but anything can happen in a race.
Hocker's 3:31 and 13:08 together, are worth roughly ~7:33-34 Kincaid has 3:37 and 12:51 which is worth ~7:28-29 The smart answer would be kincaid based on the numbers, but anything can happen in a race.
3:31 and 13:08 yields better than 7:33-34 in my view. I think Woody is probably in better shape right now, but Hocker has similar upside at 3K to Nuguse. If it’s best vs. best, Hocker is better.
Based on the 2022 scoring table, IAAF scores an indoor, 12:51 5000 at 1295 and they list the equivalent indoor 3k time at 7:25.52. Do I think Kincaid has the speed to hit that? Ehh almost certainly not, but I think his endurance would have him closer to it than Hocker would be.
Kincaid, easily. 12:51 indoors is some serious gourmet sh!t, and the IAAF equivalent 3k time would be 7:25. Don't think Hocker has 7:25 in him.
The indoor/outdoor conversions are bogus, especially when we’re talking about BU. IAAF puts 12:51.61 equal to 7:29.78.
Completely agree John Wesley...I have said tens of times on here, that assuming relative same fitness level, you can run faster at BU than anywhere, regardless of track size. Certainly up to 3K. No wind..no oppressive heat..etc etc and so on!
Based on the 2022 scoring table, IAAF scores an indoor, 12:51 5000 at 1295 and they list the equivalent indoor 3k time at 7:25.52. Do I think Kincaid has the speed to hit that? Ehh almost certainly not, but I think his endurance would have him closer to it than Hocker would be.
Yeah but that’s BS. Why would 12:51.61 outdoors = 7:29.78 outdoors, while 12:51.61i = 7:25.52i? That’s a big discrepancy and is surely due to a historical dearth of fast indoor 5ks, and to a lesser degree improved indoor conditions in recent years.
To further call into question the IAAF indoor equivalencies, here’s how some indoor times convert to “equivalent” outdoor performances:
3k Getnet Wale 7:20.92 Yared Nuguse 7:24.16 Sam Atkin 7:28.05 Mario Garcia Romo 7:30.72 Drew Bosley 7:32.46
5k Woody Kincaid 12:37.23 Grant Fisher 12:39.35 Joe Klecker 12:40.67 Marc Scott 12:42.79 Emmanuel Bor 12:46.26 Sam Atkin 12:49.47
I’ve found it better to ignore the indoor tabs on points calculators and stick to outdoor for all performances. As for BU, I definitely don’t think it’s short or a “cheater track,” but it’s fast, climate controlled and athletes running time trials get feedback on their pace as the ~30” laps click by. Beyond that, since banked 200m tracks are accepted as faster than unbanked 200m tracks, it seems conceivable that a well designed banked 200m track could be slightly faster than an outdoor track - but I don’t have a definitive opinion on that.
Hocker's 3:31 and 13:08 together, are worth roughly ~7:33-34 Kincaid has 3:37 and 12:51 which is worth ~7:28-29 The smart answer would be kincaid based on the numbers, but anything can happen in a race.
Kincaid can obviously run significantly faster than 3:37 and Hocker maybe 13:00.