Wyatt Carr is still faster. His 3000 from indoor converts to a 9:55. Right now, CDA has 5 guys in front of Rocky's #3 and 4 in front of Boise's #3. Centennial doesn't have a mark for Bryson Blaser, but does have 1:54/4:16, 1:59/4:23, 4:30/9:55, 4:37/9:54, 4:49/9:54, 4:38/10:17 returning as well.
It looks like its CDA, a pretty good sized gap, and then Centennial, Rocky, and Boise are all kind of in the same tier. Maybe Timberline if they make a jump over the offseason.
What makes me lean towards RM is the raw numbers of athletes who might improve significantly.
Current # of runners with a sub 10:20 or sub 4:50 who will be returning. Obviously this doesn’t capture everyone returning or new 9th graders, but it gives an idea of depth.
I agree with this. It may very well be that CDA is the best team in Idaho, but I think that Rocky is going to be much better than people are saying.
From 2021 to 2022, both Heemeyer and Sainsbury dropped around 50 seconds in time, and most of the athletes who are sub 4:50 for Rocky dropped similar amounts in this same timeframe.
If Rocky's coaches can make this wizardry happen again, there will be a few of these 4:40 runners who level up and suddenly become 15:5x and 15:4x guys.
Wyatt Carr is still faster. His 3000 from indoor converts to a 9:55. Right now, CDA has 5 guys in front of Rocky's #3 and 4 in front of Boise's #3. Centennial doesn't have a mark for Bryson Blaser, but does have 1:54/4:16, 1:59/4:23, 4:30/9:55, 4:37/9:54, 4:49/9:54, 4:38/10:17 returning as well.
It looks like its CDA, a pretty good sized gap, and then Centennial, Rocky, and Boise are all kind of in the same tier. Maybe Timberline if they make a jump over the offseason.
Yeah the fact that Rocky’s 3-5 guys are graduating will make it hard for them to beat CDA.
Looks like CDA will be the first Idaho boys team to auto-qualify for NXN.
CDA better be a Top 5 team nationally to ensure an auto bid. Rocky finished the season ranked 10th nationally and didn’t get to the big show. Rooting for Idaho squads to breakthrough in 2023!
CDA better be a Top 5 team nationally to ensure an auto bid. Rocky finished the season ranked 10th nationally and didn’t get to the big show. Rooting for Idaho squads to breakthrough in 2023!
Last year, Crater and Jesuit OR beat Rocky for the top 2 spots at NXR.
Crater is looking to qualify again, but Jesuit OR isn’t looking to be as strong as last year. They were only 4-deep last year and lose their 1-3. But they do have some young guys that stepped up during track season.
Should be interesting to see where Jesuit finishes at NXR.
I think it will be harder for Jesuit to autoqualify for NXN this time around.
If Rocky's coaches can make this wizardry happen again, there will be a few of these 4:40 runners who level up and suddenly become 15:5x and 15:4x guys.
It's a lot to expect that Rocky's coaches can get similar improvements to national class talents. The more likely result is that the guys end up more like Keith U- a 10:06 to 9:42 to 9:30 and 16:40-17:10 as a soph to 16:05-16:15 consistently as a junior to 15:45 as a senior. Thinking that 10:00-10:10 guys are going to run 5:00-5:05/mile pace over XC courses is probably a tad optimistic. Those are still super solid guys. But improvement curves like Heemeyer and Sainsbury are not the norm.
Wyatt Carr is in a boot right now because of a basketball injury. CDA is planing on him being their #5 runner next year in cross but Middle School track is lost I think.
At the last meet we had no runners under 5 for the 16.
Wyatt Carr is still faster. His 3000 from indoor converts to a 9:55. Right now, CDA has 5 guys in front of Rocky's #3 and 4 in front of Boise's #3. Centennial doesn't have a mark for Bryson Blaser, but does have 1:54/4:16, 1:59/4:23, 4:30/9:55, 4:37/9:54, 4:49/9:54, 4:38/10:17 returning as well.
It looks like its CDA, a pretty good sized gap, and then Centennial, Rocky, and Boise are all kind of in the same tier. Maybe Timberline if they make a jump over the offseason.
What makes me lean towards RM is the raw numbers of athletes who might improve significantly.
Current # of runners with a sub 10:20 or sub 4:50 who will be returning. Obviously this doesn’t capture everyone returning or new 9th graders, but it gives an idea of depth.
Boise - 5
Centennial - 8
CDA - 6
MV - 6
Timberline - 8
Rocky - 14
Average 3200 for CDA top 5 returners off lifetime bests: 9:40. That doesn’t include the kid that is worth 9:50 coming in. If you include him, it’s 9:36. 3-5 have an average time of 9:49, but once again, 9:43 if you include Carr.
Rocky: also 9:40. 3-5 is 10:03, however.
Depth doesn’t mean a ton if your 3rd finishes behind another team’s #6.
Rocky Mountain ran yesterday. Two more of their guys qualified for the district meet in the 3200. Their 1600's haven't converted super well to the 3200 so far, but yesterday changed that up a bit.
Pierce Richardson - 4:40/10:07/16:27
Reece Miller - 4:42/10:17/16:34
It now looks like they have 14 guys who could choose to run in the 3200 at districts. All the bolded ones will be returning next year:
You can't put a lot of stock into Idaho times because the weather can change dramatically within the span of an hour or two. The 1600s yesterday ran in Idaho were gnarly due to some wild wind that blew through....then the 3200s were close to ideal.
The weather was brutal at 6. At 8-9 it was amazing. The 100 at that meet was won in 11.33 by a guy that has run 10.80. Second was 11.47 by a 11.04 guy. Wind calculators put that as a 15 mph headwind. Gusts were up to 25 mph yesterday, and may have been higher during the 1600.
The 4x800 teams are starting to be pretty clear for each team. Rocky looks like they have the luxury of decent #5 and #6 boys. It looks like 3 teams are probably locks to make the state meet out of District III and then it will be a battle between 4 others to take the last 2 spots.
With Boise, Centennial, and Rocky all being in contention for the state title, I don't know that any of them will have the option of running anyone other than their absolute best teams. I think this probably also locks in who is competing in each event for each school. Rocky will likely need to run Sainsbury, Heemeyer and Lucas all in the 4x800, 800, 1600, and 3200. Boise will probably need to run Kemper and Helder in the 4x800, 800, 1600, and 3200. Helder is far enough down in the 1600 (mainly looks like he hasn't run an honest effort in it yet) that they may not consider running him there. Centennial will need to have Blaser run the 4x800, 800, 1600, and 4x400.
Lots of guys are going to be running 4 events at Districts and State. If the 800 and 1600 are both fast from the gun, it could totally keep some big guys out of qualifying for the 800.
Boise may have their best shot to win state if they have Kemper push the 1600 pace and not run Helder in the 1600 and then Helder push the 800 pace. I imagine that could make it sketchy for Heemeyer, Lucas, and Blaser (as well as any other Centennial boys) to qualify in the 800. Blaser probably has less of an issue with it given that he's run 1:54. Those coaches certainly have their math cut out for them.
Other guys that are possible qualifiers in both the 800 and 1600 are Oclan Ryan, Niko Mann, and Nathan Stadtlander. How many of those guys forgo the 1600 to run the 800?
Heemeyer is running the 800, 1600, 3200, 4x800. Sainsbury is running the same. Cody Lucas is going 1600, 3200, 4x400. Cole Reed is going 800, 4x800, 4x400.
Noe Kemper is going 3200, 1600, 4x800, 4x400. Kaden Helder is going 800, 3200, 4x800, 4x400.
Stadtlander is going 400, 800, 4x400.
Bryson Blaser is going 800, 1600, 4x800, 4x400.
Niko Mann is going 800, 1600, 4x800, 4x400.
Andrew Ringert is going 1600, 3200, 4x800.
Wil Ihmels is going 800, 1600, 3200, 4x800.
Oclan Ryan is going 800, 1600, 4x800, 4x400.
I think that accounts for most of the top guys. Interesting that Stadtlander and Helder went with no 1600m. There will be scratches, so some guys may have events thinned out a bit. I'm pretty intrigued by the guys running the 800m, especially after the 1600m. There's a possibility that everyone not named Sainsbury or Blaser that's doing that doesn't make the 800m state field. Almost all of them should place better in the 1600m than they would in the open 800m field if they ran that alone.
Meanwhile, Districts IV-VI sees 800 and 1600 fields where only the top guy in the 800 would make the fast heat in District III. He would come in seeded 16th. Top 3 go for each event.
The top 1600 entry would come in seeded 23rd. The 3200 looks like they will at least have a couple boys that will be competitive at state.
The #3 seed out of that district has run 2:05.31, 4:36.60, and 9:51.33. The top relay team qualifies out of District I-II and District IV-VI, with an at large between the two. Rigby is running a 4x800 team with 2:00, 2:07, 2:06, and essentially a 2:03. Thunder Ridge is running a 2:05, 2:06, 2:12, and a guy that has run 4:36/9:43. Lake City looks like they couldn't assemble a 8:30 team.
There's going to be 5 teams out of Boise that run 8:04 or faster to qualify, and a couple teams that probably get left out with 8:05-8:08 times. CDA will be competitive, but then you are going to have an 8:15 team and then an 8:30 team out of one of those other districts.
Having the at large relay spot not be between all the districts is a blunder. Maybe Idaho should consider relay teams having to run a qualifying mark during the season to be eligible for consideration for an at large berth- say something like 8:15 for the 4x800. Auto berths still go for winning your district meet, but the last couple spots are determined by drop down order of fastest non-qualifiers over the course of the season. Across the board, the 6th place relay team in Boise will be considerably faster than the at large that comes out of the other districts. Every single team that qualifies out of the District III meet in the 4x800 will likely be able to run a team with 0 of their qualifying runners at state and have a shot at not being last. Boise, Rocky, and Centennial are locks, but I would be frustrated if I'm the one of the teams that get left out between Timberline, Eagle, Mountain View, and Owyhee.
Idaho just isn’t a state where you can complain about not making it to state. In a small state with 5 divisions, odds of going to state just much better than most of the country.
Back in the day my HS had a kid who ran a 1:54 800 both junior and senior years and never even made it it state. Uphill, both ways.